This article is by Heo Jin, Kim Jeong-jae and read by an artificial voice.
Democratic Party (DP) chief Lee Jae-myung would face a tight race against potential People Power Party (PPP) candidates Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon or Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo in an early presidential election, according to a recent poll released by Gallup Korea.
In the survey of 1,031 adults on possible scenarios involving Lee against seven potential conservative candidates, Lee outdistanced all seven but only narrowly so with Oh and Hong.
In a match against Oh, Lee's approval rating stood at 46 percent, barely surpassing the Seoul mayor's 43 percent. Against Hong, Lee's approval stood at 45 percent against the Daegu mayor's 42 percent.
By regions, Oh and Hong outpaced Lee in Seoul, Gangwon, Daejeon, Daegu, Busan and Ulsan, while Lee was superior in Incheon, Gyeonggi, Gwangju, the Jeolla provinces and Jeju.
This seemingly aligns with Korea's historically divided electoral landscape, with western regions largely leaning toward liberals and eastern regions favoring conservatives.
Breaking down the results by age, respondents in their 40s and 50s preferred Lee as the next president, while those in their 60s and 70s favored Oh and Hong.
However, for voters in their 30s and younger, a swing demographic, the numbers were more complicated.
Among voters in their 30s, Oh and Hong both defeated Lee. Among respondents between 18 and 29, Lee bested Oh 43 percent to 38 percent, while with Hong, Lee lost with 35 percent against the Daegu mayor's 47 percent.
A majority of 51 percent of respondents expressed a desire to "change the current government," while 42 percent supported "maintaining the current government."
While the public strongly agrees with President Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment, with 60 percent in favor and 35 percent opposed, and leans toward changing the current government, the approving rate of Lee - the one and only strong DP candidate - remains lower than 50 percent.
"Public hostility toward the DP's Lee certainly exists, and there's a lack of connection between public support for impeachment leading to any kind of judgment on the administration," said Park Dong-won, CEO of election consulting agency Policom.
The polls also suggested that most voters are bonded to parties and aware that the current political situation will eventually lead to an early presidential election.
Around 41 percent of respondents supported the PPP, while 40 percent voted for DP. Only 12 percent were floating voters.
"The approving ratings for both the DP and PPP are unprecedentedly high," said Heo Jin-jae, a research director at Gallup Korea. "People who support no party account for little more than 10 percent when it used to reach 25 percent, meaning that voters are tied tightly to parties."
"The bond is even tighter compared to March 2022, when the 20th presidential election was held," Heo added.
Labor Minister Kim Moon-soo, one of the rising candidates, has been losing supporters, the polls suggested.
DP's Lee bested Kim Moon-soo, 47 percent to 38 percent, and PPP Rep. Ahn Cheol-soo, 44 percent to 37 percent. Against former PPP leader Han Dong-hoon, Lee won 46 percent to Han's 34.
Lee also trounced Reform Party leader Lee Jun-seok, 47 percent to 26 percent. The Reform Party chief and former PPP chair gained only 46 percent of PPP supporters.
When respondents were asked about all candidates rather than specific two-way races, Lee still took first place with 36 percent, followed by Labor Minister Kim with 16 percent and Hong with 10 percent.
Experts, however, say the situation could reverse itself.
"It's too early to analyze the presidential election accurately," said Yoo Sung-jin, a politics professor at Ewha Womans University. "Voters will start considering in earnest after the impeachment, when the election becomes a reality."
Gallup Korea's Heo said the DP chief's ongoing corruption trials are significant variables.
