Korea JoongAng Daily - Daily News from Korea

Korea JoongAng Daily - Daily News from Korea

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  • Korea is aging alone. A Yakult delivery woman can be a lifeline for isolated older adults.
    This article is by Seo Ji-eun, Fergus Goodall Smith and read by an artificial voice.

    On a summer morning in Seoul two years ago, Yoon Gap-yeon, an 81-year-old woman who lives by herself, collapsed just at the threshold her front door.
    After that, she remembers little.
    She lay alone on the floor of her basement home for roughly half an hour — long enough, in the heat, that the outcome could easily have been different.
    Fortunately, her Yakult delivery woman arrived — one of Korea's roughly 11,000 "fresh managers," women who deliver chilled probiotic drinks door to door on electric carts.
    "She said, 'What's wrong?' I could hear her, but I couldn't respond," Yoon told the Korea JoongAng Daily last week.
    The manager ran to find a pharmacy, returned with medicine, came back that evening with porridge, and later helped connect Yoon to her local community center for welfare support.
    "If she hadn't come when she did, I don't know what would have happened to me," Yoon said.

    Korea has one of the world's fastest-aging populations. Nearly two million Koreans aged 65 and older live alone, equal to one in five seniors.
    Last year, a record 3,924 died in isolation, alone, their deaths undiscovered for days or longer. A survey by the Seoul Institute found that 62.1 percent of people living alone report feeling lonely; 13.6 percent have no one to rely on at all.
    Yoon lives alone in Gwangjin District, eastern Seoul. Intestinal surgery years earlier had left her weighing 41 kilograms (90 lbs) and unable to eat most ordinary foods. Her son lives in Ulsan, a five-hour drive away, and visits when he can.
    The manager who found her that morning was Son Young-soon . The Korea JoongAng Daily joined Son on her morning rounds on May 26.

    Making the rounds
    Before becoming a Yakult delivery woman 26 years ago, Son worked as a nursing assistant — a background, she said, that made her attentive to the kinds of changes that can go unnoticed in someone living alone.
    Her route winds past Hyemin Hospital and through streets lined with low-rise residential buildings and public housing in Gwangjin District, an area with one of the higher concentrations of elderly and vulnerable residents in eastern Seoul. She manages around 70 customers, about 10 of them are older adults living alone. Yoon is one of them.
    The deliveries take only a minute at each door.

    "They have no one to talk to," Son said. "So when you see them, it all comes out — how they're feeling, where it hurts. Some of them give you fruit or snacks and say thank you."
    Son keeps notes on who has been quieter than usual, who mentioned a hospital appointment, who did not answer on a day they were expected to be home.
    "I just like people," she said. "Especially the elderly — they seem to like me. I have a friendly face."

    On the morning of May 26, as she worked her way down the block, a neighbor stopped mid-stride to place an order. A few minutes later, Yoon, returning from a hospital visit, spotted Son across the street, crossed over and took her hand.
    A man surnamed Kim, 82, is another of Son's customers, who has been receiving deliveries three times a week for three years through a government designation. Asked about his daily routine, he was brief.
    "Eating, sleeping," he said. "Taking medicine every day."
    Asked whether he has friends or neighbors his age nearby, he paused for only a moment.
    "They're all dead," he said. "I'm living on medicine."
    A care worker comes to clean his home and do his laundry. Son's visits offer something different, he said — "emotionally. In the heart." He called the people who come to see him "angels," and said he looks forward to the visits.
    When the door stays shut
    Fresh managers like Son often end up doing more than delivering drinks, particularly as the country ages and the networks around older people grow sparser.
    Under a government-linked program launched in 1994, HY, the Korean food company that makes Yakult, coordinates with local welfare authorities and social agen...
    9 min
  • How Hyundai, LG stole the spotlight from Samsung for Huang's Korea visit
    This article is by Sarah Chea and read by an artificial voice.

