Jefferies EMEA Market Minutes

By Meredydd Watts

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Daily insight into equity markets including research calls, factor & sector analysis, key macro events and trends ---- THIS IS NOT EQUITY RESEARCH: This material is a marketing com... more

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FAQs about Jefferies EMEA Market Minutes:

How many episodes does Jefferies EMEA Market Minutes have?

The podcast currently has 366 episodes available.

Jefferies EMEA Market Minutes episodes:

July 21, 2020 Tuesday 21st July - Global mono trade resumes but newsflow in Europe driving value baskets higher
Recorded 10:45am Uk time / 5:45am EST
* Europe solid, trading +1.5-2%
* Rally led by value with newsflow +ve in Autos and banks --- lack of tech / WFH basket weightings also a feature in Europe
* Eurogroup formally announced makeup / split in stim package and split slightly better for periphery so Italian banks and BTPs trading better
* Autos contributing to rally with solid earnings out from Continental
* Industrials in focus with a plethora of earnings - general tone positive. Sector remains mid range on the day and indeed the year --- I think how the sector trades through earnings season it key indicator for the broader market
THIS IS NOT EQUITY RESEARCH: This material is a marketing communication and is not and should not be construed as investment research
Please refer to Jefferies’ important disclosure via this link: www.jefferies.com/globaljefferiesllc
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9min
July 20, 2020 Monday 20th July
Low volume start to a big earning week.
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6min
July 17, 2020 Friday 17th July - Europe UNCH
• Europe is unch on the day, volumes are fairly muted as well
• The EU meeting on the Recovery Fund started today at 9am London time. We could potentially start seeing some headlines in the afternoon over the possible disagreement points. There is also a press conference scheduled in the evening, likely after market close. Market expectations from the summit are low with the central scenario being that another summit needs to be scheduled towards end July/beginning August.
• STERLING weakness continues trading below €1.10 more press spec. expectations that UK BOE will cut rates by 10bps at next meeting.
• BoE Governor Bailey is speaking at 11am London time and any comments around negative rates being off the table would be closely watched.
• Unlike in the US overnight Tech is +1% outperforming ...
• Ericsson +10% as the cos second quater Results tops ests + Maintains FY20 & FY22 targets. helping sentiment acorss the sector STM +3%, IFX +2.5%
• Auto's +1.6% vol's +50% driven by Daimler +4.5% post earnings
• ASSA ABLOY -2% from opening +4% post +ve earnings also Wartsila -1% having opened +7% also doing the same
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5min
July 16, 2020 Thursday 16th July
Sell off impacted China weakness and a busy day of European earnings
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4min
July 15, 2020 Wednesday July 17th-
Risk on and earning focused morning
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5min
July 14, 2020 Tuesday 14th July - Momo led sell off. Earnings season kicks off today
Recorded 10:30am GMT / 5:30am EST
* Europe -1.5% with growth /momo names sold - mirror of US weakness into close
* California headlines and rising US/China tension cited
* Earnings season kicks off today in the US.. CITI, JPM & Wells Fargo report later. Options implied move >6.5% which is huge
* Single stock vol feels like it will a significant feature this reporting season and index vol also looks too low
THIS IS NOT EQUITY RESEARCH: This material is a marketing communication and is not and should not be construed as investment research
Please refer to Jefferies’ important disclosure via this link: www.jefferies.com/globaljefferiesllc
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7min
July 13, 2020 Monday 13th July - Europe is trading +50bps having opened +1%
• Europe is trading +60bps a slight fade from having opened +1%
• SHCOMP +1.8% seemingly ignoring all the technical sell and exhaustion signals and not least the fact that Trump said over the weekend that a phase two trade deal with China isn’t under consideration, and that the relationship between Washington and Beijing has deteriorated too much.
• Crude in focus - dropped back befllow the $40 mark this morning, after yo-yo session Friday but talk of Opec+ starting output easing controls in August - just to highlight that the organisation is set to meet on Wednesday.
• DNB +9% is after reporting a Net interest income beat, capital also came out better and impairment better too.
