On this episode: House majorities have grown razor-thin in recent elections, with three cycles in a row decided by just a handful of seats. Kyle Kondik of Sabato’s Crystal Ball joins to explain how voter sorting, redistricting changes, and a shrinking battlefield are shaping the odds for 2026. He breaks down why historical midterm trends may be less reliable, how key states like New York, Ohio, and Wisconsin could swing control, and why even small shifts—just one or two seats—can have outsized effects.

Read Kondik’s analysis: https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/the-house-a-big-sort-lowers-the-odds-of-a-big-wave/ 

Explore our ‘26 House elections page: https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2026 

This year, we're hoping to learn more about our audience and what topics you want us to tackle. Complete a brief 5 minute survey to review the show and share some feedback: https://forms.gle/zPxYSog5civyvEKX6 

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*On The Ballot is a conversational podcast featuring interviews with guests across the political spectrum. The views and opinions expressed by them are solely their own and are not representative of the views of the host or Ballotpedia as a whole.