    [NEWS ANALYSIS]
    While Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's visit to Korea last October sent chipmakers soaring, news of his latest trip to Korea this week has sparked a rally in robotics-related stocks — shares of LG Electronics hit the daily trading limit for two consecutive sessions right after his visit was reported, while Doosan Robotics surged around 50 percent.
    During the same period, Samsung Electronics gained 17 percent, while SK hynix rose just 4 percent.
    Marking his second visit in just eight months, the rapid succession of trips reflects Huang's determination to position the country as a critical pillar of Nvidia's robotics ecosystem, rather than merely as a supplier of components.
    The U.S. tech giant urgently needs real-world hardware environments in which to test and validate the technologies underpinning its physical AI ambitions — and Korea is a very suitable test bed, industry observers say.
    Huang is reportedly scheduled to hold a series of meetings with Korea's top business leaders, including SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won, LG Group Chairman Koo Kwang-mo, Hyundai Motor Group Executive Chair Euisun Chung and Naver founder Lee Hae-jin.
    While Huang's previous visits to Korea largely focused on strengthening the chip supply chain, this trip is expected to center on robotics, reflecting the firm's evolution beyond semiconductors into physical AI, which spans robotics, autonomous driving and industrial digital twins.

    Korea as Nvidia's AI test bed
    Nvidia needs more than software to realize its physical AI ambitions, which means it requires real-world hardware on which to test and validate its AI, whether on robots, vehicles or home appliances. Korea's highly advanced manufacturing ecosystem and large-scale production capacity make it a natural fit as Nvidia's preferred real-world testing ground.
    Nvidia unveiled Cosmos 3, an open foundation model designed for physical AI, at the GTC Taipei 2026 trade show on June 1 and highlighted Samsung Electronics, LG Electronics and Doosan Robotics as firms developing robotics applications with the platform.
    Cosmos 3 enables robots and autonomous vehicles to understand and interact with the physical world by processing text, images, video, audio and motion data. Nvidia says the model can shorten physical AI development cycles from months to days.
    LG Electronics' home robot CLOiD, powered by Nvidia's Jetson Thor chip and Isaac robotics platform, was featured in the presentation. The Korean appliance maker is stepping up its robotics investments, with plans to ramp up production of key robotics components, including actuators, beginning next year.

    "The fact that Huang is returning just seven months after his last visit, without a major external event, shows how important Korea has become to Nvidia," said Jeff Kim, an analyst at KB Securities. "Nvidia needs manufacturing partners capable of testing and validating robotics, automotive and consumer AI applications at scale, and Korea offers exactly that."
    Nvidia is already cooperating with Doosan Robotics on intelligent robotic systems slated for commercialization in 2027. A commercial humanoid model is expected to follow in 2028.
    The partnership gained momentum in April when Madison Huang, Nvidia's senior director of product marketing and Jensen Huang's daughter, visited Doosan Robotics' Innovation Center in Seongnam, Gyeonggi, in April.
    Huang has also highlighted his collaboration with Naver, which is developing robotics technologies integrated with cloud computing and digital twin platforms.
    Perhaps the most strategically significant partnership is with Hyundai Motor Group, the company that not only owns robot maker Boston Dynamics but also can offer Nvidia access to real-world vehicle data and large-scale deployment opportunities for autonomous driving technologies.
    "Nvidia has spent decades developing autonomous driving technologies, but now has realized that software alone...
    7 min
  • Token anxiety and the hidden cost of control in the AI era

    The author is a professor of Department of Smart Automotive Engineering and Future Mobility Master's Program at Seojeong University.
    The atmosphere at Silicon Valley house parties is changing. Developers no longer keep checking social media feeds or stock prices. Instead, many find themselves constantly monitoring the status of AI agents running in the background. Venture capitalist Nikunj Kothari has called this phenomenon "token anxiety." A token is the basic unit of computation used by artificial intelligence. As AI systems work around the clock, humans increasingly worry about what those systems are doing.