• Miners are outperforming again this morning.. As Copper, Silver and Gold all continue to extend their gains. RIO +>2% is continuing to reach all time highs.
• Atlantia -14% after Italy's prime minister rejected a final offer from the company owned by the Benettons family, which is trying to retain the contract at a tollway unit following a deadly bridge collapse.
• Semiconductors are outperforming following a report that US semiconductor firm Analog Devices is near to a $17b all-stock deal to acquire smaller peer Maxim Integrated Products. AMS SM +5%
• 4.30pm BoE’s Bailey speaks
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8min
July 10, 2020 Friday 10th July - volitive start in European equities
• Volitile start in Equities this morning, Europe opened down half a percent... But then saw a 100bps turnaround becore fading back to unch on the day.. No major macro headlines caused the rally are there wasn't any real spike in activity on HT or LT to account for the rally so indicating it's likely futures led.
• Italian industrial Production data albeit for the month of May this was a significant beat; it came in at 42% MOM vs cons 24% and previous number which was -19%.
• New cluster cases in Tokyo and HK raised concerns over potential second waves and re-closure of certain sectors in the economy. Hence why in Asia HK -~2% was weak.
• In the commodity space; Crude is lower again this morning - the breakdown a function of derisking on US/China headlines, on contract bans of Chinese co.'s using govt contracts, but also due to production being resumed at an oil field and refinery in Libya
• Food and BEvs +50bps are out performing, helped by CARLSBERG +5% after H1 just prereleased is VERY positive. Massive beat vs current consensus on the operating profit line so the Danish regulator forces the pre-release. CARLB saying they expect H1 operating profit -8.9% vs our -23.9% and street -26%
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5min
July 09, 2020 Thursday 9th July - Europe +20bps very low volumes
• Europe is trading +20bps - low volumes -20% in the stocks 600, on 20DMA basis, and considering how low the volumes have been the last 20 days that is becoming and increasing low bar for comparison so really still feels like we are awaiting to
• SHCOMP +140bps, impressive rally despite CSRC pouring a little cold water on the mkt as they clamp down on margin financing and Reuters quoted Chinese media warning investors to "respect the market, manage risks and pursue rational investments"
• Europe is led by Tech +230bps,
• SAP +8% -- who pre-announced beating expectations.. and is one of the first software companies to report preliminary 2Q results this is sending ripples through the sector. crucially 2020 guidance was maintained, which we view as achievable. 2023 guidance was again maintained, which continues to imply a very strong rebound in new cloud bookings in 2021/2022.
• miners +80bps are also strong today... testing 200dma which has been a resistance level for a number of days and funneling sector into an increasingly narrow range for a month
• RR -8% after trading update, the key numbers showing that the cashflow was in line with the street, CO still exploring cash raise.
• BOO +25% we had call last night, is anyone wants thoughts then get in touch the call is actually been recorded so is still available to listen to this FT article Multiple Boohoo inspections find no modern slavery offences
• In terms of data release, the only notable release is the US initial jobless claims, though its importance has reduced following the strong payroll reports.
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4min
July 08, 2020 Wednesday 8th July - Thin tape with market holding at upper end of range... awaiting earnings
Recorded 10:15am GMT / 5:15am EST
* Europe -40bps - following on from lazy session in Asia, however China continues its stampede higher
* Volumes very poor, -15% in Europe and Asia. It feels like with markets at the upper end of the range we need confidence from earnings have conviction either way from here
* Banks in focus... Very poor in the US on NPL concerns and also dragged lower in Asia on talk the US may look to intervene in the HKD/USD peg.
* Staples acting very well, I don't think its just a reflection of defensive positioning in a poor tape, I think its better clarity on consensus numbers with pre close chats mostly out the way
THIS IS NOT EQUITY RESEARCH: This material is a marketing communication and is not and should not be construed as investment research
Please refer to Jefferies’ important disclosure via this link: www.jefferies.com/globaljefferiesllc
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6min

FAQs about Jefferies EMEA Market Minutes:

How many episodes does Jefferies EMEA Market Minutes have?

The podcast currently has 366 episodes available.