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In today's episode, Marcelo Lopez spoke with Alex Molyneux, a senior executive and investor in natural resources, who today acts as an advisor to an investment fund solely focused on capturing opportunities in the uranium market.

Having already held various executive positions in companies in the sector, as he himself explains, he is able to have a deeper technical understanding of uranium particularities, such as operational issues, production, licensing and jurisdiction, which gives him a different approach when investing.

Alex Molyneux curriculum gives him credibility to talk about uranium. After a decade working as a specialist mining investment banker at large banks in locations such as Melbourne, Beijing, London and Hong Kong, he took up executive positions in publicly traded mining companies, founded a uranium mining company, Azarga Uranium, and held the position of CEO of Paladin Energy during its restructuring phase.

Asked about what he considers important in the pursuit of investment objectives in the sector, Alex talked about what aspects he prioritizes in the analysis and comments on what his expectations for the price of uranium are.

Marcelo asks about the recurring assertion that excess inventory is putting pressure on the commodity and it is responsible for the current low price. Alex Molyneux draws up a detailed explanation of different types of inventory, such as those held strategically by governments and those held by utilities. He also talks about the trends he observes and the perspectives he has for each type of inventory, as well as the impact of this on the market.

Alex also comments on the long-term contract maturities and the uncovered demand for nuclear power generators with the insight of someone who was the main executive of the world's second largest pure-play uranium company.

When questioned as to why utilities are not taking advantage of low prices to buy more uranium, Alex clarifies how they deal with price and what actually motivates them to enter into contracts. He draws a parallel to the latest bull market and lists the factors that are influencing the current scenario.

Alex Molyneux then gives his insight into the relevance of the Separative Work Units (SWUs) and what the price and volume dynamics of the spot and long-term market should look like from now on.

What price range is required for the start up or ramp up of production projects? How long will it take to reactivate the McArthur River mine? Will there be an overshooting in the price? Is it possible to cover the production deficit in the coming years? Alex gave his opinion about all of this.

When it came to KazAtomProm, Alex gave his point of view on the company’s production costs, capex, and the impact the exchange rate has on the company's decisions. He also talked about the role KazAtomProm has as an asset to compose a uranium-focused portfolio.

Finally, Molyneux, who has worked as an investment banker focusing on mining, discusses the challenges that uranium producers could encounter if they need to obtain funding to bring projects online.

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The L2 Capital Podcast focuses on potential opportunities in the market, and brings to you industry leaders and intelligent conversation about their respective areas of expertise.

In today's episode, Marcelo Lopez spoke with Simon Mikhailovich, co-founder and manager of the Tocqueville Bullion Reserve, which he describes as a global solution for those who wish to have gold and make use of a complete infrastructure with fiduciary responsibility and alignment of interests, allowing the purchase directly from the refiners.

At the beginning of the conversation, Simon draws a distinction between having gold as a form of investment and having it as a safe haven. For both cases, he highlights how to position and the incredible features of the yellow metal.

Simon and Marcelo conduct an interesting discussion of gold price performance since the peak in 2011, and ponder the effects of asset inflation, central bank intervention, currencies, confidence and how the “insurance policy” works.

Simon Mikhailovich makes a detailed analysis of the differences between the sentiment and behavior of Americans, Russians and Chinese in relation to the acquisition of gold, with a historical and political context for each.

Asked if gold is the only way to protect oneself and where to keep it, Simon elaborates with a thorough explanation of the weaknesses of the global financial system, compares gold to other real assets and underlines what makes it unique when it comes to protection and practicality.

After Marcelo brings some recent examples of consolidation activities among gold mining companies, Simon Mikhailovich explains how the prices, the expectation and the dynamics of gold extraction are the catalysts for the mergers and acquisitions that are happening in the sector, besides commenting on his perspective on this issue.

Simon, who has extensive experience as a derivatives investor, having made money on the way up and also on the way down in the last cycle, argues that derivative contracts represent a major risk to the system and discusses his macroeconomic outlook, including global indebtedness, asset pricing and possible consequences for the markets.

Specifically on the US government borrowing and central bank actions, Mikhailovich assesses the current situation, the implications of the policies adopted, underscores the importance of the issue of trust and compares the current scenario with the latest financial crises.