    Tokens also carry a financial cost. The more tokens an AI system consumes, the higher the bill. Yet the deeper issue is not computing expenses themselves but the cost of maintaining human control over increasingly autonomous systems.
    The trend is closely tied to the rise of "vibe coding." Rather than writing code line by line, developers describe a desired outcome in natural language and let large language models handle the implementation. Users see only the finished result, much like a completed dish placed on a dining table. Hidden from view are countless model calls, debugging cycles and iterations taking place behind the scenes. The less transparent the process becomes, the more invisible costs accumulate.
    During the prototype stage, this approach can appear revolutionary. Once a product enters real-world operation, however, the tradeoffs become clear. If developers do not fully understand AI-generated code, even minor bugs can be difficult to fix. Users become less like programmers and more like managers. They spend additional time providing context, validating outputs and monitoring errors. When the technical debt and maintenance burden left by AI-generated code are taken into account, the long-term cost of control can easily exceed visible server expenses.
    The same principle applies to physical AI systems operating in the real world. Because humans cannot continuously monitor and intervene in physical space in real time, systems such as autonomous vehicles must make reliable decisions within milliseconds. Competitive advantage does not come from processing ever-larger amounts of data. It comes from achieving a level of reliability that people can trust while using the minimum amount of computation necessary.
    For that reason, the next stage of AI competition will not be defined solely by model performance. Systems that achieve greater reliability with fewer tokens are likely to outperform larger systems that consume ever-increasing computational resources. The key measure is not volume of computation but the density of meaningful information.
    Ultimately, token anxiety reflects fear of losing control rather than concern about computing costs. Automation that lacks clear rules about when AI should stop and when human verification should begin creates a new form of waste. An uncontrolled loop is inefficiency disguised as efficiency.
    This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom.
    4 min
  • Can free AI for everyone be sustained?

    Kim Won-bae
    The author is an editorial writer at the JoongAng Ilbo.
    A notable exchange during a Cabinet meeting last month highlighted a growing debate over the government's proposed "AI for Everyone" initiative. The project is part of President Lee Jae Myung's campaign pledge to build an "AI basic society," aimed at guaranteeing a minimum level of access to AI for all citizens.

    When Lee asked about the program's progress, Deputy Prime Minister and Science and ICT Minister Bae Kyung-hoon replied that preparations were underway, with a target launch in November or December. Bae explained that the service would be provided free of charge through 2028, after which private companies would lead its operation.
    Lee offered a different perspective. If users are required to pay after becoming accustomed to free access, many may stop using the program, he said. While acknowledging that not everyone needs the same level of service, Lee suggested guaranteeing a minimum level of AI access for all citizens while charging for upgraded features. He also reminded Bae, a former business executive, that efficiency and fairness must be balanced.
    The exchange revealed two distinct approaches. Bae's comments reflected an industrial policy view in which the government creates initial demand before allowing the private sector to lead. Lee emphasized access to AI as a basic social right. As the technology becomes increasingly important in daily life, concerns about access are understandable.
    But the government's plans may be moving too quickly.
    At a press briefing last month, Bae announced a goal of providing every citizen with an AI agent. Unlike chatbots, which simply answer questions, AI agents are designed to perform tasks on behalf of users. The government also plans to offer specialized services for older adults and socially vulnerable groups.
    The challenge is that expanding free access does not automatically create a sustainable service model.
    During the internet era, user data became the foundation of targeted advertising, and this allowed technology companies to generate substantial revenue. Generative AI operates differently. User interactions may help improve services, but they do not automatically create enough revenue to offset the significant costs of computation. AI agents are even more expensive because they must understand requests, gather information and repeatedly carry out multiple tasks.
    Questions of quality and accountability also deserve careful consideration.
    For AI for Everyone to become a nationwide program, it must first provide quality responses that users who are familiar with commercial AI services find acceptable. But the program's performance and operational stability have not been publicly verified. Promising advanced agent functions before these basics are proven may be premature.
    The risks increase if AI agents become linked to public services. Incorrect information or inaccurate guidance could cause administrative problems. The more strongly the government promotes the program as a free national service, the more likely citizens are to regard it as a public service. If errors occur, responsibility will inevitably fall on the government.
    Another unresolved issue is who determines the scope of free services. Private AI providers normally decide where to draw the line between free and paid features. Under the government's model, however, public funds would support free access for all citizens.

