Lagniappe

It’s Analyst Forecast Season


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This week, we’ll begin our year-in-review as the analyst forecasts for 2025 start rolling in. We’ll balance those predictions by examining the volatility of the S&P 500 and the market’s historical performance. We’ll also continue our cryptocurrency conversation by considering it a speculative asset similar to gold while so much of it has no utility. We end with a historical look at markets in year 1 of presidential terms and how that data, coupled with the earnings variable, may predict a slight pullback.


Key Takeaways

  • [00:17] - It’s analysts’ prediction season
  • [02:56] - Earnings are the big variable in forecasting
  • [10:48] - Treating Bitcoin as a speculative asset similar to gold
  • [13:19] - Many new cryptocurrencies are scammy and lack utility
  • [19:08] - Why history tells us there could be a pullback in 2025 


  • View Transcript



    Links

    • Roche: The average gain in an up year for the stock market since 1928 is +21%. The average loss in a down year in that same timeframe was -13%.
    • Ro: 22 eye-catching charts as we consider what's next for the stock market
    • Factset Earnings Insight
    • Hedgeye: Fartcoin's market cap is now greater than 38% of all American publicly-traded companies.
    • Tulipmania: About the Dutch Tulip Bulb Market Bubble


    • Connect with our hosts

      • Doug Stokes
      • Greg Stokes
      • Stokes Family Office

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        • Disclosure

          The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.


          Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

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