L2 Capital

In today's episode, Marcelo López spoke to Bill Fleckenstein, an investment manager with over 30 years of experience in the financial market. Bill shares his comments, market insights and investment ideas on the website fleckensteincapital.com.br.

Bill begins by discussing the magnitude of the attack on Saudi Arabia may have on markets depending on the actions taken in response to the incident and ponders about risk premiums and how agents have reacted to geopolitical tensions recently.

Fleckenstein then talks about the possibility that we are experiencing a bubble in the financial markets and the role that central banks, trading algorithms and passive investment vehicles play in this context, all from a historical and economic perspective, elucidating situations of distortion in asset prices.

On the possibility of a crash, Bill comments on Fed interventions, the impact of monetary policy on the market and what may be the catalyst for a strong correction, as well as aspects of the current scenario that are unprecedented in history and thus create more uncertainties.

Now is a good time to be shorting stocks? Fleckenstein, who has been very successful in the past with a short only fund, explains his point of view about being short at the moment and justifies, based on his perceptions of current market conditions, the valuations and prices observed.

Bill also talks about investing in gold and other precious metals, as well as gold mining, in contrast to other asset classes such as bonds and currencies, considering all the factors hitherto exposed.

As for the US-China trade war, Fleckenstein discusses his views on the issue and his expectations of a resolution for the problem. He also talks about the way Trump and next year's US elections might impact those obstacles.

Bill concludes with an analysis of risks that are not being properly priced by the market.

In today's episode, Marcelo López spoke to Brandon Munro, CEO of Bannerman Resources, a listed company on the Australian Stock Exchange, ASX, focused on uranium mining and development in Namibia. Brandon, who has participated in L2 Capital Podcasts #05 and #14, served on two working groups at the 2019 WNA (World Nuclear Association), Demand (as Chair) and Uranium Supply and Secondary Supply.

Munro starts discussing the impact that this weekend’s attack on Saudi Arabia could have on the energy market, particularly in relation to uranium and nuclear power as alternatives. He analyses the situation with short and long-term considerations, highlights the potential effects on investors and equity traders, and ponders the repercussions that these attacks could have on Kazakhstan, the world's largest uranium producer and also an oil producer, and the local currency, the Tenge.

Brandon then comments on the relevance of the WNA Symposium, held this year on September 11th/12th in London, for the industry and the release of the Nuclear Fuel Report. This publication, which is released every two years and has different industry participants in its preparation, analyses every aspect of the nuclear fuel cycle, from uranium exploration (U3O8), conversion to UF6, enrichment, fuel fabrication, and secondary sources.

This report, which draws projections for the period from 2019 to 2040, has three scenarios, a reference one, one optimistic and the other pessimistic. Brandon discusses what the assumptions are for each of these scenarios and points out that in all scenarios there is a growth in demand, reaching 3.5% per year in the optimistic projections.

In addition to assessing the likelihood that the optimistic scenario will materialize, he also comments on government policy initiatives that may be even more positive than previously estimated, citing, for example, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Munro, who has been attending the WNA Symposium since 2010, talks about his perception of the mood and feeling of the different participants in contrast to those of previous editions. Although the report does not discuss price-related aspects, discussions pointed to a consensus on both sides, from buyers and sellers, that prices need to rise to adjust to the reality of growing demand.

Brandon also comments on the possible outcome of the Nuclear Fuel Working Group, currently under way in the US and the start of a new contracting cycle, events that may be significant for the industry. He also discusses Cameco's need for purchasing at least 10M lbs in the spot market and the prospects for the price of uranium going forward.

Munro also brings to us some news about Bannerman Resources, such as the listing of the company's shares on the US OTC market, which will be traded under the ticker BNNLF.

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In today's episode, Marcelo López spoke with Professor Gerry Thomas, a famous pharmacologist with a PhD in Pathology. She is a professor of nuclear pathology at Imperial College in London and an active researcher in the field of molecular pathology of cancer. Professor Thomas, who was at first against nuclear power but changed her mind as her research went on, debunks some myths and untruths that revolve around the subject.

The professor begins by discussing the reasons why people fear nuclear radiation too much, including psychological, historical and contextual aspects.

Then she talks about the health risks that different radiation doses can pose and how we expose ourselves to it.

Professor Gerry Thomas ponders how lifestyle and longevity have led to increased cancer occurrences and how these factors relate to the disease compared to radiation exposure.

The Chernobyl accident, in vogue now due to the production of an HBO series, is discussed in detail by the professor, who studied the subject thoroughly and conducted research on many different groups exposed to radiation - and how the radiation affected each group. She comments that the knowledge gained from studying the event led her to change her mind and to defend nuclear energy as a safe alternative.