    If participating companies limit usage because of rising costs, public dissatisfaction is likely to be directed at the government. On the other hand, if the government demands broader functionality to satisfy users, it risks interfering with private-sector pricing and service design.
    A better approach would be to foster competition among multiple AI providers while limiting government intervention afterward. Extending de facto free-service requirements beyond 2028 could distort the market and weaken innovation. The program ...
    6 min
  • Time to design a Korean system of governance

    Cho Yoon-je
    The author is a special appointment professor at the Graduate School of Economics at Yonsei University.
    There is a saying that for every complex question, there is almost always a simple, neat and plausible answer that is wrong. The idea of Korea's "imperial presidency" often strikes me as one such answer.
    Whenever constitutional reform is discussed, the same diagnosis appears: The concentration of presidential power is blamed for the failures of Korean politics, and power-sharing is presented as the solution. The history of Korea's presidents is indeed extraordinary. In one of the most successful postwar development stories in the world, it is difficult to find a president of the country who has not faced exile, assassination, imprisonment, impeachment, suicide or criminal investigation.

    But is this simply the result of excessive presidential power? If Korean presidents truly possessed such authority, why were they unable to use it effectively and legitimately? Why did so many leave office under public criticism or legal punishment?
    Novelist John Updike, a two-time Pulitzer Prize winner, once wrote in "The New Yorker" that the American presidency is merely a stop on the way to the blessed condition of becoming a former president. Even during U.S. President Donald Trump's first term, former President Barack Obama and his wife earned substantial income through speeches, books and consulting work while continuing to enjoy broad public respect. Former President Bill Clinton followed a similar path. Earlier American presidents also moved on to productive postpresidential lives. George Washington established a whiskey distillery, William Howard Taft became chief justice of the United States and Herbert Hoover pursued his passion for fishing.
    During my years working in Britain and the United States, I observed that prime ministers and presidents there exercised authority comparable to, and sometimes greater than, that of Korean presidents.
    The Republic of Korea was founded by rapidly adopting institutions that had evolved over centuries in Western democracies. This created a significant gap between formal institutions and social realities. Korea's first Constitution, modeled largely on that of the Weimar Republic, was drafted and adopted within little more than a month.
    For thousands of years, the Korean Peninsula had never experienced a system based on the separation of powers. Nor had it undergone the intellectual movements that shaped modern democratic institutions in the West. As a result, a disconnect emerged between legal institutions and social behavior.
    Korea's rapid economic rise was not achieved solely through strict adherence to formal rules. Much of its success came from bridging the gap between institutions and reality through informal practices. Viewed favorably, this was flexibility. Viewed critically, it often involved corruption or legal shortcuts.
    This pattern extended beyond government. The history of Korea's economic development is also a history of arrests and presidential pardons involving business leaders. Family-controlled conglomerates dominate the economy, yet Korean commercial law contains no formal definition of a chaebol. As conglomerates expanded, practices such as accounting manipulation, preferential transactions among affiliates, cross-support and lobbying became common. In such a structure, controlling shareholders could easily become entangled in allegations of breach of trust, tax evasion or embezzlement.
    The same reality affected ordinary citizens. Powerful investigative agencies emerged in a society where few individuals or companies could claim perfect compliance with every rule. Korean politics, society and the economy operated under that shadow for decades, and traces of it remain today.
    This is not an argument in defense of corruption or legal violations. Rather, it is a call to examine honestly the relationship between Korea's institutions and the behavior of its people. Th...
    6 min
  • Election watchdog forgets its purpose, fails spectacularly in its duty

