Kuby's Commentary

Inflation data exceeding expectations led to a modest market sell-off, particularly affecting small caps, but bargain hunters stepped in mid-week. Concerns over Federal Reserve interest rate cuts resurfaced after the CPI and PPI reports, reducing odds of a March cut from 63% to 11%. Despite market turbulence, the Russell 2000 ended the week positively, showing resilience. Earnings season continues with notable beats, while attention shifts to upcoming reports from companies like Walmart and NVIDIA, alongside the release of FOMC meeting minutes mid-week.

Market participants received encouraging inflation data after the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revised the Consumer Price Index, showing a 0.2% rise in core consumer prices for December. This, along with a resilient economy and strong earnings season, fueled a market rally with major averages marking their fifth consecutive weekly gains. Earnings season continued to surprise positively, with the S&P 500 reporting higher earnings growth for the fourth quarter, especially in sectors like Financials and Industrials. Looking ahead, as earnings growth is expected to accelerate in 2024, upcoming economic releases, including inflation and retail sales reports, could influence interest rate decisions and potentially benefit small caps disproportionately.

Corporate earnings and U.S. economic data brought positive news, offset by moderately hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. Strong performances in Health Care, Information Technology, Energy, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication sectors led to a rise in S&P 500 composite earnings. Meta Platforms Inc, Apple Inc, Microsoft Corp, and Amazon.com Inc were among the standout companies with positive earnings. The Federal Reserve maintained unchanged interest rates, signaling progress in inflation reduction but delaying rate cuts until at least May. Despite initial market fluctuations, the week ended with record-setting highs for the S&P 500. Additionally, North Star expresses optimism for consistently lower interest rates and improved stock prices in small caps in 2024.

The information provided in this commentary is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase any security, product, or brokerage service. The information is not intended to be used as the basis for investment decisions, nor should the information be construed as advice designed to meet the particular needs of any investor. This commentary is presented to illustrate examples of the securities that North Star Investment Management Corporation and/or its affiliates ("North Star") may have bought for client accounts and the diversity of markets in which North Star Investments may invest, and may not be representative of current or future investments. You should not assume that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly in this commentary will be profitable or will be equal to any corresponding performance levels that might be indicated. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments in securities involve risks including the possible loss of the principal invested. North Star and others associated with it, including employees, may have positions in and effect transactions in securities of companies mentioned or indirectly referenced in this commentary. North Star may buy, sell or hold these securities in proprietary or client accounts. North Star will not be providing regular updates or advising you of any changes in the views expressed herein. Investors should consider their investment objectives, risk tolerance, and financial situation and needs before investing in any security. Tax considerations, commissions, fees and other costs should be carefully evaluated with one's investment and/or tax advisors. Information provided is obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, but North Star cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information. This material may not be reproduced, distributed or transmitted to any other person in whole or in part without the prior written consent of North Star. A copy of North Star Investment Management Corporation's Form ADV Brochure, Privacy Notice and Business Continuity Plan summary can be obtained by calling 312-580-0900

Investor optimism soared as positive economic data, including a 3.3% growth in the U.S. GDP for Q4 2023, exceeded the expected 2% gain. The core PCE price index rose 0.2% in December, signaling a strong economy with moderate inflation. The S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Russell 2000 all posted gains, with Oil & Gas stocks leading the way. Notable Q4 2023 earnings growth contributors in the S&P 500 were NVIDIA, Amazon.com, Meta Platforms, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Apple, collectively expected to deliver a 53.7% surge, while excluding them indicated a -10.5% decline for the remaining 494 companies. The blog also highlighted the success of the Chicago Maroons in college basketball and anticipated lively market action with the Federal Reserve meeting and earnings reports from major companies, including Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Advanced Micro Devices. The energy sector, particularly Exxon Mobil and Chevron, faces challenges with a forecasted 30%+ earnings decline due to lower oil prices. Boeing, dealing with grounded planes and stock prices, is also set to report earnings. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates steady, but Chairman Powell's comments will be closely scrutinized for hints of potential rate cuts.