Fire helicopter pilots, rescuers and local residents, for example, are groups that have been hit differently by radiation. Professor Gerry Thomas talks about the statistics, the occurrence or not of cancer associated with nuclear radiation and the severity of each case.

The latest nuclear incident happened in Fukushima, Japan, and it was addressed by the researcher who comments on deaths caused by the tsunami and the evacuation process, and discusses the effects of radiation on the population.

Professor Gerry Thomas draws a parallel between the two iconic accidents in terms of radiation level, contagiousness, how they both affected the population, and the immediate and long-term consequences.

What to do in case of a nuclear accident? Professor Thomas gives tips on how to behave in this situation and the tips will surprise many people. They certainly contradict, in part, popular knowledge, but they can make all the difference to the chances of survival and health preservation.

Access to: Oxford Martin Restatement 5: A restatement of the natural science evidence base concerning the health effects of low-level ionizing radiation

To know more about L2 Capital Partners, please check out our website!

The L2 Capital Podcast focuses on potential opportunities in the market, and brings to you industry leaders and intelligent conversation about their respective areas of expertise.

In today's episode, Marcelo López spoke with Adam Rozencwajg, founding partner of Goehring & Rozencwajg, an investment firm linked to natural resources such as mining, energy and agriculture. Prior to founding G&R’s, the partners were responsible for $ 5 billion of AUM at Chilton Investment Company.

Adam talks about the investment process and how they look for opportunities in the commodities sector, with a value investing approach, meaning that they look for commodities that currently have depressed prices at the same time that present a strong possibility of course reversion and price appreciation. 

Adam Rozencwajg analyses the relationship between the price of commodities as a whole and the price of the financial markets today and makes a retrospective of the past, showing that at times, when this relationship was that insane, great returns followed.

The first commodity that Adam talks about is oil. He highlights a historical difference between the per capita GDP and a country's oil consumption and the way the S curve behaves.

When asked about electric vehicles, Adam Rozencwajg explains his views in a detailed, comprehensive analysis. He talks about the effects that the adoption of electric vehicles brings to the energy market and the impact on oil consumption. He mentioned Tesla, which is the most famous brand of EVs at the moment, and makes a very funny comparison with the Concorde. 

Adam also talks about shale oil, the companies that operate in the industry, and the fundamentals he pays attention to in his analysis.

Rozencwajg talks about his experience investing in uranium and explains what made him come back again and invest in the commodity in 2018. His explanation covers the strong fundamentals he is seeing and the outcomes he expects for the sector.

Adam explains his confidence in copper, highlights the various elements associated with the demand and talks elaborately about why he is optimistic about it.

When asked about the gold market, Adam Rozencwajg talks about the relationship between the price of gold and oil as an evaluation measurement and the outlook for the yellow metal and silver, another precious metal.

Finally, Adam explains why he is optimistic about agricultural commodities, with a range of reasons, from climate change, crop yield to sunspot activity.

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The L2 Capital Podcast focuses on potential opportunities in the market, and brings to you industry leaders and intelligent conversation about their respective areas of expertise.

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In today's episode, Marcelo López spoke with Vimal Gor, head of Fixed Income and Defensive Strategies at Pendal Group, an independent Australian asset manager with about US$100 billion in AUM, half of which is managed in Australia and the other half in England through the subsidiary JO Hambro Capital Management. Pendal is a listed company under the ticker PDL, in Australia. Vimal and his team are responsible for managing US$20 billion, allocated across different asset classes.

Vimal Gor talks about a very important and unique subject, which he named “illusion of liquidity”. He started by explaining what he means by this and then describes the pockets of illiquidity in different markets. Vimal used a recent example to illustrate his point. He then explains this illiquidity issue considering the environment of strong monetary stimuli initiated during the 2007-2008 economic crisis.

Gor gives his insights into the flattening of the US yield curve, with an explanation of the dynamics that are responsible for its movements. He also gives his opinion about the possibility of a US recession and its consequences for the world.

Vimal also discusses the possibility that the US and Europe are following Japan's path (“Japanification of the world”), justifying his position based on demographic factors.

In addition, he brings his conclusions from the meeting he had with Bill Mitchell, proponent economist of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), and discusses the implications of the adoption of such theory. 

Vimal Gor also talks about the risks of a deceleration in global growth and ponders the importance of having gold and cryptocurrencies in the portfolio.

In regards to Australia, Vimal comments on decades of uninterrupted growth, the appreciation in real estate, the level of debt and the outlook for the country in the face of the global situation.

As for the US-China trade war, Gor sets out his view on the changes that may come from the dispute and the other geopolitical issues at stake.

