The world that Compass has long predicted is now becoming self-evident: Britain no longer lives in its two-party system. The Conservative-Labour duality that has dominated British politics since the 20th Century is no longer a given. Our politics has fragmented.

Five parties are now regularly polling in double figures. Reform have led every poll since May 2025, Labour are sitting at half of their 2024 vote share in under two years, the Tories sit in the wilderness. Amongst all of this, the Greens have surged, reaching all-time polling highs of 21%, while the Lib Dems are beginning to stagnate in fifth place and their own internal divisions are starting to show.

So how do we make sense of all of this? How has it happened and which voters are going where?

To get into the detail of all of it, our Director Neal Lawson is joined by Persuasion UK’s Steve Akehurst. Persuasion have recently released their new paper, ‘Revolt on the left: Getting to know Labour’s ‘Progressive Defectors”, showing how the largest swathes of Labour’s 2024 voters are going to the Green Party instead of Reform.

Steve Akehurst is Director of Persuasion UK and leads their research work. He has spent his career working at the intersection of politics, policy and public attitudes, with a focus on communications-orientated polling research. In recent years, he has specialised in global attitudes to the Net Zero transition. In addition, Steve has written extensively about UK electoral battlegrounds, being the first person to coin the term ‘Blue Wall’ and define these constituencies in a UK context. His work has featured in the likes of The Times, Telegraph, FT and Guardian.

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In this bonus episode, Neal and Lena are joined by the political commentators Megan Kenyan and  Peter Kellner to dissect the result of this week's by-election in Gorton & Denton.

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One of Compass’ evergreen campaigns is that for proportional representation. Doing away with the archaic first-past-the-post voting system is something self-evident to the new politics we here at Compass are trying to build. Ensuring cross-party collaboration and the best of all progressive ideas will be key to a democratic system that works in the people’s best interest going forward.

But there’s a darker side to FPTP too: how it contributes to inequality.

This little-researched area of the ramifications of our voting system and the political-socioeconomic system it exacerbates is now being dragged to the front. Our new paper, ‘Lifting the Lid on Britain’s Pressure-Cooker Politics’, authored by Stuart Donald, shows just how stark the links between the two are.

Joining our Deputy Director, Lena Swedlow, to talk about this are:

• Stuart Donald, author of ‘Lifting the Lid on Britain’s Pressure-Cooker Politics’ and ‘The Temper Trap‘. Stuart is a researcher and writer, committed to using data to prove that in today’s world, the First Past the Post electoral system no longer works and is driving countries that use it to destruction. A native of Perth, Stuart now lives in Linlithgow and works in Edinburgh where he leads a research and data analytics team. Stuart is also a husband, a dad and a supporter of Aberdeen FC.
• Emma Harrison is Chief Executive of Make Votes Matter and leads the organisation with a key focus on driving forward better governance, higher levels of engagement with the public and persuading politicians to support the principle of fair votes for all. She was the founding Chief Executive of IMIX, a not-for-profit communications agency dedicated to transforming public attitudes on migration. Emma’s passion for using strategic communications to drive social change has been a defining feature of her work. Throughout her career, Emma has been deeply committed to engaging the public and building movements for change. She has held senior leadership roles in a range of charities, spanning international development, the disability sector, and the consumer rights movement. Her expertise extends across multi-channel communications, policy development, and advocacy, which began with her formative experience working at the European Parliament. Outside of work Emma is an Arsenal season ticket holder, a mudlarker,  wild swimmer and is owned by her two dogs.

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‘We’re living through unprecedented times’ seems to be the slogan of the past decade now, which is a grim reality. But, when facing the international space, it’s difficult to argue. The rampant chaos that has been seen through international relations since Brexit and Donald Trump’s first election as US President seems to be reaching an apex.

