On the Ballot

On this episode: How gas prices, populist sentiments, and presidential approval are shaping the midterms, competitive Senate contests in Texas, Ohio, Iowa, and Kansas, and how much redistricting matters for the House. Kyle also shares the Virginia and Kentucky races worth watching early on election night.

On the Ballot’s Midterm Mania is here to help you know your ballot up and down before you vote on November 3rd. Tune in for conversations with election analysts, journalists, and Ballotpedia’s brightest on policy, the people, and everything in between. Subscribe and stay ahead of the headlines! 

Episode Highlights:

• 00:00 - Show Intro & Meet Kyle Kondik

• 03:07 - Is a Wave Election Coming?

• 07:24 - Can We Trust the Polls?

• 12:25 - Redistricting and the House Map

• 18:08 - Virginia’s Competitive House Races

• 22:07 - Sleeper Races and Early Election Night Signals

Show Notes:

• Kyle Kondik is managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the University of Virginia Center for Politics’ nonpartisan election newsletter, and a member of the CBS News Election Decision Desk team.

• Follow Kyle’s latest race ratings and analysis at Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and check out his book The Long Red Thread, a history of Republican power in the U.S. House.

More from Ballotpedia:  

• Sign up for Civic Blueprints, a substack by Ballotpedia Founder and CEO Leslie Graves: ⁠https://civicblueprints.substack.com/ 

• Sign up for our Newsletters: https://ballotpedia.org/Ballotpedia_Email_Updates 

Stream On the Ballot on Spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts. If you have questions, comments, or love for BP, feel free to reach out at [email protected] or on X (formerly Twitter) @Ballotpedia.

On The Ballot is a conversational podcast featuring interviews with guests across the political spectrum. The views and opinions expressed by them are solely their own and are not representative of the views of the host or Ballotpedia as a whole. 

On this episode: With under four weeks to go until Election Day, Ballotpedia CEO and founder Leslie Graves joins host Norm Leahy for a big-picture look at the 2026 midterms. They dig into "repudiation elections" and why the economy so often decides them. Leslie explains why state legislative races matter far more than most voters realize, how both parties target low-propensity voters, whether polls or prediction markets deserve more trust, and which early results on election night could signal where things are headed.

Episode Highlights:

• 00:00 - Show Intro & Meet Leslie Graves

• 01:01 - The Economy and Repudiation Elections

• 04:17 - How 2010 Reshaped State Legislatures and Redistricting

• 08:46 - Lessons From the 1894 and 1922 Midterms

• 11:54 - The Fight for Low-Propensity Voters

• 13:38 - Polls, Prediction Markets, and What to Watch on Election Night

  
  

More from Ballotpedia:  

• Read Leslie’s Column: ⁠https://ballotpedia.org/From_the_desk_of_Leslie_Graves⁠ 

• Check out our complete office hours series: ⁠https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLtP8LWIl9mMO2t_0SXnYhwMv6HHgIoL75⁠ 

• Sign up for our Newsletters: https://ballotpedia.org/Ballotpedia_Email_Updates 

Stream "On the Ballot" on Spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts. If you have questions, comments, or love for BP, feel free to reach out at [email protected] or on X (formerly Twitter) @Ballotpedia.

*On The Ballot is a conversational podcast featuring interviews with guests across the political spectrum. The views and opinions expressed by them are solely their own and are not representative of the views of the host or Ballotpedia as a whole.

On this episode: Axios co-founder Mike Allen joins Host Norm Leahy to talk about his new book, Simplify: Do 50% More with 50% Less, and why cutting through complexity matters more than ever in the age of AI. They also discuss data centers as a growing local political issue in Virginia and across the country, the three big shifts reshaping American technology, politics, and media, and why the days after the midterms could prove more eventful than election night itself. 

Episode Highlights:

(00:00) - Show Intro & Meet Mike Allen

(02:49) - Simplify's Three Steps: Confront, Delete, Amplify

(11:39) - The Politics of Data Centers

(16:38) - What to Watch During the Midterms – and After

(20:10) - Our Three ‘Tectonic’ Cultural Shifts

(27:37) - The 10-Minute Rule

Show Notes:

• Mike co-founded Axios with Jim VandeHei and Roy Schwartz (who are co-authors of Simplify) and writes its flagship newsletters, Axios AM and Axios PM. Before that, he co-founded Politico, where he created the Playbook newsletter and helped build the company through its first decade. He's also worked at TIME, The New York Times, The Washington Post, and two Virginia papers, the Richmond Times-Dispatch and the Fredericksburg Free Lance-Star.