The information provided in this commentary is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase any security, product, or brokerage service. The information is not intended to be used as the basis for investment decisions, nor should the information be construed as advice designed to meet the particular needs of any investor. This commentary is presented to illustrate examples of the securities that North Star Investment Management Corporation and/or its affiliates ("North Star") may have bought for client accounts and the diversity of markets in which North Star Investments may invest, and may not be representative of current or future investments. You should not assume that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly in this commentary will be profitable or will be equal to any corresponding performance levels that might be indicated. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments in securities involve risks including the possible loss of the principal invested. North Star and others associated with it, including employees, may have positions in and effect transactions in securities of companies mentioned or indirectly referenced in this commentary. North Star may buy, sell or hold these securities in proprietary or client accounts. North Star will not be providing regular updates or advising you of any changes in the views expressed herein. Investors should consider their investment objectives, risk tolerance, and financial situation and needs before investing in any security. Tax considerations, commissions, fees and other costs should be carefully evaluated with one's investment and/or tax advisors. Information provided is obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, but North Star cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information. This material may not be reproduced, distributed or transmitted to any other person in whole or in part without the prior written consent of North Star. A copy of North Star Investment Management Corporation's Form ADV Brochure, Privacy Notice and Business Continuity Plan summary can be obtained by calling 312-580-0900.

This episode discusses the perplexing contrast between a robust economy and persistently low consumer sentiment over the past 18 months. Recently, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index showed a significant 13% increase in the first half of January, marking a 29% surge since November – the most substantial two-month rise since 1991. The positive shift is attributed to a decline in gas prices, with the correlation between fuel costs and consumer sentiment highlighted. Investors experienced a positive turn, leading to a 1.2% rise in the S&P 500 and a 2.3% jump in the Nasdaq Composite, reversing losses earlier in the week. The earnings season commenced with a weak start, but expectations are for an improving narrative as more companies release results. Economic focus includes the preliminary Q4 GDP reading in the U.S. and global flash PMIs. The blog also mentions upcoming monetary policy statements and interest rate decisions from major central banks, along with a blackout period for Federal Reserve members ahead of the next FOMC meeting.

The information provided in this commentary is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase any security, product, or brokerage service. The information is not intended to be used as the basis for investment decisions, nor should the information be construed as advice designed to meet the particular needs of any investor. This commentary is presented to illustrate examples of the securities that North Star Investment Management Corporation and/or its affiliates ("North Star") may have bought for client accounts and the diversity of markets in which North Star Investments may invest, and may not be representative of current or future investments. You should not assume that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly in this commentary will be profitable or will be equal to any corresponding performance levels that might be indicated. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments in securities involve risks including the possible loss of the principal invested. North Star and others associated with it, including employees, may have positions in and effect transactions in securities of companies mentioned or indirectly referenced in this commentary. North Star may buy, sell or hold these securities in proprietary or client accounts. North Star will not be providing regular updates or advising you of any changes in the views expressed herein. Investors should consider their investment objectives, risk tolerance, and financial situation and needs before investing in any security. Tax considerations, commissions, fees and other costs should be carefully evaluated with one's investment and/or tax advisors. Information provided is obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, but North Star cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information. This material may not be reproduced, distributed or transmitted to any other person in whole or in part without the prior written consent of North Star. A copy of North Star Investment Management Corporation's Form ADV Brochure, Privacy Notice and Business Continuity Plan summary can be obtained by calling 312-580-0900.

The information provided in this commentary is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase any security, product, or brokerage service. The information is not intended to be used as the basis for investment decisions, nor should the information be construed as advice designed to meet the particular needs of any investor. This commentary is presented to illustrate examples of the securities that North Star Investment Management Corporation and/or its affiliates ("North Star") may have bought for client accounts and the diversity of markets in which North Star Investments may invest, and may not be representative of current or future investments. You should not assume that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly in this commentary will be profitable or will be equal to any corresponding performance levels that might be indicated. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments in securities involve risks including the possible loss of the principal invested. North Star and others associated with it, including employees, may have positions in and effect transactions in securities of companies mentioned or indirectly referenced in this commentary. North Star may buy, sell or hold these securities in proprietary or client accounts. North Star will not be providing regular updates or advising you of any changes in the views expressed herein. Investors should consider their investment objectives, risk tolerance, and financial situation and needs before investing in any security. Tax considerations, commissions, fees and other costs should be carefully evaluated with one's investment and/or tax advisors. Information provided is obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, but North Star cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information. This material may not be reproduced, distributed or transmitted to any other person in whole or in part without the prior written consent of North Star. A copy of North Star Investment Management Corporation's Form ADV Brochure, Privacy Notice and Business Continuity Plan summary can be obtained by calling 312-580-0900.