    The fallout from the ballot shortage that struck 17 polling stations across Seoul, Gyeonggi and Incheon during the June 3 local elections continues to spread. Although the election has ended, a ballot box containing roughly 2,000 votes cast in Jamsil 7-dong, Songpa District, Seoul, remained unopened as of Thursday, while protests by citizens outraged over the botched administration of the vote persisted. Because the National Election Commission (NEC) failed to prepare an adequate number of ballots, voters' fundamental political rights were ultimately infringed upon, and confidence in the fairness of the election was severely undermined.
    President Lee Jae Myung on Thursday rebuked the commission, saying that "gaps in election management that are difficult to understand or justify" had occurred. The Democratic Party raised questions about the future of Secretary-General Heo Cheol-hoon, while the People Power Party called for the immediate resignation of all officials responsible for the fiasco, including NEC Chairman Rho Tae-ak. Yet given the gravity of the matter, it is doubtful that the resignation of a handful of officials alone can calm public anger. Such a bewildering administrative blunder — the kind more commonly associated with poorly governed states — can only be explained by a comprehensive breakdown of discipline and accountability. A thorough investigation into the decision-making process that led to the ballot shortage is the bare minimum. Those responsible must be held fully accountable, both legally and administratively.
    The NEC, in fact, has enjoyed an extraordinary degree of autonomy as a constitutionally independent institution since its establishment in the wake of the fraudulent March 15 presidential election of 1960. The public expected the commission to safeguard the independence and neutrality of election administration. Instead, it has repeatedly generated controversy, from the notorious "basket voting" scandal to a series of other election-related disputes. Shielded by its independent status, the commission has long resisted oversight, refusing audits by the Board of Audit and Inspection of Korea and avoiding administrative inspections of its operations. The preferential hiring of children of commission officials was one such internal scandal that flourished in a blind spot beyond effective public scrutiny.
    An institution whose very lifeblood is fairness has repeatedly found itself embroiled in allegations of voting irregularities and misconduct. Calls for fundamental reform have surfaced time and again, only to fade without meaningful results. Under current law, the chairman of the NEC and the heads of regional election commissions serve in non-executive, largely honorary capacities, leaving internal controls weak. Perhaps because the commission wields the power to file criminal complaints, politicians from both the ruling and opposition camps have often been reluctant to challenge it.
    Any institution that operates without meaningful checks and balances is bound to grow complacent and vulnerable to corruption. This latest debacle must not be brushed aside. The NEC's organizational structure and election management system require a comprehensive overhaul. That is also the surest way to dispel persistent conspiracy theories about election fraud and restore public trust in the democratic process.
    This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom.
    4 min
  • Election watchdog forgets its purpose, fails spectacularly in its duty Related Article NEC apologizes for ballot shortages at Seoul polling stations, says incident undermined public trust in elections Fire breaks out near NEC building in Gyeonggi after vo
    Audio report: written by reporters, read by AI

    The fallout from the ballot shortage that struck 17 polling stations across Seoul, Gyeonggi and Incheon during the June 3 local elections continues to spread. Although the election has ended, a ballot box containing roughly 2,000 votes cast in Jamsil 7-dong, Songpa District, Seoul, remained unopened as of Thursday, while protests by citizens outraged over the botched administration of the vote persisted. Because the National Election Commission (NEC) failed to prepare an adequate number of ballots, voters' fundamental political rights were ultimately infringed upon, and confidence in the fairness of the election was severely undermined.
    President Lee Jae Myung on Thursday rebuked the commission, saying that "gaps in election management that are difficult to understand or justify" had occurred. The Democratic Party raised questions about the future of Secretary-General Heo Cheol-hoon, while the People Power Party called for the immediate resignation of all officials responsible for the fiasco, including NEC Chairman Rho Tae-ak. Yet given the gravity of the matter, it is doubtful that the resignation of a handful of officials alone can calm public anger. Such a bewildering administrative blunder — the kind more commonly associated with poorly governed states — can only be explained by a comprehensive breakdown of discipline and accountability. A thorough investigation into the decision-making process that led to the ballot shortage is the bare minimum. Those responsible must be held fully accountable, both legally and administratively.
    The NEC, in fact, has enjoyed an extraordinary degree of autonomy as a constitutionally independent institution since its establishment in the wake of the fraudulent March 15 presidential election of 1960. The public expected the commission to safeguard the independence and neutrality of election administration. Instead, it has repeatedly generated controversy, from the notorious "basket voting" scandal to a series of other election-related disputes. Shielded by its independent status, the commission has long resisted oversight, refusing audits by the Board of Audit and Inspection of Korea and avoiding administrative inspections of its operations. The preferential hiring of children of commission officials was one such internal scandal that flourished in a blind spot beyond effective public scrutiny.
    An institution whose very lifeblood is fairness has repeatedly found itself embroiled in allegations of voting irregularities and misconduct. Calls for fundamental reform have surfaced time and again, only to fade without meaningful results. Under current law, the chairman of the NEC and the heads of regional election commissions serve in non-executive, largely honorary capacities, leaving internal controls weak. Perhaps because the commission wields the power to file criminal complaints, politicians from both the ruling and opposition camps have often been reluctant to challenge it.
    Any institution that operates without meaningful checks and balances is bound to grow complacent and vulnerable to corruption. This latest debacle must not be brushed aside. The NEC's organizational structure and election management system require a comprehensive overhaul. That is also the surest way to dispel persistent conspiracy theories about election fraud and restore public trust in the democratic process.
    This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom.
    5 min
  • 'A graveyard for pollsters': Exit polls, surveys miss the mark again
    This article is by Yeo Sung-kuk and read by an artificial voice.