Vimal discusses the problems Europe is going through, as well as the many risks present today, especially the solvency of the continent's banking institutions.

How to position yourself in the midst of so many risks and adversities? Vimal Gor points out what precautions to take, which assets he prefers, and which assets he is more cautious about.

To know more about L2 Capital Partners, please check out our website!

The L2 Capital Podcast focuses on potential opportunities in the market, and brings to you industry leaders and intelligent conversation about their respective areas of expertise.

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In today's episode, Marcelo López spoke with Brandon Munro, CEO of Bannerman Resources, a company focused on the exploration and development of uranium mines in Namibia.

Brandon was our L2 Capital Podcast episode 5 guest, where he talked about the dynamics of the uranium sector and his views about it.

In today’s special episode, the conversation focuses on the recently announced White House decision on a Section232 petition filed by two US uranium miners, Ur-Energy and Energy Fuels, in January 2018. The two companies asked for a 25% market share as the imports of uranium, in their view, possessed a threat to national security. 

In addition to being at the forefront of a uranium mining company, Munro is an experienced lawyer and has extensive relationships with everyone in the industry, which makes his opinion and vision about the implications of the decision very interesting and worthy of attention.

The Trump administration has decided not to impose quotas on the country's utilities, but has been sympathetic to US miners and has announced the creation of a Nuclear Fuel Working Group. Among other tasks, the Group will have to develop recommendations to support and expand the production of nuclear fuel in the country, and it should be presented within a period of 90 days.

Brandon assesses the implications of the decision for utilities in the US and abroad and also for mining companies, in a very comprehensive way. He speculates on the possible outcomes of the Working Group, as well as considering the protective and incentive measures that can be taken by President Trump from there.

Munro also talks about the impact that the decision may have on the price of uranium and provides his estimate for the price range of the commodity by the end of the year, based on the dynamics he observes in the market.

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The L2 Capital Podcast focuses on potential opportunities in the market, and brings to you industry leaders and intelligent conversation about their respective areas of expertise.

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In today's episode, Marcelo talked to Fred Hickey, editor of the famous publication The High Tech Strategis (HTS). The HTS is a monthly publication with more than 32 years of existence that brings to its readers an independent view on macroeconomic aspects, investments in the technology and precious metals sector.

Fred explains that he began following and writing about precious metals in the early 2000s, as he believed it was necessary to protect oneself against financial measures taken by central banks.

Fred Hickey brings his insight on technology companies and stresses that he is seeing a new bubble. In particular, he comments on the case of Huawei and the possibility of it being banned from doing business in the US.

In the macroeconomic arena, he discusses the possibility of a global economic downturn and recession, bringing various metrics, indicators and examples to support his views.

Fred talks about how the central bank's action has led to a poor allocation of investments worldwide and the consequences that this can bring. He also commented on the companies that burn cash extravagantly, but somehow are able to exist today.

Fred Hickey explains in details his arguments about the bubble he believes we are in now, the role that passive investment has had in shaping it, the stage of the cycle we are in, cryptocurrencies, the possibility of a crash and the reaction of central banks in the midst of all this.

Fred comments on his point of view regarding controversial electric car maker Tesla and its founder Elon Musk.

When asked about how to invest in the current scenario, Fred Hickey suggests allocations that he considers sensible, given all his views at the moment, going through the issue of currency devaluation, the impact on asset inflation and the cost of living.

When the subject is gold, Fred describes the recent movements in the price of the metal, which he believes is now in a new bull market. He also highlights how the participation of extremely leveraged traders affect the price of gold and he describes in detail what he characterizes as a gold transfer west to east.

In addition to talking about his expectations for gold prices in the future, Fred Hickey commented in detail on mining stocks he follows, such as Agnico Eagle Mines and Kirkland, to name a few, and talked about their operations, characteristics and other investment-related metrics that are relevant.

Fred closed his remarks talking about his views on the risks that people are not taking into account, especially expectations regarding the monetary policy of the Fed.

In today's episode, Marcelo spoke with Bill Sheriff, chairman of enCore Energy Corp., a uranium exploration company with mining assets exclusively in the USA.

Sheriff, who has worked as a geologist, a broker and a market maker, begins by talking about the history of Energy Metals, a company he founded with a market capitalization of US$1 million and sold a few years later for US$1.5 billion.

Bill Sheriff talks about the importance of having a properly qualified team at the helm of a uranium company, with technical expertise in the entire nuclear fuel cycle and presents the credentials of the enCore team.

Sheriff highlights the advantages of operating in the US, mainly in a historical context of the country as a consumer and producer of the raw material for the generation of nuclear energy.

