Kyler Hood's DFW Market Brief

The suburb spotlight this week is the number that quietly decides how far your budget goes: the property tax rate. Same 450,000 dollar new build, very different monthly tax bill depending on the city. Why you should shop the monthly payment instead of the sticker price, and the two caveats that can move the number at a specific address.

The numbers from this episode:

• A 450,000 dollar build in Forney runs about 209 dollars a month more in property taxes than the same build in Rockwall
• The same build in McLendon-Chisholm runs about 260 dollars a month more than in Forney
• A 450,000 dollar build in McKinney runs about 131 dollars a month more than the same build in Celina (McKinney ISD has a school tax vote November 3; re-verify if it passes)
• For context: the 260 dollar McLendon-Chisholm to Forney gap is bigger than the payment jump from 7.03 to 7.28 percent on a 400,000 dollar loan, about 68 dollars a month
• All gaps use adopted 2026 city rates, verified September 25, 2026; neighborhood MUD or PID assessments can move specific addresses

Sources:

• Kyler's tax homework sheet, built from adopted 2026 city, county, school district, and college district rates, verified September 25, 2026
• Texas Tax Trap Calculator: https://kylerhood.com/tax-trap-calculator/

Kyler Hood, eXp Realty, TX license #828001. 469-434-2586. https://kylerhood.com

The demand side, from the Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly survey. Purchase applications are down 15 percent from a year ago, refinances just hit their lowest since 2025, and the MBA's own 30-year rate measure printed 7.49 percent. Why fewer competing buyers means more leverage but sharper math, and why the thinnest budgets are stepping back first.

The numbers from this episode:

• Purchase applications: down 2 percent on the week, down 15 percent from a year ago (MBA)
• Refinance applications: down 8 percent on the week, down 56 percent from a year ago, lowest since 2025
• MBA average 30-year rate: 7.49 percent, highest in about 3 years (MBA's own survey measure, not Freddie Mac's)
• FHA purchase applications fell 6 percent on the week (Joel Kan, MBA)
• Refinances were 37.0 percent of all applications, down from 38.3 percent the week before
• ARM share: 10.3 percent of applications

Sources:

• Mortgage Bankers Association Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey, week ending October 2, 2026, released October 7, 2026
• Run your real monthly payment: https://kylerhood.com/payment/

Kyler Hood, eXp Realty, TX license #828001. 469-434-2586. https://kylerhood.com

Realtor.com's September data for DFW: list prices, inventory, days on market, and how many listings carried a price cut. The standout is inventory — nationally listings rose, in DFW they fell, which kept the market tighter than the country as a whole. Plus what list-side data can and can't tell you, and why new-construction incentives live in the sales office, not on listing sites.

The numbers from this episode:

• DFW median list price: 422,000 dollars in September, down 0.6 percent from a year ago (Realtor.com)
• Active listings: 29,364, down 2.3 percent from last September; nationally, active listings rose 5.4 percent
• Median days on market: 62, about 1.6 percent faster than a year ago
• Share of listings with a price cut: 27 percent, about the same as last September

Sources:

• Realtor.com, "Dallas-Fort Worth Inventory Tightens as Prices Hold Near National Average," published about October 2, 2026
• Run your real monthly payment: https://kylerhood.com/payment/

Kyler Hood, eXp Realty, TX license #828001. 469-434-2586. https://kylerhood.com

The 30-year fixed hit 7.40 percent, the highest Freddie Mac's survey has printed in 52 weeks, and the second weekly jump in a row. What that costs in real dollars on a 400,000 dollar loan, how much buying power a 2,500 dollar monthly budget just lost versus a year ago, and why builder buydowns matter more with every uptick.

The numbers from this episode:

• 30-year fixed: 7.40 percent for the week ending October 8, up from 7.28 percent the week before and 6.30 percent a year ago (Freddie Mac)
• 400,000 dollar loan at 7.40 percent: about 2,770 dollars a month, principal and interest
• Same loan at 7.28 percent: about 2,737 dollars a month, 33 dollars less
• Same loan a year ago at 6.30 percent: about 2,476 dollars a month, 294 dollars less
• A 2,500 dollar monthly budget buys about 361,000 dollars of house at 7.40 percent; a year ago it bought about 404,000 dollars, roughly 43,000 dollars less house
• The Fed raised its target rate to 3.75 to 4.00 percent on September 16, its first rate hike since 2023 (MetroTex)

Sources:

• Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, via Mortgage Daily News, week ending October 8, 2026
• MetroTex, "Mortgage Rates Near 7% as North Texas Sales Slow," September 17, 2026
• Builder incentive tracker: https://kylerhood.com/#incentives

Kyler Hood, eXp Realty, TX license #828001. 469-434-2586. https://kylerhood.com

Adjustable-rate mortgages were 10.3 percent of applications in late September, the highest share in about a year. What a 5/1 ARM actually is, how the caps work, the three numbers to get in writing before comparing one against a fixed rate, and which buyers should worry. Vocabulary, not lending advice.