    Major discrepancies between election forecasts and the final results of the June 3 local elections and National Assembly by-elections have sparked growing doubts about the accuracy of exit polls and pre-election surveys.
    Changing voting patterns, declining survey participation and methodological shortcomings all contributed to the misses. The result has been a growing debate over whether Korea's polling industry needs to rethink how it measures public opinion.
    In the Seoul mayoral race, incumbent Oh Se-hoon of the People Power Party (PPP) won with 49.15 percent of the votes compared to his contender Chong Won-o of the Democratic Party (DP), who won 48.13 percent of the votes as of 5 p.m. on Thursday.
    However, the exit poll had inaccurately projected that Chong would win with 51.4 percent and Oh at 46 percent.
    A similar discrepancy emerged in the South Gyeongsang governor's race. The exit poll showed Kim Kyoung-soo of the DP leading with 54.3 percent, ahead of the incumbent Park Wan-soo of the PPP at 45.7 percent. Park ultimately won the race with 51.28 percent of the votes compared to Park's 48.71 percent.
    The discrepancies were striking in races that had been expected to be closely contested.

    The Daegu mayoral race had been projected as a razor-thin contest. Instead, Choo Kyung-ho of the PPP defeated Kim Boo-kyum of the DP. Choo received 53.92 percent of the vote to Kim's 45.05 percent.
    The North Jeolla governor's race, another contest expected to be a nail-biter, also ended with a wide margin. Lee Won-taeg of the DP secured 51.22 percent of the vote, comfortably ahead of independent candidate Kim Kwan-young, who received 41.78 percent.
    Forecasts for National Assembly by-elections showed similar discrepancies.
    In Gyeonggi's Pyeongtaek-B constituency, PPP candidate Yu Eui-dong won with 34.83 percent of the votes, far ahead of DP's Kim Yong-nam at 28.77 percent and Cho Kuk of the Rebuilding Korea Party at 27.24 percent.

    Pre-election polls also differed significantly from the final results.
    A telephone survey conducted by KBS and Hankook Research between May 24 and 27 showed Cho would win at 24 percent and DP's Kim Yong-nam would earn 22 percent, with Yu at at 20 percent. Despite the survey results, Yu ultimately won.
    A separate ARS survey conducted by CBS and the Korea Society Opinion Institute between May 22 and 23 in Gyeonggi's Hanam-A constituency showed DP candidate Lee Kwang-jae at 48.8 percent and PPP candidate Lee Yong at 39.1 percent. The final result was far closer. Lee Kwang-jae won by a margin of just 1.56 percentage points and earned 49.68 percent of the votes and Lee Yong earned 48.12 percent.
    The telephone poll results from the JoongAng Ilbo–Kstat survey from May 26 to 27 projected that Chong would win with 44 percent of the votes compared to Oh's 36 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. However, Oh ultimately won the race. Details are available on the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.

