KBRA Podcasts

BANK COMPENDIUM INSIGHTS: FOURTH-QUARTER 2022 BANK EARNINGS IN REVIEW

Bank Loan Quality and Loss Absorption Capacity Better Today Than in Early 2000s

In case you missed it, KBRA Financial Institutions Group analysts Leah Hallfors, Senior Director, John Rempe, Director, and Brian Ropp, Managing Director, discuss KBRA’s latest views of the U.S. banking industry, as well as the key takeaways of 4Q22 financial results. This edition also features a study conducted on various loan mix and quality indicators, as well as the loss absorption capacity from structural earnings, of banks as of 3Q22 relative to the period surrounding the early 2000s recession.

The eleventh episode of Bank Compendium Insights highlights:

1. Loan mix and quality in 3Q22 compared to the early 2000s

2. Loss absorption capacity via structural earnings and secondary buffers

3. Deposit betas and NIM trends

4. Environmental, Social, and Governance regulatory update

In this episode, Joan Feldbaum-Vidra, head of Sovereigns Ratings, discusses expectations for sovereign credit quality. The improved outlook for growth is balanced against still weak growth expectations, swollen government balance sheets, tight financial conditions, political risks, and enduring high prices for food, while the expiration of the G20’s Debt Service Suspension Initiative in the next few years will require difficult fiscal adjustments. Government balance sheets are also less flexible to manage future shocks.

THIRD-QUARTER 2022 BANK EARNINGS IN REVIEW

Stable Outlook in 2023 for U.S. Banking Industry Despite Monetary Headwinds

KBRA Financial Institutions Group analysts Leah Hallfors, Senior Director, John Rempe, Director, and Brian Ropp, Managing Director, discuss KBRA’s latest views of the U.S. banking industry and 2023 sector outlook, as well as the key takeaways of 3Q22 financial results. This edition also highlights the resilience of the KBRA-rated bank universe amid the intensified tightening cycle.

The 10th episode of Bank Compendium Insights examines:

1. Earnings performance amid rising rates and competing tailwinds and headwinds

2. Accelerating deposit betas and the strength of deposit franchises

3. The lagged effect on loan portfolio quality

4. Banks generally better positioned to withstand stressed conditions versus previous cycles

In this episode we discuss KBRA's recent rating action on the United Kingdom (UK) and the management of the UK ratings since KBRA first assigned its rating in 2018. In the podcast, KBRA’s Ken Egan, lead analyst on the UK credit rating, walks us through the credit rating history of the UK, highlights the main factors identified for the downgrade in its recent credit report, and provides an update on the current macro situation in the country.

SECOND-QUARTER 2022 BANK EARNINGS IN REVIEW

Navigating the Sharpest Fed Tightening Cycle Since Volcker

KBRA Financial Institutions Group analysts John Rempe, Director, and Leah Hallfors, Senior Director, cover the key takeaways of 2Q22 financial results, share insights on how the industry is navigating the sharp increase in interest rates so far in 2022, the outlook for bottom-line returns, and examine key topics and trends that are top-of-mind, in view of the uncertain economic environment. The ninth episode of Bank Compendium Insights highlights:

1. Earnings Performance: Bank ROA and NIM results and trends in a higher interest rate environment

2. Capital: Core capital trends and reduced capital cushions

3. Asset Quality: A position of strength despite recession risks

4. Developments in the deposit space

5. ESG Bulletin Spotlight – Univest Financial Corporation and industry developments in ESG

In this episode we discuss recent U.S. data prints, growth and policy developments in China, and global macro dynamics, as well as their impact on sovereign credit. In the podcast, KBRA’s Joan Feldbaum-Vidra, Senior Managing Director and Head of Sovereigns, paints a gloomy picture for global sovereigns, but also highlights strides toward greater energy resilience in Europe.

In this episode, Andrew Giudici, Senior Managing Director, Kathryn Bai, Associate Director, and Justin Huynh, Associate Director discuss JFK NTO, LLC’s $6.63 billion financing for phase A of the Terminal One redevelopment project at New York’s John F. Kennedy International Airport. The discussion explores some of the key credit considerations of this landmark public-private partnership transaction including traffic forecasts and construction.

KBRA releases a new podcast episode discussing the following topics:

Tighter financial conditions in emerging markets are not containing inflation.

China exposure and food security and prices remain key credit risks for emerging market economies, offset somewhat by commodity price gains for producing economies

Managing these challenges by delivering faster-paced structural reform or seizing near-shoring opportunities can mitigate emerging market credit risk.

FIRST-QUARTER 2022 BANK EARNINGS IN REVIEW

KBRA Financial Institutions Group analysts John Rempe, Director, and Leah Hallfors, Senior Director, cover the key takeaways of 1Q22 financial results, dissect interest rate sensitivity of KBRA’s coverage and also review the potential impact of inflationary pressures on auto lending. The eighth episode of Bank Compendium Insights highlights:

1. Earnings Performance: Bank ROA and NIM results and trends in a higher interest rate environment

2. Capital: Core capital trends and impact of AOCI on TCE ratios

3. Consumer: Drill down on auto lending

4. ESG Bulletin Spotlight – PacWest Bancorp and Industry developments in ESG

KBRA releases a new podcast episode discussing the Ukrainian refugee crisis and the financial support being organized as a means of assistance. The discussion explores topics such as potential costs, allocation of funds between countries hosting refugees and displaced persons within Ukraine, facilities already announced, as well as the macro and political backdrop in Europe in face of this new stress.

“The theme of refugee absorption will likely take center stage for European politics in the coming weeks and months as the pressure mounts,” according to Ken Egan, Director in KBRA’s Sovereigns Group.