Kuby's Commentary

The information provided in this commentary is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase any security, product, or brokerage service. The information is not intended to be used as the basis for investment decisions, nor should the information be construed as advice designed to meet the particular needs of any investor. This commentary is presented to illustrate examples of the securities that North Star Investment Management Corporation and/or its affiliates ("North Star") may have bought for client accounts and the diversity of markets in which North Star Investments may invest, and may not be representative of current or future investments. You should not assume that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly in this commentary will be profitable or will be equal to any corresponding performance levels that might be indicated. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments in securities involve risks including the possible loss of the principal invested. North Star and others associated with it, including employees, may have positions in and effect transactions in securities of companies mentioned or indirectly referenced in this commentary. North Star may buy, sell or hold these securities in proprietary or client accounts. North Star will not be providing regular updates or advising you of any changes in the views expressed herein. Investors should consider their investment objectives, risk tolerance, and financial situation and needs before investing in any security. Tax considerations, commissions, fees and other costs should be carefully evaluated with one's investment and/or tax advisors. Information provided is obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, but North Star cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information. This material may not be reproduced, distributed or transmitted to any other person in whole or in part without the prior written consent of North Star. A copy of North Star Investment Management Corporation's Form ADV Brochure, Privacy Notice and Business Continuity Plan summary can be obtained by calling 312-580-0900.

Last week's market rebound continued for the third consecutive week, nearly recovering April's losses, buoyed by optimistic earnings reports and expectations of 2024 Fed interest rate cuts. Despite some lagging earnings from capital equipment companies, overall composite growth for the first quarter increased, with every industry sector finishing positively. This week, focus shifts to key economic releases, particularly U.S. retail sales and the consumer price index (CPI), alongside earnings reports from major retailers like Walmart and Home Depot. Market activity will likely hinge on any variance from the consensus estimate of a 3.4% rise in the CPI for April, impacting both stock and bond trading.

Last week, Wall Street saw a positive turn with strong earnings reports, a slightly dovish tone from the Federal Reserve, and softer job data leading to a rally in equity markets. Despite lower-than-expected job gains and a slight increase in unemployment, the overall economic sentiment remained steady, potentially paving the way for lower interest rates. Earnings season continued with notable reports from Amazon and Apple, contributing to a positive market outlook. Looking ahead, with more S&P 500 companies reporting earnings and Fed officials resuming discussions amidst softer economic indicators, market sentiment may fluctuate but could improve over the summer if inflation remains controlled.

Last week, the market saw a minor pullback rather than a significant correction, with gains in major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. Small and mid-cap sectors lagged behind due to concerns about economic challenges and interest rate hikes. Economic data hinted at lower-than-expected GDP growth and higher inflation, leading to discussions of potential stagflation. This week, investors are eyeing the Federal Reserve meeting, April jobs report, and corporate earnings, particularly from tech giants like Apple and Amazon.

Last week, the stock market faced significant pressure, with the S&P 500 extending its losing streak to six days, leading to its worst weekly performance in over a year and entering correction territory. Geopolitical concerns and disappointing earnings, particularly in the Tech and Health Care sectors, contributed to the downturn. However, the Financials sector saw positive earnings growth, with banking stocks like Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase showing promise. This week, attention turns to earnings reports from major companies like Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Alphabet, alongside economic data releases such as the personal consumption expenditure price index, which could influence market movements amid inflation concerns.

Investors faced a challenging start in April, marked by market declines driven by strong economic data and Fed's stance on interest rates. Energy price spikes and bond market turbulence added to inflation concerns. Despite positive economic indicators, expectations for Fed rate cuts in June diminished, impacting market performance negatively, with small caps hit hardest. Looking ahead, upcoming earnings reports and CPI data release will influence market sentiment and Fed's policy decisions.

In March, Wall Street witnessed a bullish run with record highs in the S&P 500, supported by small and mid-cap stock outperformance, marking a strong end to the first quarter. Investors are encouraged to consider small-cap allocations due to potential benefits from Fed rate cuts, driving lower yields and higher stock prices. Additionally, U.S. consumer sentiment rose unexpectedly in March, while inflation remained in check. Looking ahead, focus remains on the BLS jobs report for March, with expectations of moderate job additions, and stable estimates for S&P 500 earnings growth during the upcoming earnings season.

Investors celebrated as the market rebounded strongly, led by Nvidia's optimistic forecast and the Federal Reserve's indication of maintaining interest rates. The S&P 500 surged by 2.3%, its best performance of the year, with other indices also posting significant gains. Treasury yields dipped, while the dollar strengthened, and commodities markets remained stable. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's comments on the need for interest rate cuts to align with real interest rates were echoed, suggesting potential positive effects on stock prices, particularly for small-cap companies. Looking ahead, the focus will stay on monetary policy, with key economic data releases and Powell's participation in a Fed conference at the end of the week, while the college basketball championship also garners attention.

March came in like a bull for the stock market, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching record highs fueled by tech stocks and consumer-related issues, driven partly by declining Treasury yields and better-than-expected corporate earnings. Despite troubles at New York Community Bancorp, the regional bank index remained steady. Small caps led the market during the week, with the Russell 2000 surging 2.9%, while trading volume was heavy and advancing issues outnumbered declining ones. Looking ahead, upcoming earnings reports from companies like Target, Kroger, and Costco will offer insight into the health of the U.S. consumer, and the BLS jobs report for February may provide further indicators for the Federal Reserve's rate decisions.

The information provided in this commentary is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase any security, product, or brokerage service. The information is not intended to be used as the basis for investment decisions, nor should the information be construed as advice designed to meet the particular needs of any investor. This commentary is presented to illustrate examples of the securities that North Star Investment Management Corporation and/or its affiliates ("North Star") may have bought for client accounts and the diversity of markets in which North Star Investments may invest, and may not be representative of current or future investments. You should not assume that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly in this commentary will be profitable or will be equal to any corresponding performance levels that might be indicated. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments in securities involve risks including the possible loss of the principal invested. North Star and others associated with it, including employees, may have positions in and effect transactions in securities of companies mentioned or indirectly referenced in this commentary. North Star may buy, sell or hold these securities in proprietary or client accounts. North Star will not be providing regular updates or advising you of any changes in the views expressed herein. Investors should consider their investment objectives, risk tolerance, and financial situation and needs before investing in any security. Tax considerations, commissions, fees and other costs should be carefully evaluated with one's investment and/or tax advisors. Information provided is obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, but North Star cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information. This material may not be reproduced, distributed or transmitted to any other person in whole or in part without the prior written consent of North Star. A copy of North Star Investment Management Corporation's Form ADV Brochure, Privacy Notice and Business Continuity Plan summary can be obtained by calling 312-580-0900