Between the recent incursion into Venezuela, overtures towards Greenland and Iran – the former directly calling into question the 80-year sanctity of NATO – American imperialism is taking on a dimension we’ve never seen before. This comes with a backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine War entering its fifth year, a potential European reorientation towards China as the behemoth still threatens Taiwan with force, and the genocide in Gaza showing the international law to be a sham.

Joining our director, Neal Lawson, to talk about this are two international experts:

• Mary Kaldor is Professor Emeritus of Global Governance and Director of the Conflict Research Programme at the LSE. She has pioneered the concepts of new wars and global civil society. Her elaboration of the real-world implementation of human security has directly influenced European and national governments. She is the author of numerous works including New and Old Wars: Organised Violence in a Global Era, International Law and New Wars, and Global Security Cultures (2018).
• Nick Dearden has been the director of Global Justice Now since 2013, and a campaigner against corporate globalisation and for global economic justice for over 20 years. He was a leading voice in the UK and European movement against the now‑abandoned EU‑US trade deal (TTIP), and subsequently against the US-UK trade deal, about which he wrote a short book, Trade Secrets. Nick started his career at War on Want, and went on to be corporates campaign manager at Amnesty International UK, and then director of Jubilee Debt Campaign (now Debt Justice), where he built strong relationships with campaigners in the global south. His book, Pharmanomics: How Big Pharma Destroys Global Health, was published by Verso in 2023.

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This EMERGENCY episode of It's Bloody Complicated was deemed necessary due to the rapidly moving events of the past weekend. Recorded on Monday 9th February 2026, the day after Morgan McSweeney resigned as the Prime Minister's Chief of Staff, and the same day that Tim Allen resigned as the PM's Director of Communications - before the Cabinet gave Starmer full-throated support online - there is a sincere feeling that this is far beyond the beginning of the end of this Government.

To discuss what the Labour Party can do to revive itself in the eyes of the public and its own membership, Compass Director Neal Lawson is joined by Paula Barker (MP for Liverpool Wavertree), Clive Lewis (MP for Norwich South), Kerry Postlewhite (Interim Council Chair of Mainstream Labour) and Luke Hurst (National Coordinator of Mainstream Labour).

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Even for the most stalwart party member, the meteoric rise of popularity for the Green Party since the 2024 General Election would have caught them off guard. After a record-setting performance at the election – 6.8% vote share and four returned MPs – there were questions of how they could ensure they went from strength-to-strength. As it turned out, this came in the form of a new leadership team.

In September 2025, Zack Polanski was elected leader of the Green Party, with Rachel Millward and Mothin Ali elected as co-Deputies. Since then, the Greens are now averaging 15% in national polls, reaching highs of 18% with certain pollsters – and beating Labour in multiple polls.

So how did this happen and how do they take advantage of it to ensure that 15+ percent turns into national conversation and significant seat returns?

To discuss all of this, we’re overjoyed to have Compass Deputy Director Lena Swedlow joined by Green Party Deputy Leader Rachel Millward.

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The elections happening for the Welsh Senedd in 2026 are held at the same time as the English local elections and the vote for the Scottish Parliament – but there’s an argument to be made that they’re by far the most important ones happening on May 7th.

Since it was first elected in 1999, Labour have been the story of Wales. They have held a plurality of seats and have formed all Welsh Governments, be that majority, minority or coalition. They’ve never received less than 29.6% of the vote in either the constituency or regional list ballots.

Yet, four months out, opinion polls have them as low as 10%.

In their place stand two diametrically opposed forces: on one side, as in all British politics, stand the right-wing Reform, polling near 30%.

And on the other stands the Party of Wales, Plaid Cymru. They currently lead polls with highs of 33% and took one of their biggest scalps back in October, beating the surging Reform in the Caerphilly by-election for a Westminster MP.

The addition of a completely new voting system for the Senedd adds a wrinkle to proceedings also, as it moves to a closed-list proportional system in 16 constituencies across the country.

With the country on a precipice, we were joined by the Leader of Plaid Cymru, Rhun ap Iorwerth, to discuss what the future of Wales looks like and what Plaid Cymru’s plan is should they be successful in May.