The numbers from this episode:

• ARMs were 10.3% of mortgage applications, highest share since October 2025 (MBA, week ending September 25)
• ARM rates running about 0.8 percentage points below fixed rates (MBA)

Sources:

• Mortgage Bankers Association Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey, September 30, 2026: https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2026/09/30/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey
• Builder incentive tracker: https://kylerhood.com/#incentives

Kyler Hood, eXp Realty, TX license #828001. 469-434-2586. https://kylerhood.com

The relist trap: pulling a listing and putting it back on to reset the days-on-market clock. Why the MLS history gives it away, the honest three-part relaunch that actually works, and the Rockwall numbers behind the argument.

The numbers from this episode:

• DFW sellers closed at 94.8% of original list price on average (MetroTex, August 2026)
• Rockwall single-family, September: 69 average days to sell, 6 months of supply (NTREIS Matrix MLS stats, pulled October 5)

Sources:

• MetroTex August 2026 market data, via mymetrotex.com
• NTREIS Matrix MLS stats, pulled October 5, 2026
• Builder incentive tracker: https://kylerhood.com/#incentives

Kyler Hood, eXp Realty, TX license #828001. 469-434-2586. https://kylerhood.com

Most agents say don't tour a single house until you're pre-approved. Kyler disagrees. Why touring first and pre-approving second is the better order, how touring calibrates your taste before a lender calibrates your capacity, and the Forney example that makes it concrete.

The numbers from this episode:

• 30-year fixed averaged 7.28% as of October 1 (Freddie Mac), up about a full point from a year ago
• Illustrative budgets in the episode: $380,000 vs $440,000 houses; a $400,000 Forney shopping example

Sources:

• Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, October 1, 2026: https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/10/01/3373202/0/en/mortgage-rates-average-7-28.html
• Builder incentive tracker: https://kylerhood.com/#incentives

Kyler Hood, eXp Realty, TX license #828001. 469-434-2586. https://kylerhood.com

Realtor.com's first Metro Affordability and Homebuilding Report Card ranks the 100 largest metros. DFW earned a B+, scored 67.9 out of 100, and ranked 15th. The homebuilding side scored 81.3, the affordability side 54.5, and what the 8.9 percent new-build premium really means once incentives enter the picture.

The numbers from this episode:

• DFW: B+, 67.9 out of 100, ranked 15th of 100 (Realtor.com, via CultureMap Dallas)
• Homebuilding components: 81.3; affordability components: 54.5
• Median household income: $88,783; median listing price: $426,446
• Newly built homes cost 8.9% more than existing homes in DFW
• DFW permits 76% more new homes than typical for a metro its size
• Share of listings affordable at local incomes: 0.639, vs 0.675 nationally
• Houston: A, ranked 4th; Austin: A-minus, ranked 6th; Austin new builds 6% cheaper than existing

Sources:

• Realtor.com Metro Affordability & Homebuilding Report Card, via CultureMap Dallas: https://dallas.culturemap.com/news/real-estate/dallas-housing-affordability-report-card/
• Builder incentive tracker: https://kylerhood.com/#incentives

Kyler Hood, eXp Realty, TX license #828001. 469-434-2586. https://kylerhood.com

Mortgage applications just hit their slowest weekly pace since 2025. Purchase applications fell 4 percent, refinances fell 9 percent and sit 56 percent below a year ago. The buyers still in the game are reaching for ARMs at the highest share since October 2025, and what it all means for shoppers and sellers at 7.28 percent.

The numbers from this episode:

• Mortgage applications fell 6 percent from the week before (MBA, week ending September 25)
• Purchase applications fell 4 percent; both purchase and refinance hit slowest weekly pace since 2025
• Refinances fell 9 percent, 56 percent below a year ago
• Government refinances fell 13 percent in a week; FHA and VA applications both down double digits
• ARMs were 10.3 percent of applications, highest share since October 2025; ARM rates about 0.8 percentage points below fixed

Sources:

• Mortgage Bankers Association Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey, September 30, 2026: https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2026/09/30/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey
• Builder incentive tracker: https://kylerhood.com/#incentives

Kyler Hood, eXp Realty, TX license #828001. 469-434-2586. https://kylerhood.com

The 30-year fixed jumped to 7.28 percent, the largest one-week increase in about 4 years. What that costs in real dollars on a 400,000 dollar loan, how much buying power a 2,500 dollar monthly budget just lost, and why builder buydowns matter more than ever in new construction.

The numbers from this episode:

• 30-year fixed: 7.28 percent as of October 1, up from 7.03 percent the week before and 6.34 percent a year ago (Freddie Mac)
• 400,000 dollar loan at 7.28 percent: about 2,737 dollars a month, principal and interest
• Same loan at 7.03 percent: about 2,669 dollars a month, a 68 dollar difference
• Same loan a year ago at 6.34 percent: about 2,486 dollars a month, a 251 dollar difference
• A 2,500 dollar monthly budget bought about 402,000 dollars of house a year ago; at 7.28 percent it covers about 365,000 dollars, roughly 37,000 dollars less house
• Largest one-week rate increase in about 4 years, highest rate in almost 3 years (Reuters)

Sources:

• Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, October 1, 2026: https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/10/01/3373202/0/en/mortgage-rates-average-7-28.html
• Reuters, "US mortgage rates jump by most in 4 years in latest week," October 1, 2026: https://www.reuters.com/business/us-mortgage-rates-jump-by-most-4-years-latest-week-2026-10-01/
• Builder incentive tracker: https://kylerhood.com/#incentives

Kyler Hood, eXp Realty, TX license #828001. 469-434-2586. https://kylerhood.com