    Why did exit polls and poll surveys fail to capture voter sentiment accurately?
    "Godeok-dong, Godeok-myeon and Paengseong-eup [in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi] are grouped into a single polling area, but too few people answer phone surveys, which makes it difficult to accurately reflect local voter sentiment," said Yu, the winner of the National Assembly by-election in Pyeongtaek-B constituency, on SBS Radio on Thursday. "Many rural conservatives are tied up [with farm work] through the end of May [and can't pick up the phone for telephone surveys]."
    "After conducting polls in Pyeongtaek-B and Busan Buk-A constituencies, I came to a troubling realization," said Kim Ou-joon, the pro-government YouTuber who operates polling firm Flower, during a broadcast on Thursday. "We conducted these polls ourselves, but even we can't trust them. It showed me that there are serious flaws in the polling and exit-poll meth...
    8 min
  • 'A graveyard for pollsters': Exit polls, surveys miss the mark again
    Audio report: written by reporters, read by AI

    Major discrepancies between election forecasts and the final results of the June 3 local elections and National Assembly by-elections have sparked growing doubts about the accuracy of exit polls and pre-election surveys.
    Changing voting patterns, declining survey participation and methodological shortcomings all contributed to the misses. The result has been a growing debate over whether Korea's polling industry needs to rethink how it measures public opinion.
    In the Seoul mayoral race, incumbent Oh Se-hoon of the People Power Party (PPP) won with 49.15 percent of the votes compared to his contender Chong Won-o of the Democratic Party (DP), who won 48.13 percent of the votes as of 5 p.m. on Thursday.
    However, the exit poll had inaccurately projected that Chong would win with 51.4 percent and Oh at 46 percent.
    A similar discrepancy emerged in the South Gyeongsang governor's race. The exit poll showed Kim Kyoung-soo of the DP leading with 54.3 percent, ahead of the incumbent Park Wan-soo of the PPP at 45.7 percent. Park ultimately won the race with 51.28 percent of the votes compared to Park's 48.71 percent.
    The discrepancies were striking in races that had been expected to be closely contested.

    The Daegu mayoral race had been projected as a razor-thin contest. Instead, Choo Kyung-ho of the PPP defeated Kim Boo-kyum of the DP. Choo received 53.92 percent of the vote to Kim's 45.05 percent.
    The North Jeolla governor's race, another contest expected to be a nail-biter, also ended with a wide margin. Lee Won-taeg of the DP secured 51.22 percent of the vote, comfortably ahead of independent candidate Kim Kwan-young, who received 41.78 percent.
    Forecasts for National Assembly by-elections showed similar discrepancies.
    In Gyeonggi's Pyeongtaek-B constituency, PPP candidate Yu Eui-dong won with 34.83 percent of the votes, far ahead of DP's Kim Yong-nam at 28.77 percent and Cho Kuk of the Rebuilding Korea Party at 27.24 percent.

    Pre-election polls also differed significantly from the final results.
    A telephone survey conducted by KBS and Hankook Research between May 24 and 27 showed Cho would win at 24 percent and DP's Kim Yong-nam would earn 22 percent, with Yu at at 20 percent. Despite the survey results, Yu ultimately won.
    A separate ARS survey conducted by CBS and the Korea Society Opinion Institute between May 22 and 23 in Gyeonggi's Hanam-A constituency showed DP candidate Lee Kwang-jae at 48.8 percent and PPP candidate Lee Yong at 39.1 percent. The final result was far closer. Lee Kwang-jae won by a margin of just 1.56 percentage points and earned 49.68 percent of the votes and Lee Yong earned 48.12 percent.
    The telephone poll results from the JoongAng Ilbo–Kstat survey from May 26 to 27 projected that Chong would win with 44 percent of the votes compared to Oh's 36 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. However, Oh ultimately won the race. Details are available on the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.

