Jefferies EMEA Market Minutes

By Meredydd Watts

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Daily insight into equity markets including research calls, factor & sector analysis, key macro events and trends ---- THIS IS NOT EQUITY RESEARCH: This material is a marketing com... more

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FAQs about Jefferies EMEA Market Minutes:

How many episodes does Jefferies EMEA Market Minutes have?

The podcast currently has 366 episodes available.

Jefferies EMEA Market Minutes episodes:

August 04, 2020 Tuesday 4th August - Europe -30bps, very different picture to what we saw in the US overnight
• Europe is trading -30bps this morning, mostly inline with the move in the S&P futures -20bps
• In the US overnight it was large cap tech that outperformed vs Commods lagging. – Very different picture in Europe.
• In fact in the US the Nasdaq 100 reached record highs as did Apple and Microsoft also gained as it made headway towards a deal for US operations of TikTok
• Asia was strong overnight HK +2%m, as Tech was better in the region. Also helped by a slowdown in the rate of coronavirus infections in Hong Kong. And sentiment was also helped in the US as California, Georgia report smallest rise in cases in nearly a month.
• In terms of sectors, there is a definite Risk on Skew, Oil & Gas +2% as BP/ +>7%
• EasyJet +10% after issuing 3Q Trading statement: The CEO said they have seen higher than expected level of demand with load factor of 84% in July" and bookings for the summer are better than expected. The company stated that they have decided to expand our schedule over 4Q to fly ~40% of capacity.
• Value is a notable outperformer, +1.1%
• DGE -7% after reported numbers this morning which were a miss across the boards - stock is trading -7%
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6min
August 03, 2020 Monday 3rd August - Broad based resilient PMI data attempting to offset poor banks earnings
Recorded 10:30 am GMT / 5:30 EST

* Europe marginally up on the day - Banks and Travel sector weak on newsflow so value factor basket under performers
* Germany notable outperformer, +1% following decent PMI data (follows China overnight)
* Healthcare in focus with Siemens Healthineers' $16b acquisition off Varian Medical
* Fed speak focus today - lots of commentary expected later, note over the weekend Kashkari floated the idea of the US locking down again for 4-6 weeks...
* UK virus strategy in focus with press at the weekend criticizing the pub reopening process suggesting it risks schools now not being able to open in September

THIS IS NOT EQUITY RESEARCH: This material is a marketing communication and is not and should not be construed as investment research Please refer to Jefferies’ important disclosure via this link: www.jefferies.com/globaljefferiesllc
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6min
July 31, 2020 Friday 31st July - Europe +50bps lagging S&P futures again
• Europe is +50bps, so only a modest recovery considering the >2% de-risking move we saw yesterday.
• Focus on $ again as DXY hits 2yr lows,
• Risk off evident in the Bond mkt overnight as US10yr yield continues lower 0.52% seeing similar moves in UK, German & Spain
• €/$ We had argued before that a sustained rise above 1.20 would put rate cuts back on the agenda.
• Just looking at Asia overnight, the region was pretty mixed, SHCOMP was the outperformer and closed +70bps after Slightly better than expected China July Mfg PMI at 51.1 vs 50.8 exp... But elsewhere NKY -~3% and HSI flat.
• In the UK we are relocking down parts of Northern England
• Just some data to be aware of this morning we had the French 2Q GDP -13.8% cons -15.2% so slight beet there, however Spain -18.5%, was worse than expected) and Italy -17.3% inline.
• In the commodity space; Brent and Crude both +1% and Gold +1% too is headed for the biggest monthly gain in more than four years.
• Tech +2.5% is outperforming on inflated volumes
• Airlines -3%: IAG -7% says it will take until at least 2023 for demand to recover to 2019 levels and proposed a capital raise up to EUR2.75b
• Danny Kirsche has a very interesting technical call on airlines and travel sector.... He called the rally perfectly last time is now flagging that technically, they are looking very similar to their May lows.
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7min
July 30, 2020 Thursday 30th July-big risk off trade led by Super Thursday of earnings
Value basket underperforming led by banks and autos
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5min
July 29, 2020 Wednesday 29th July - Banks & Tech earnings underwhelm in Europe. Focus on Fed later today
Recorded 10am GMT / 5am EST
* Europe marginally down on the day. Slightly higher volumes with earnings to the fore - but lack of conviction with the Fed later today
* On balance market expecting a dovish tone from the Fed but we discuss the difference between dovish speak and action
* Banks and Tech lagging on earnings... Retail and Luxury outperform

THIS IS NOT EQUITY RESEARCH: This material is a marketing communication and is not and should not be construed as investment research
Please refer to Jefferies’ important disclosure via this link: www.jefferies.com/globaljefferiesllc
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7min
July 28, 2020 Tuesday 28th July- Futures being hit on light volumes. Earning focus a big feature.
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5min
July 27, 2020 Monday 27th July
$ weakness big focus ahead of big macro and earnings week
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5min
July 24, 2020 Friday 24th July - Europe -120bps
• Rising tensions as China retaliated to Houston consulate shutdown by ordering shutdown of US consulate in Chengdu.
• Tech names leading Europe lower -3%
• SXXP +80bps turnaround since then after a flurry of positive European PMI data
• The Eurozone PMI composite came in at 54.8 vs cons 51.1
• Cellnex -5% post confirming Sells 13.2m Existing Shares at EU57/Share. This was part of the rights issue announced yday.
• Vodafone -5% a lot of incoming why, appears to be some disappoint that there was only a modest beat to 1Q Service Rev growth & co. only reit guidance. Some concerns about potential deteriorating trends.
• IMI +9% post blow out earnings update, Expecting big earnings upgrades.
• Centrica +20% post announcing sale US biz, co. received £2.8bn which was almost £1bn more than expected.
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6min
July 23, 2020 Thursday 23rd July- Europe trading higher led by +ve earning sentiment
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6min
July 22, 2020 Wednesday 22nd July - Europe ->1% with muted volumes, SXXP volumes half that of yesterday
• The US markets were weak into the close last night , so this was mostly after the Senate leader McConnell said that he does not expect congress to pass the stimulus bill in next two weeks, to put this in context, the draft for this stimulus bill was due yesterday.
• Trump’s payroll tax cut proposal which is opposed by the Democrats and also does not have widespread support among the Republicans.
• In the US Total reversal on Mondays rhetoric with Growth names weak vs value up (and Energy +6% big driver there) --- so the market is finding it very challenging to find consistency. VIX +6%
• Virus news: study has suggested that recovering from Covid may not offer much protection from future infections for those with a mild case that did not require intensive care... The researchers found that antibody levels fell quickly, current estimates seems to be around 90 days, and occurred more rapidly than with SARS.
• Oil & Gas (yesterday’s winner) underperforming -2% as we see a risk off led selloff in crude and Brent both down around 1%..
• Valeo -8% after reporting earnings miss last night, we have reiterated out underperform rating on the stock.
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7min

FAQs about Jefferies EMEA Market Minutes:

How many episodes does Jefferies EMEA Market Minutes have?

The podcast currently has 366 episodes available.