Kyler Hood's DFW Market Brief

September existing-home sales ran at a 3.99 million annual pace, up 1.5 percent from August but down 2.2 percent from a year ago. The median price hit 417,500 dollars while inventory reached 1.60 million homes. Why a monthly gain is not a turnaround, and where buyers actually have leverage.

The numbers from this episode:

• Existing-home sales: 3.99 million annual pace, up 1.5 percent from August, down 2.2 percent from a year ago (NAR)
• Median price: 417,500 dollars, up 1.3 percent from a year ago, 39th straight month of yearly gains (NAR)
• Inventory: 1.60 million homes, up 4.6 percent from a year ago, 4.8 months of supply (NAR)
• Typical time on market: 33 days, up from 31 days in August (NAR)
• First-time buyers: 31 percent of sales (NAR)
• South region: sales up 2.8 percent from August, median 361,000 dollars (NAR)
• "August and September were the two slowest months for home sales this year." (Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist)

Sources:

• National Association of Realtors, September 2026 existing-home sales, released October 13, 2026: https://www.reuters.com/business/us-existing-home-sales-rise-september-higher-mortgage-rates-dim-outlook-2026-10-13/

Kyler Hood, eXp Realty, TX license #828001. 469-434-2586. https://kylerhood.com

Freddie Mac's weekly survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.32 percent, down from 7.40 percent and the first weekly decline since August 20. A small move down from a 52-week high, not a turn. What that move is worth in dollars, what the survey actually measures, and why a builder buydown means nobody's real quote looks like the headline.

The numbers from this episode:

• 30-year fixed: 7.32 percent for the week ending October 22, down from 7.40 percent, first weekly decline since August 20, down from the 52-week high; a year ago it was 6.19 percent (Freddie Mac)
• 15-year fixed: 6.68 percent, down from 6.71 percent; a year ago it was 5.44 percent (Freddie Mac)
• "The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage declined this week, offering some relief to prospective homebuyers." (Sam Khater, Freddie Mac chief economist)
• On a 400,000 dollar loan, principal and interest only: about 2,748 dollars a month at 7.32 percent, about 2,770 dollars at 7.40 percent, about 2,447 dollars a year ago (arithmetic on the Freddie Mac rates)
• A 2,500 dollar monthly budget buys about a 364,000 dollar loan now, versus about 409,000 dollars a year ago (arithmetic)
• The survey covers conventional, conforming purchase loans for borrowers with excellent credit putting 20 percent down (Freddie Mac)
• Builder buydowns on select homes in the Rockwall, Wylie, Rowlett, and Forney area are in the 4s and 5s right now, as of this recording

Sources:

• Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, week ending October 22, 2026: https://www.morningstar.com/news/globe-newswire/9851396/mortgage-rates-decrease-to-732
• Mortgage Daily, Freddie Mac PMMS tracker (weekly vs daily): https://www.mortgagedaily.com/mortgage-rates/freddie-mac-pmms/
• Builder incentive tracker: https://kylerhood.com/#incentives

Kyler Hood, eXp Realty, TX license #828001. 469-434-2586. https://kylerhood.com

Paperwork episode: the Texas homestead exemption, the most valuable form most homeowners never file. What it knocks off your school taxes, the 10 percent annual cap that is the real long-term protection, and how to file Form 50-114 for free.

The numbers from this episode:

• 140,000 dollars off your home's value for school district taxes (Texas Comptroller; from voters last November, Proposition 13 and Senate Bill 4)
• Another 60,000 dollars for homeowners 65 or older or disabled, for 200,000 dollars total off school taxes (Texas Comptroller)
• Once filed, taxable value generally cannot rise more than 10 percent a year, plus new additions (Texas Tax Code, Section 23.23)
• Filing: Form 50-114, free, one-time, with your county appraisal district; regular deadline April 30

Sources:

• Texas Comptroller, property tax forms including Form 50-114, Residence Homestead Exemption Application: https://comptroller.Texas.gov/taxes/property-tax/forms/

Kyler Hood, eXp Realty, TX license #828001. 469-434-2586. https://kylerhood.com

A history lesson: the 30-year fixed from 1975 to 2025, and why the years near 3 percent were the anomaly, not the baseline. The two zero-rate eras were policy choices, not market gravity, and the practical read is to watch the 10-year Treasury, not the Fed press conference.

The numbers from this episode:

• 30-year fixed, federal funds rate, and 10-year Treasury yield, 1975 to 2025 (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; Freddie Mac via FRED)
• Zero-rate eras shaded as anomalies: roughly 2008 to 2015 and roughly 2020 to 2022
• Early 1980s: the 30-year fixed sat in double digits

Sources:

• eXp 2026 Context Deck (Leo Pareja), September 2026 data vintage; underlying data from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Freddie Mac via FRED

Kyler Hood, eXp Realty, TX license #828001. 469-434-2586. https://kylerhood.com

Arithmetic, not advice: what does waiting a year for a quarter-point rate drop actually cost? One year of appreciation versus one year of mortgage savings, running about 14 to 1, plus the DFW wrinkle the national math misses and the refi cost nobody puts in the spreadsheet.

