We may be entering the later innings of an expansion but we are still an economic expansion. Will the fed slamming on the brakes slow down our expansion? Will the debt cycles be shorter now?

Typical debt cycles go from 5 to 7 years. It's been just over 2 years since we crashed .1% GDP or even half percent GDP is still growth.

The credit markets are super important to the growth of our economy. We have not seen credit shrink quite yet. As the 10-year yield gets up over 2.8%, the spreads widen and banks tend to make more money. So credit has not started tightening yet.

There's more money in the system than ever. The number that Ray Dalio throws out is there's about $3 trillion in cash with just $50 trillion in credit.

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Will the 10-year go up? Will it matter what the Fed is doing? The Fed is now trying to fight inflation. We are at full employment as an economy. Our jobless claims, which is kind of like a vis-à-vis layoff indicator, is at its lowest since the 60s. We have over 10 to 11 million jobs open that people are not taking. That's what the Fed is going to do.

The public is talking about the plan of attack for quantitative tightening. So the idea and the consensus is that at the May 4th meeting by the Fed that they will announce a 50 basis point rate hike. And then they're going to say that they will have a cap of up to $95 billion per day in, I guess, quantitative tightening of mortgage-backed securities.

My home state of Texas passed a law that allows the homestead exemption to start immediately, as soon as you buy a home and be pro-rated. Homestead exemption is if this is your homestead and this is your primary residence and this is where I'm going to plant my flag and come hell or high water, I'm going to pay this bill before anything else, no matter what. You get a tax break.

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A non-qualified mortgage was defined as such by Dodd-Frank when that legislation was passed. Subprime loans absolutely wrecked Fannie, Freddie, and Ginnie and everything that was going on. And Fannie and Freddie used to buy loans that were considered subprime. So in part of Dodd-Frank, what they did is they define what is a qualified mortgage versus a non-qualified mortgage.

A non-qualified mortgage has certain characteristics like possibly interest-only, maybe has a balloon payment, doesn't meet Fannie Freddie guidelines, for example, you could have a foreclosure today and buy a home tomorrow and you could do a non-qualified mortgage.

The secondary market is cold, heartless and unforgiving. Don't ever forget that. And you're seeing it right now, the non-QM market.

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We have seen a meteoric rise in interest rates. It is one of the quickest rate rises we've seen in a long time, and that's because it's kind of run in parallel with inflation being hot and the economy running hot. And, Jerome Powell, the Fed chairman, would like you to keep the word inflation out of your mouth because he talked about it being transitory.

The big headline was the billionaire tax or a wealth tax. So basically, if you have $100 million or more in assets, or if you're making $100 million and you don't pay 20% tax on the income you report, then your assets and your unrealized gains can be taxed according to the president's proposal. We'll see if it passes.

A recession can happen in 24 months. But how do we get there? We can have ups and downs, it could be very choppy. Tomorrow could be a new day. It's a new quarter, a new month.

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What is the mortgage collaborative? It is a group of lenders that are here to talk about what's working, and what's not working. How are we going to face margin compression? Which vendors and partners are delivering great CRM? What are we all dealing with out here as professionals? That is the point of collaborating.

Fed Chairman Jay Powell said that they assumed that the supply chain would get better. They assumed that inflation would get under control. He basically said they were wrong. They went from a 2% target back in June 2021, and now we're up at almost 8% inflation. So that's been a real problem.

The Fed is worried about inflation. They know they messed up. They made some assumptions and they're going to own it. But doesn't help the poor. We're facing rising home prices, rent costs, fuel, and food. But what helps people, no matter where they are, is getting them into a house. Let's keep putting people in homes, and keep building our communities.

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We are at a 3.8% unemployment rate. 12 of our 50 states in December have had the lowest unemployment rate ever. We have over 11 million job openings. The economy is strong. With the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there is a heightened sense of inflation. There's a sense that unexpected inflation may be worse than we think.

Could the ripple effect of Russia affect us? Russia is the 11th largest GDP nation in the world, a G20 nation, the ripple effect is large and there's a contagion.

People are talking about a recession. We know that earnings will slow down. We know that inflation is going to hurt companies. It's certainly hurting our pocketbooks.

Quantitative easing ended. The tapering was over. A lot of factors coming into play will bring some more certainty. So keep pressing forward.

There's only $3 trillion of money in the market, but there's $50 trillion of credit in the market. Housing starts were strong. The economy's strong right now. We basically have a 1.9% Fed funds rate.

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Russia invaded Ukraine. How will it impact us and housing and the broader economy? The interest rates actually improved, it got better, lower and the stock market rebounded on the same day when Vladimir Putin and the Russian army invaded Ukraine. Why?

The secondary market, the equity markets, and anything having to do with money is cold, heartless and unforgiving. And it's a sad state of affairs. But the reality is, our markets don't care. They keep on going. Life goes on.

The ruble got annihilated to its lowest level in years and came down 6% premarket. Russian stock exchange tanked. How long will the invasion last? Will it affect us here in the US with our fertilizer prices, which will affect our food prices?

My heart goes out to everybody dealing with the death and destruction around the world. Stay safe.

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We are an interconnected global economy. And whether we like it or not, Russia is part of that society. They're part of the UN Security Council. They are a major global force, as it relates at least to oil and gas. And so there will be repercussions. But for now, the flight to safety has created lower interest rates.

And for housing, that's a good thing. It helps with affordability. We saw the ten-year touch around 2% and it kind of hovered around there for a couple of trading sessions. It came down to like 1.82% or 1.84%. So this trend of slowing growth, will the US economy go into a recession? Obviously, the Russian economy is going into, potentially a recession.

We need liquidity in the system. When money is set aside, when businesses save, when businesses hoard or businesses feel like the taxes are going to be raised, and they have to set money aside or capital requirements are raised, that's less money exchanging hands and thus there's less velocity and that's not good for the economy. The velocity of money slows down and so does our economy. And that's how you end up sometimes in a recession.

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Russia invaded Ukraine. How will it impact us and housing and the broader economy? The interest rates actually improved, it got better, lower and the stock market rebounded on the same day when Vladimir Putin and the Russian army invaded Ukraine. Why?

The secondary market, the equity markets, and anything having to do with money is cold, heartless and unforgiving. And it's a sad state of affairs. But the reality is, our markets don't care. They keep on going. Life goes on.

The ruble got annihilated to its lowest level in years and came down 6% premarket. Russian stock exchange tanked. How long will the invasion last? Will it affect us here in the US with our fertilizer prices, which will affect our food prices?

My heart goes out to everybody dealing with the death and destruction around the world. Stay safe.

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We recently had our sales rally for both the retail and the TPO channels with correspondent wholesale at the Balboa Bay Resort. We rewarded all of our top originators, top branch managers, county executives, regional managers, divisions, and everybody who worked hard in 2021. It's a great event!

We had a big CPI inflation read. What consumers are paying for like goods and services, rent, and housing, which make up 43% of CPI. The rent was up 17% year-over-year. If you take out food and energy, the core CPI is 6%.

Uncertainty reigns supreme as Russia is trying to invade Ukraine. 50,000 civilians could be killed. It could shut down the European oil and natural gas supply, of which 25% of the oil of Europe comes from Russia and 33% of their natural gas comes from Russia.

The consumer sentiment report just came out. It was the lowest readings since 2009 over a decade. Investors are putting their money in stock aka equities. The Fed is going crazy right now.

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