Rhun has been the Leader of Plaid since 2023, before which he was Deputy Leader for five years, and has served as Member of the Senedd for Ynys Môn since 2013. Before this, he worked as a journalist, becoming BBC Wales’s Chief Political Correspondent in 2001, a post he held for five years, before moving into presenting roles.

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The elections happening for the Welsh Senedd in 2026 are held at the same time as the English local elections and the vote for the Scottish Parliament – but there’s an argument to be made that they’re by far the most important ones happening on May 7th.

Since it was first elected in 1999, Labour have been the story of Wales. They have held a plurality of seats and have formed all Welsh Governments, be that majority, minority or coalition. They’ve never received less than 29.6% of the vote in either the constituency or regional list ballots.

Yet, four months out, opinion polls have them as low as 10%.

In their place stand two diametrically opposed forces: on one side, as in all British politics, stand the right-wing Reform, polling near 30%.

And on the other stands the Party of Wales, Plaid Cymru. They currently lead polls with highs of 33% and took one of their biggest scalps back in October, beating the surging Reform in the Caerphilly by-election for a Westminster MP.

The addition of a completely new voting system for the Senedd adds a wrinkle to proceedings also, as it moves to a closed-list proportional system in 16 constituencies across the country.

With the country on a precipice, we were joined by the Leader of Plaid Cymru, Rhun ap Iorwerth, to discuss what the future of Wales looks like and what Plaid Cymru’s plan is should they be successful in May.

Rhun has been the Leader of Plaid since 2023, before which he was Deputy Leader for five years, and has served as Member of the Senedd for Ynys Môn since 2013. Before this, he worked as a journalist, becoming BBC Wales’s Chief Political Correspondent in 2001, a post he held for five years, before moving into presenting roles.

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The New Year is, understandably, a time for both self-reflection and for figuring out the future. With January comes confronting what you might want to happen in your life.

But in politics, what you want to happen and what you think is going to happen can be two very separate things. With some pivotal local elections coming in May, and both the Welsh Senedd and Scottish Parliament facing significant changes in composition, we’re convening some voices to have a go at predicting just what is going to happen this year.

We were delighted to be joined by previous It’s Bloody Complicated guest, Member of Parliament for Brent East, Dawn Butler. With over 20 years of experience in Parliament, Dawn knows a thing or two about how political years pan out.

But before this, the Compass team joined the call to provide an update on their work from the end of the year and for where their priorities lie going into 2026. 

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The launch of Mainstream, the election of Zack Polanski as Green Party leader, Angela Rayner’s resignation and Peter Mandelson’s sacking – just some of the headline events of another chaotic year in British politics.

2025 may not have had a General Election like last year, but the first full year of a Labour government since 2009 was never going to be dull. At this time of year it’s good to take stock of just what happened so that we can all launch into making 2026 something very special.

On It’s Bloody Complicated, we were delighted to be joined by two dynamic, respected voices in the journalist scene to have a look back at the political year that was 2025: Emma Burnell and Gaby Hinsliff.

Emma Burnell is the Editor of LabourList, taking over the role in September. She has worked with the affiliated Fabian Society for four years as their media consultant, and has also been a consultant for Labour’s Environment Campaign SERA for the last year and a half. She previously served on the National Policy Forum as Socialist Societies representative, and served on the executive committees of Labour Housing Group, SERA and Labour Women’s Network. Burnell has worked in political and campaign communications for over 20 years, bringing her expertise and insight to issues as diverse as social housing, devolution and the environmental and climate crisis.

Gaby Hinsliff is a columnist and feature writer with over 17 years’ experience covering politics and public policy for a range of British media. She currently writes weekly columns for The Guardian and for Grazia magazine, plus a range of freelance writing and broadcasting, and was the youngest ever political editor of a British national newspaper when she became Editor of The Observer in 2004.

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