• Learn more about and get a copy of Mike, Jim, and Roy's new book Simplify: Do 50% More with 50% Less

•  Subscribe to Axios' newsletters

More from Ballotpedia:  

• Subscribe to Ballotpedia Founder & CEO Leslie Graves Substack Civic Blueprints

• Check out our complete Office Hours series

• Sign up for our Newsletters

Stream "On the Ballot" on Spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts. If you have questions, comments, or love for BP, feel free to reach out at [email protected] or on X (formerly Twitter) @Ballotpedia.

On The Ballot is a conversational podcast featuring interviews with guests across the political spectrum. The views and opinions expressed by them are solely their own and are not representative of the views of the host or Ballotpedia as a whole.

On this episode: A city council member in Independence, Missouri became the first elected official recalled over a data center deal. But the real story isn't just Missouri—it's the 41 other recall efforts underway nationwide. Leslie Graves and Norman Leahy dig into why recalls matter as a civic tool despite small numbers, what the data actually shows versus what headlines claim, and what November could bring as communities head to the polls

• Read Leslie’s Column: ⁠https://ballotpedia.org/From_the_desk_of_Leslie_Graves⁠ 

• Check out our complete office hours series: ⁠https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLtP8LWIl9mMO2t_0SXnYhwMv6HHgIoL75⁠ 

• Complete a brief 5 minute survey to review the show and share some feedback: https://forms.gle/zPxYSog5civyvEKX6 

• Sign up for our Newsletters: https://ballotpedia.org/Ballotpedia_Email_Updates 

Stream "On the Ballot" on Spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts. If you have questions, comments, or love for BP, feel free to reach out at [email protected] or on X (formerly Twitter) @Ballotpedia.

*On The Ballot is a conversational podcast featuring interviews with guests across the political spectrum. The views and opinions expressed by them are solely their own and are not representative of the views of the host or Ballotpedia as a whole.

On this episode: AI infrastructure has become a political issue at the local level, with recalls, ballot measures, and state preemption emerging as tools communities use to weigh in on whether or not Data Centers should come to town. As the 2026 midterms approach in November, Leslie Graves, CEO of Ballotpedia, and host Norman Leahy explore why data center decisions fall primarily to city councils and county commissions rather than state or federal officials, what candidate surveys reveal about voter concern, and what to expect as communities head to the polls this fall.

Read Leslie’s Column: ⁠https://ballotpedia.org/From_the_desk_of_Leslie_Graves⁠

Check out our complete office hours series: ⁠https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLtP8LWIl9mMO2t_0SXnYhwMv6HHgIoL75⁠

Complete a brief 5 minute survey to review the show and share some feedback: https://forms.gle/zPxYSog5civyvEKX6

Sign up for our Newsletters: https://ballotpedia.org/Ballotpedia_Email_Updates

Stream "On the Ballot" on Spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts.

If you have questions, comments, or love for BP, feel free to reach out at [email protected] or on X (formerly Twitter) @Ballotpedia.

*On The Ballot is a conversational podcast featuring interviews with guests across the political spectrum. The views and opinions expressed by them are solely their own and are not representative of the views of the host or Ballotpedia as a whole.

On this episode: Norman Leahy sits down with Ballotpedia CEO and Founder Leslie Graves to explore how foundational literary works—like Don Quixote and The Seven Brothers—shape national character and culture. They examine why America, despite being born from enlightenment philosophy, has never produced a true, definitive national novel, and what that absence might say about how Americans understand themselves as people. 

• Read Leslie’s Column: ⁠https://ballotpedia.org/From_the_desk_of_Leslie_Graves⁠ 

• Check out our complete office hours series: ⁠https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLtP8LWIl9mMO2t_0SXnYhwMv6HHgIoL75⁠ 

• Complete a brief 5 minute survey to review the show and share some feedback: https://forms.gle/zPxYSog5civyvEKX6 

• Sign up for our Newsletters: https://ballotpedia.org/Ballotpedia_Email_Updates 

Stream "On the Ballot" on Spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts. If you have questions, comments, or love for BP, feel free to reach out at [email protected] or on X (formerly Twitter) @Ballotpedia.

*On The Ballot is a conversational podcast featuring interviews with guests across the political spectrum. The views and opinions expressed by them are solely their own and are not representative of the views of the host or Ballotpedia as a whole.