    Why did exit polls and poll surveys fail to capture voter sentiment accurately?
    "Godeok-dong, Godeok-myeon and Paengseong-eup [in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi] are grouped into a single polling area, but too few people answer phone surveys, which makes it difficult to accurately reflect local voter sentiment," said Yu, the winner of the National Assembly by-election in Pyeongtaek-B constituency, on SBS Radio on Thursday. "Many rural conservatives are tied up [with farm work] through the end of May [and can't pick up the phone for telephone surveys]."
    "After conducting polls in Pyeongtaek-B and Busan Buk-A constituencies, I came to a troubling realization," said Kim Ou-joon, the pro-government YouTuber who operates polling firm Flower, during a broadcast on Thursday. "We conducted these polls ourselves, but even we can't trust them. It showed me that there are serious flaws in the polling and exit-poll methods that have been...
    8 min
  • With launch of SpaceX IPO, AI-related stock rally may lose momentum
    This article is by Park Yu-mi and read by an artificial voice.

    Elon Musk's space company, SpaceX, is set to make its Nasdaq debut on June 12. It's expected to become the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history and potentially reshape global equity markets — and the Korean bourse is no exception.
    SpaceX is expected to be valued between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion, with the offering size projected at $75 billion to $80 billion, according to foreign media reports and industry estimates as of June 1. The estimates are more than double the previous record set by Saudi Arabia's national oil company, Saudi Aramco, which raised $29.4 billion during its IPO.
    SpaceX is scheduled to begin an investor road show on June 4, during which it is expected to finalize details such as the size of the offering, the IPO price and valuation.
    Investors are closely watching how much capital the listing could draw away from soaring AI-related stocks.
    "Investment capital seeking future growth opportunities is currently concentrated in AI-related shares," said Kim Il-hyuk, an analyst at KB Securities. "If SpaceX goes public, some investors may reduce their exposure to existing growth stocks and shift funds into the new listing. Stocks whose valuations have risen sharply on expectations of future growth are likely to be affected first."
    Some industry experts see the recent foreign selling of major semiconductor stocks, such as Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, as a partial reflection of portfolio adjustments ahead of SpaceX's listing.

    The impact could be amplified in Korea, where retail investors account for a relatively large share of market participation.
    "Unlike a typical IPO, SpaceX is expected to allocate 20 to 30 percent of its initial free float to retail investors," said Park Hye-ran, an analyst at Samsung Securities. "Short-term selling pressure is likely to fall on stocks that have already seen substantial gains, as well as Tesla and its aerospace-sector peers."
    Another key issue is the timing of when SpaceX will debut on the Nasdaq-100.
    Under the Nasdaq's new "fast entry" rule, which took effect on May 1, large IPOs can qualify for index inclusion as little as 15 trading days after listing. That means SpaceX could join the Nasdaq-100 roughly two weeks after its market debut, rather than waiting a year or more.
    Despite SpaceX's enormous valuation, analysts expect the initial market impact to be limited because only 3 to 5 percent of its shares will be available for trading after the IPO.
    As a result, index-tracking funds would initially need to buy only about $4 billion worth of stock, according to Samsung Securities.
    The more significant market impact is expected later when lockup restrictions on existing shareholders, such as founder and owner Elon Musk, begin to expire in stages.

    "If the free-float ratio [the percentage of shares available for public trading] exceeds 33 percent between mid-September and October, roughly 120 to 140 days after the IPO, passive inflows from index-tracking funds could increase to as much as $31 billion," said Park Hye-ran, an analyst at Samsung Securities. "At that point, SpaceX could surpass Tesla and become one of the seven largest companies in the Nasdaq-100 by market capitalization."
    SpaceX's listing could mark the beginning of an IPO supercycle in the second half of the year, with other major private technology firms such as OpenAI and Anthropic potentially following.
    The three companies' combined fundraising target is estimated at around $200 billion, with a combined valuation of roughly $4 trillion.
    "The burden on global liquidity from such large-scale offerings could be significant, particularly given interest rate uncertainty and other macroeconomic challenges," said one finance industry source. "Many retail investors are being driven by the fear of missing out, but the biggest risks remain uncertainty surrounding future capital flows and corporate valuations."
    This article was original...
    5 min

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