When asked by Marcelo López about the expectations regarding the petition filed by his competitors under section 232, requesting market reserve for local uranium producers, Bill Sheriff comments on his vision and that of the company, how this would affect enCore as well as its expectation around the commodity price.

Following on, Sheriff comments on current market conditions, what he expects in terms of new projects worldwide, about his perception of market participants' sentiment and compares the current scenario to the one observed in 2004- 2007, along with a personal projection for the price of uranium in the coming years.

Bill Sheriff explains what the SWU is and what the role of this unit of measurement in the uranium universe represents, together with its relevance to industry analysis.

Asked about the mining restrictions on the outskirts of the Grand Canyon, Sheriff details what the current situation is, what may change in the near future, what impact it has on enCore operations and what they have to do with section 232.

Bill still talks about the latest technological innovations and the main risks he sees in the industry.

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The L2 Capital Podcast focuses on potential opportunities in the market, and brings to you industry leaders and intelligent conversation about their respective areas of expertise.

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In today's episode, Marcelo spoke with Jeffrey Snider, Head of Global Investment Research at Alhambra Investments, a Florida-based company that provides portfolio management services to institutions with a focus on risk management.

Jeffrey Snider is one of the few people to openly and consistently talk about the Eurodollar System and he spoke to Marcelo extensively about the subject in this episode.

Jeff begins by explaining exactly what the Eurodollar system is. It originated through US currency deposits outside the US and outside the US’s regulation, but evolved to become a large, interconnected global network with an enormous volume of transactions. It has been key to financial dynamics for some decades now.

Asked about how the system really works, Jeffrey Snider sets an example to clarify the mechanics behind it and the effects on the economy and the financial markets in general, noting that the opacity of the system justifies the “shadow currency” nickname.

Speaking about the financial crisis of 2007-2008, Snider brings a surprising perspective about what happened. In addition to pondering the share of subprime mortgages in the context of the crisis, he lists some of the various signs that point to Eurodollar as the factor that exacerbated the problem and led to the financial dimensions it got to.

Still about the crisis, Jeff comments on the Fed's reaction and the adoption of quantitative easing (QE), drawing an elaborate and interesting explanation on the state of the world's monetary system and the ability of central banks to deal with the situation.

To conclude, Jeffrey Snider describes China's role and exposure to the Eurodollar market and provides insight into how to position oneself in regards to our own investments, in order to profit from the possible outcomes that he mentioned.

To know more about L2 Capital Partners, please check out our website!

The L2 Capital Podcast focuses on potential opportunities in the market, and brings to you industry leaders and intelligent conversation about their respective areas of expertise.

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In this special episode Marcelo López shares his insights on the uranium investment thesis.

It has been recorded in Portuguese.

Please share it with your Portuguese-speaking friends.

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No episódio especial de hoje, invertemos os papéis. Marcelo López ocupou o lugar de convidado num bate-papo com Rafael Siqueira sobre a oportunidade de investimento em urânio.

Quer entender por que a L2 Capital acredita tanto na tese de investimento em urânio? Compartilhamos com você de forma clara e abrangente as conclusões das análises dessa oportunidade que está fora do radar dos investidores.

Marcelo conta sobre sua trajetória no mercado financeiro, sua experiência como hedge fund manager em Londres, como se deparou com essa tese e o que o motivou a ir mais a fundo para entender as peculiaridades do setor.

Após viajar por diversos países, dedicar muito tempo e recursos, e conversar com todos os players do setor, como executivos de mineradoras, de usinas nucleares (utilities) e de enriquecedores, geólogos e analistas, Marcelo identificou no urânio uma oportunidade que ele considera ímpar.

Nesse podcast, Marcelo responde às principais perguntas dos investidores.

Por que os preços estão tão baixos e como eles chegaram lá? Marcelo explica detalhadamente como uma confluência de fatores contribuiu para a queda da commodity.

O que mudou nesses fatores desde então?

Como é a dinâmica do setor, os aspectos da demanda, da oferta e do preço?

No que devemos prestar atenção ao analisar o setor?

O que está puxando a demanda?

Como a oferta está reagindo ao cenário?

Qual o preço de equilíbrio?

Como foi o último bull market e quais fatores o impulsionaram?

O que o atual bull market tem de diferente do último?

O que esperar daqui para frente?

Qual o horizonte para consolidação da tese?

Quais são os catalisadores?

O que é a petição da Section 232 e qual o impacto dela para o mercado e para os investidores?

Como se posicionar para lucrar com a correção dos preços?

Tudo isso trazido a você de forma direta e informativa.

 To know more about L2 Capital Partners, please check out our website!The L2 Capital Podcast focuses on potential opportunities in the market, and brings to you industry leaders and intelligent conversation about their respective areas of expertise.Follow us on social media:

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