On this episode: Ballotpedia founder and CEO Leslie Graves joins host Norman Leahy to look back at how the country has celebrated — and processed — its milestone birthdays. From the muted 50th anniversary in 1826, when both John Adams and Thomas Jefferson died on the same July 4th, to Philadelphia's sprawling 1876 centennial (where the refrigerator debuted and the Statue of Liberty's torch made its first public appearance), to the more conflicted bicentennial of 1976, each celebration has reflected where America thought it stood. Plus: Mel Brooks turns 100, Ballotpedia turns 19, and a Biden campaign postmortem that puts Ballotpedia in some unexpected company.Read Leslie’s Column: ⁠https://ballotpedia.org/From_the_desk_of_Leslie_Graves⁠ Check out our complete office hours series: ⁠https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLtP8LWIl9mMO2t_0SXnYhwMv6HHgIoL75⁠ Complete a brief 5 minute survey to review the show and share some feedback: https://forms.gle/zPxYSog5civyvEKX6 Sign up for our Newsletters: https://ballotpedia.org/Ballotpedia_Email_Updates Stream "On the Ballot" on Spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts. If you have questions, comments, or love for BP, feel free to reach out at [email protected] or on X (formerly Twitter) @Ballotpedia.*On The Ballot is a conversational podcast featuring interviews with guests across the political spectrum. The views and opinions expressed by them are solely their own and are not representative of the views of the host or Ballotpedia as a whole.

On this episode: Running an election is harder than it looks — and it's always been that way. Ballotpedia founder and CEO Leslie Graves joins host Norman Leahy to walk through how elections actually get administered, from the surprisingly murky process of figuring out which district you live in to the chaotic, largely improvised vote that determined whether Kansas would enter the Union as a free state or a slave state. Along the way, they explore the surprisingly recent history of the secret ballot, how party-printed ballots once made your vote visible to everyone around you, the origins of the ballot initiative process, and why states that have it are unlikely to ever give it up.

• Read Leslie’s Column: https://ballotpedia.org/From_the_desk_of_Leslie_Graves 

• Check out our complete office hours series: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLtP8LWIl9mMO2t_0SXnYhwMv6HHgIoL75 

• Are you running for office, or struggling to find information for a candidate? Send them our Candidate Connection Survey or take it yourself: https://ballotpedia.org/Ballotpedia%27s_Candidate_Connection 

• Looking to get involved? Learn more about volunteer opportunities with Ballotpedia here: https://ballotpedia.org/Support:Volunteer 

• Complete a brief 5 minute survey to review the show and share some feedback: https://forms.gle/zPxYSog5civyvEKX6 

• Sign up for our Newsletters: https://ballotpedia.org/Ballotpedia_Email_Updates 

Stream "On the Ballot" on Spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts. If you have questions, comments, or love for BP, feel free to reach out at [email protected] or on X (formerly Twitter) @Ballotpedia.

*On The Ballot is a conversational podcast featuring interviews with guests across the political spectrum. The views and opinions expressed by them are solely their own and are not representative of the views of the host or Ballotpedia as a whole.

On this episode: Redistricting happens every decade — but lately it's been making news on a much shorter cycle. Ballotpedia's redistricting expert Nathan Maxwell joins host Norman Leahy to walk through how the process actually works, from reapportionment basics to the three main methods states use to draw their maps. Then they get into why redistricting keeps landing in court, what recent Supreme Court rulings like Louisiana v. Calais have changed, and what to watch as new maps take shape ahead of the 2026 midterms. Plus: the 1812 origin of gerrymandering, a pre-Constitution power play by Patrick Henry, and a 28-sided monstrosity from 1957 Alabama.

• Learn more about the redistricting battles taking place across the country ahead of the 2026 midterms: https://ballotpedia.org/Redistricting_ahead_of_the_2026_elections 

• Complete a brief 5 minute survey to review the show and share some feedback: https://forms.gle/zPxYSog5civyvEKX6 

• Sign up for our Newsletters: https://ballotpedia.org/Ballotpedia_Email_Updates 

Stream "On the Ballot" on Spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts. If you have questions, comments, or love for BP, feel free to reach out at [email protected] or on X (formerly Twitter) @Ballotpedia.

*On The Ballot is a conversational podcast featuring interviews with guests across the political spectrum. The views and opinions expressed by them are solely their own and are not representative of the views of the host or Ballotpedia as a whole.