KBRA Podcasts

European fibre is moving from a buildout story to an operating and refinancing story. In this episode of KBRA Podcasts, John Sage, Senior Director and Head of Private Credit Research, is joined by Karim Nassif, Senior Director in Project Finance and Infrastructure, to discuss what the sector’s growing track record reveals about customer take-up, network utilisation, recurring cash flow, and revenue quality; why performance has diverged across European markets; and how lenders are evaluating leverage and refinancing capacity as assets mature. They also explore consolidation and the emergence of enterprise and data centre connectivity as potential sources of future growth.

In this episode John Sage, Senior Director and Head of Private Credit Research here at KBRA will be joined by two colleagues — Ken Egan from the Sovereign team and Karim Nassif from the Corporate, Infrastructure and Project Finance team. They will be diving into the topic of how euro area inflation has become less correlated with oil price swings. We’ll unpack why that link has weakened — from reduced oil intensity and greater supply diversification, to stronger policy buffers. We’ll also explore what all this means for the credit outlook of European energy companies.

In this episode of KBRA Podcasts, John Sage, KBRA’s Senior Director and Head of Private Credit Research, is joined by Ken Egan from Sovereigns and Karim Nassif from Project Finance and Infrastructure (PF&I) to discuss how European sovereigns are navigating global volatility. Ken highlights resilient labor markets, political fragmentation, and monetary divergence. Karim explores the growing role of PF&I in defense, digital, and energy sectors amid Europe’s policy-driven growth.

KBRA analyst Karim Nassif and Ken Egan review the European project finance and infrastructure (PF&I) market’s performance in 2024 and discuss the themes that will likely take centre stage in 2025. The supportive policy environment, slightly improved economic conditions with a relative softening in commodity prices should act as tailwinds to the sector. KBRA also expects PF&I to act as a growing funding tool to support the energy transition and digital sector but will be reliant on greater involvement from private credit in the year ahead to achieve the national and European Union targets.

BANK COMPENDIUM INSIGHTS: FOURTH-QUARTER 2022 BANK EARNINGS IN REVIEW

Bank Loan Quality and Loss Absorption Capacity Better Today Than in Early 2000s

In case you missed it, KBRA Financial Institutions Group analysts Leah Hallfors, Senior Director, John Rempe, Director, and Brian Ropp, Managing Director, discuss KBRA’s latest views of the U.S. banking industry, as well as the key takeaways of 4Q22 financial results. This edition also features a study conducted on various loan mix and quality indicators, as well as the loss absorption capacity from structural earnings, of banks as of 3Q22 relative to the period surrounding the early 2000s recession.

The eleventh episode of Bank Compendium Insights highlights:

1. Loan mix and quality in 3Q22 compared to the early 2000s

2. Loss absorption capacity via structural earnings and secondary buffers

3. Deposit betas and NIM trends

4. Environmental, Social, and Governance regulatory update

In this episode, Joan Feldbaum-Vidra, head of Sovereigns Ratings, discusses expectations for sovereign credit quality. The improved outlook for growth is balanced against still weak growth expectations, swollen government balance sheets, tight financial conditions, political risks, and enduring high prices for food, while the expiration of the G20’s Debt Service Suspension Initiative in the next few years will require difficult fiscal adjustments. Government balance sheets are also less flexible to manage future shocks.

THIRD-QUARTER 2022 BANK EARNINGS IN REVIEW

Stable Outlook in 2023 for U.S. Banking Industry Despite Monetary Headwinds

KBRA Financial Institutions Group analysts Leah Hallfors, Senior Director, John Rempe, Director, and Brian Ropp, Managing Director, discuss KBRA’s latest views of the U.S. banking industry and 2023 sector outlook, as well as the key takeaways of 3Q22 financial results. This edition also highlights the resilience of the KBRA-rated bank universe amid the intensified tightening cycle.

The 10th episode of Bank Compendium Insights examines:

1. Earnings performance amid rising rates and competing tailwinds and headwinds

2. Accelerating deposit betas and the strength of deposit franchises

3. The lagged effect on loan portfolio quality

4. Banks generally better positioned to withstand stressed conditions versus previous cycles

In this episode we discuss KBRA's recent rating action on the United Kingdom (UK) and the management of the UK ratings since KBRA first assigned its rating in 2018. In the podcast, KBRA’s Ken Egan, lead analyst on the UK credit rating, walks us through the credit rating history of the UK, highlights the main factors identified for the downgrade in its recent credit report, and provides an update on the current macro situation in the country.

SECOND-QUARTER 2022 BANK EARNINGS IN REVIEW

Navigating the Sharpest Fed Tightening Cycle Since Volcker

KBRA Financial Institutions Group analysts John Rempe, Director, and Leah Hallfors, Senior Director, cover the key takeaways of 2Q22 financial results, share insights on how the industry is navigating the sharp increase in interest rates so far in 2022, the outlook for bottom-line returns, and examine key topics and trends that are top-of-mind, in view of the uncertain economic environment. The ninth episode of Bank Compendium Insights highlights:

1. Earnings Performance: Bank ROA and NIM results and trends in a higher interest rate environment

2. Capital: Core capital trends and reduced capital cushions

3. Asset Quality: A position of strength despite recession risks

4. Developments in the deposit space

5. ESG Bulletin Spotlight – Univest Financial Corporation and industry developments in ESG

In this episode we discuss recent U.S. data prints, growth and policy developments in China, and global macro dynamics, as well as their impact on sovereign credit. In the podcast, KBRA’s Joan Feldbaum-Vidra, Senior Managing Director and Head of Sovereigns, paints a gloomy picture for global sovereigns, but also highlights strides toward greater energy resilience in Europe.