The information provided in this commentary is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase any security, product, or brokerage service. The information is not intended to be used as the basis for investment decisions, nor should the information be construed as advice designed to meet the particular needs of any investor. This commentary is presented to illustrate examples of the securities that North Star Investment Management Corporation and/or its affiliates ("North Star") may have bought for client accounts and the diversity of markets in which North Star Investments may invest, and may not be representative of current or future investments. You should not assume that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly in this commentary will be profitable or will be equal to any corresponding performance levels that might be indicated. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments in securities involve risks including the possible loss of the principal invested. North Star and others associated with it, including employees, may have positions in and effect transactions in securities of companies mentioned or indirectly referenced in this commentary. North Star may buy, sell or hold these securities in proprietary or client accounts. North Star will not be providing regular updates or advising you of any changes in the views expressed herein. Investors should consider their investment objectives, risk tolerance, and financial situation and needs before investing in any security. Tax considerations, commissions, fees and other costs should be carefully evaluated with one's investment and/or tax advisors. Information provided is obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, but North Star cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information. This material may not be reproduced, distributed or transmitted to any other person in whole or in part without the prior written consent of North Star. A copy of North Star Investment Management Corporation's Form ADV Brochure, Privacy Notice and Business Continuity Plan summary can be obtained by calling 312-580-0900.

Post-Christmas, the S&P 500 rose 0.3%, Nasdaq gained 0.1%, and Russell 2000 slipped 0.3% with a continuing Santa Claus rally. Despite modest gains and lower trading volume, most sectors ended positively, except for Oil & Gas. The 10-year Treasury yield settled at 3.87%, echoing the year's start, following the Federal Reserve's shift in late 2023. North Star plans to challenge emerging consensus views in 2024, expressing confidence in quarterback Justin Fields for the Chicago Bears amidst a Goldilocks economic theme.

The information provided in this commentary is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase any security, product, or brokerage service. The information is not intended to be used as the basis for investment decisions, nor should the information be construed as advice designed to meet the particular needs of any investor. This commentary is presented to illustrate examples of the securities that North Star Investment Management Corporation and/or its affiliates ("North Star") may have bought for client accounts and the diversity of markets in which North Star Investments may invest, and may not be representative of current or future investments. You should not assume that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly in this commentary will be profitable or will be equal to any corresponding performance levels that might be indicated. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments in securities involve risks including the possible loss of the principal invested. North Star and others associated with it, including employees, may have positions in and effect transactions in securities of companies mentioned or indirectly referenced in this commentary. North Star may buy, sell or hold these securities in proprietary or client accounts. North Star will not be providing regular updates or advising you of any changes in the views expressed herein. Investors should consider their investment objectives, risk tolerance, and financial situation and needs before investing in any security. Tax considerations, commissions, fees and other costs should be carefully evaluated with one's investment and/or tax advisors. Information provided is obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, but North Star cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information. This material may not be reproduced, distributed or transmitted to any other person in whole or in part without the prior written consent of North Star. A copy of North Star Investment Management Corporation's Form ADV Brochure, Privacy Notice and Business Continuity Plan summary can be obtained by calling 312-580-0900.

Latest economic indicators from the Labor Department reveal a return to normalcy, with U.S. job openings hitting a 2-1/2-year low and a ratio of 1.34 vacancies per unemployed person in October. November saw 199,000 job additions, reducing the unemployment rate to 3.7% and mitigating wage inflation as resignations decrease. Equity markets responded positively, marking the sixth consecutive week of gains. The bond market remained stable, while economic data from China hinted at deepening deflation. The upcoming week includes key events like the Bureau of Labor Statistics consumer price index report and the Federal Reserve's expected decision to maintain interest rates.

The information provided in this commentary is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase any security, product, or brokerage service. The information is not intended to be used as the basis for investment decisions, nor should the information be construed as advice designed to meet the particular needs of any investor. This commentary is presented to illustrate examples of the securities that North Star Investment Management Corporation and/or its affiliates ("North Star") may have bought for client accounts and the diversity of markets in which North Star Investments may invest, and may not be representative of current or future investments. You should not assume that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly in this commentary will be profitable or will be equal to any corresponding performance levels that might be indicated. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments in securities involve risks including the possible loss of the principal invested. North Star and others associated with it, including employees, may have positions in and effect transactions in securities of companies mentioned or indirectly referenced in this commentary. North Star may buy, sell or hold these securities in proprietary or client accounts. North Star will not be providing regular updates or advising you of any changes in the views expressed herein. Investors should consider their investment objectives, risk tolerance, and financial situation and needs before investing in any security. Tax considerations, commissions, fees and other costs should be carefully evaluated with one's investment and/or tax advisors. Information provided is obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, but North Star cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information. This material may not be reproduced, distributed or transmitted to any other person in whole or in part without the prior written consent of North Star. A copy of North Star Investment Management Corporation's Form ADV Brochure, Privacy Notice and Business Continuity Plan summary can be obtained by calling 312-580-0900.