The numbers from this episode:

• Year 1 appreciation on the median home: plus 9,440 dollars (eXp 2026 Context Deck)
• Year 1 mortgage savings from a 0.25 percent rate drop: plus 690 dollars (eXp 2026 Context Deck)
• The calculation: 429,100 dollar national median, projected 2.2 percent appreciation for 2027, 30-year conventional loan with 20 percent down, same property both ways
• Builder buydowns on select new-construction homes in the 4s and 5s, as of this recording

Sources:

• eXp 2026 Context Deck (Leo Pareja), September 2026 data vintage
• Builder incentive tracker: https://kylerhood.com/#incentives

Kyler Hood, eXp Realty, TX license #828001. 469-434-2586. https://kylerhood.com

246 of the 300 largest metros saw prices rise from a year ago, while existing-home sales have sat near 4 million a year since 2023. The correction already happened, and it happened in the transaction count, not in prices. What that means for DFW buyers and sellers, and why the real discounts are hiding in incentives instead of list prices.

The numbers from this episode:

• 246 of the 300 largest metro markets saw prices increase year over year in September; 54 saw prices fall (ResiClub Analytics, via the eXp 2026 Context Deck)
• Existing-home sales volumes near 4 million a year since 2023 (National Association of Realtors, via the eXp 2026 Context Deck)
• Inventory growth: up 5.9 percent from 2025 to 2026, versus up 28.9 percent from 2024 to 2025 (ResiClub; Zillow market heat index, via the eXp 2026 Context Deck)
• DFW September: closed sales down 6.6 percent, median price down 1.6 percent (MetroTex, via DFW Agent Magazine)

Sources:

• ResiClub Analytics, September 2026 data, via the eXp 2026 Context Deck (Leo Pareja)
• National Association of Realtors annual data, via the eXp 2026 Context Deck (Leo Pareja)
• Zillow market heat index, via the eXp 2026 Context Deck (Leo Pareja)
• DFW Agent Magazine, MetroTex September 2026 release: https://dfwagentmagazine.com/2026/10/13/metrotex-housing-report-sept-26/

Kyler Hood, eXp Realty, TX license #828001. 469-434-2586. https://kylerhood.com

MetroTex released its September numbers: 7,228 closed sales, down 6.6 percent from last year, while the median price slipped just 1.6 percent. Sales cooled about four times harder than prices, listings tightened at the same time, and what that standoff means for buyers negotiating terms and sellers pricing to the comps.

The numbers from this episode:

• Closed sales: 7,228, down 6.6 percent from September 2025 (MetroTex)
• Active listings: 34,502, down 2.2 percent from a year ago (MetroTex)
• Median price: 379,990 dollars, down 1.6 percent year over year and about 10,000 dollars below the August median (MetroTex)
• Typical home sold in 95 days, one day faster than last September (MetroTex)
• 4.5 months of inventory, down from 4.8 months a year ago (MetroTex)

Sources:

• DFW Agent Magazine, "Closed home sales decline in DFW as median price recedes," October 13, 2026, reporting the MetroTex Association of REALTORS September 2026 release: https://dfwagentmagazine.com/2026/10/13/metrotex-housing-report-sept-26/

Kyler Hood, eXp Realty, TX license #828001. 469-434-2586. https://kylerhood.com

Freddie Mac's weekly survey held the 30-year fixed at 7.40 percent, unchanged and the highest print in 52 weeks. Why the Thursday headline is already stale by the time you hear it, what the survey actually measures, and why builder buydowns in the 4s and 5s mean nobody's real quote looks like the headline.

The numbers from this episode:

• 30-year fixed: 7.40 percent for the week ending October 15, unchanged from the week before, a 52-week high; a year ago it was 6.27 percent (Freddie Mac)
• 15-year fixed: 6.71 percent, down a tick from 6.73 percent (Freddie Mac)
• "The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage remained unchanged this week." (Sam Khater, Freddie Mac chief economist)
• Daily benchmark the same day: about 7.29 percent versus the weekly survey's 7.40 (Optimal Blue, via Mortgage Daily)
• The survey collects lender data Monday through Wednesday and publishes Thursday, so mid-week moves show up a week late
• The survey covers conventional, conforming purchase loans for borrowers with excellent credit putting 20 percent down

Sources:

• Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, week ending October 15, 2026: https://www.tradingview.com/news/globenewswire:d0807bceb094b:0-mortgage-rates-hold-steady-at-7-40/
• Mortgage Daily, Freddie Mac PMMS tracker (weekly vs daily): https://www.mortgagedaily.com/mortgage-rates/freddie-mac-pmms/
• Builder incentive tracker: https://kylerhood.com/#incentives

Kyler Hood, eXp Realty, TX license #828001. 469-434-2586. https://kylerhood.com

HOA dues, plainly. What they are, what they usually cover in new construction, why dues vary so much between communities, and the four things to check before you buy: dues history, what's covered, whether there's a master association on top, and any planned special assessments. Plus the builder-to-homeowner handoff wrinkle and how to compare dues honestly between two communities.

The numbers from this episode:

• Dues figures in this episode are illustrative of the range across new communities, not quotes for any specific HOA

Sources:

• Texas Tax Trap Calculator (includes HOA where sampled): https://kylerhood.com/tax-trap-calculator/

Kyler Hood, eXp Realty, TX license #828001. 469-434-2586. https://kylerhood.com

A buyer tactic for quick move-in homes: how to compare two of them without getting fooled by the sticker price. Five steps — read the price history, separate the price cut from the incentive, check the build date and the community, confirm what's included, and get an outside lender quote before you commit. Plus the tradeoff between a quick move-in and a to-be-built home.

The numbers from this episode:

• All dollar figures in this episode are illustrative comparisons, not claims about any specific home or builder
• Incentive terms are as of this recording; confirm with the builder's sales office before writing anything

Sources:

• Builder incentive tracker: https://kylerhood.com/#incentives
• Run your real monthly payment: https://kylerhood.com/payment/

Kyler Hood, eXp Realty, TX license #828001. 469-434-2586. https://kylerhood.com