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The L2 Capital Podcast focuses on potential opportunities in the market, and brings to you industry leaders and intelligent conversation about their respective areas of expertise.

In today's episode, Marcelo López talked to Marc Faber, editor and publisher of the famous report Gloom Boom & Doom and a contrarian investor known for bold investment decisions in the past.

Marcelo begins the conversation by asking about the behaviour of markets from December 2018 to the present. Marc Faber attributes the December declines and reaction seen in 2019 to a number of factors, including the Fed’s capitulation, Modern Monetary Theory and the flow of investor’s capital. He also brings his perspective to the stock market in 2019 and comments on the possibility of a crash.

Following on, Marc discusses the monetary policy of the Fed and other central banks, about their recent decisions, asset bubble, Quantitative Easing (QE) and his expectation regarding the next steps that will be taken by the American central bank. He also talks about the economy in some European economies, in the US, in Japan and in China.

Marc Faber comments on the possibility of a recession in the US and China, for which he makes an interesting sector analysis, highlighting sectors that may suffer great contraction and others that may even benefit by an expansion.

Marc then reflects on the impacts of monetary expansionism on the real economy, on the effectiveness of this kind of policy as a growth stimulus and he cites the examples of Japan and Europe.

Faber, who has almost 50 years of investment experience, talks about negative interest rates and gives his opinion on why investors would look for assets with this so unusual feature.

When questioned about where to find yield at the moment, Marc Faber talks about the countries he follows in Asia, especially Vietnam. As for his expectation on the foreign exchange market, he mentions some emerging currencies and what he thinks about how the US dollar should behave in the long run.

When it came to America versus Emerging Markets stock market, Faber offers his insights into how the relative pricing between them is at the moment and what he considers the best strategy to profit from this difference.

Regarding commodities, Marc stated specific examples of how some types may perform according to the global economic environment and also gave his assessment as to the current pricing of the asset class as a whole.

Specifically on gold, Faber talks about his views on the metal as a form of investment, especially in the current context of high liquidity injected by central banks.

Finally, Marc highlighted those he believes are the main risks to the financial markets and asset prices, such as the issue of political polarization and China's slowdown.

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The L2 Capital Podcast focuses on potential opportunities in the market, and brings to you industry leaders and intelligent conversation about their respective areas of expertise.

In today's episode, Marcelo Lopez spoke with Alasdair Macleod, who besides being a very experienced investor, is the Head of Research at Goldmoney.

Alasdair talks about Goldmoney acting as custodian for clients around the world who wish to store precious metals outside the banking system and also the interesting services it provides to its investors.

When questioned about the recent market performance, marked by pronounced declines in late 2018 and a bullish reaction in January 2019, Macleod explains these events and establishes a connection between decisions made by the Fed, the stage of the credit cycle and economic protectionism, in addition to giving his vision of what to expect for this year.

He also draws a distinction between the credit cycle and the business cycle and highlights the factors that characterize the current cycle and uses recent data to give an opinion on the stage we are in today.

Asked what the direction of central bank interest rates should be in the face of current circumstances, Macleod gives his prognosis for rates, as well as its consequences for the economy and markets.

He then discusses inflation measured by governments around the world and points to the discrepancy between what is seen in practice and what is recorded by official price indexes. 

When asked by Marcelo about what can be expected of the performance of gold in the scenario that is being drawn, Alasdair highlights the metal's ability to preserve the purchasing power of those who have it in situations of currency devaluation and cites historical examples to prove his point.

Macleod then shares his view on investments in gold stocks as well as ETFs and how they can react in scenarios of global deceleration and appreciation of the commodity.

He reveals his expectation for Fed decisions from now on and draws a parallel between the crisis of 1929 and today, highlighting the current unprecedented factors such as high public debt and deficits and dependence on foreign borrowers. Besides that, Alasdair conjectures the impacts of these potential decisions to the dynamics of interest rates.

Alasdair also brings a positioning of the electorate on the political spectrum. About Brexit, he meticulously comments about the stage of the process and the impacts that could be felt in the markets.

Finally, responding to a request for guidance on how to position the portfolio to deal with the events he believes are on the way, Macleod talks about analogous situations of the past, specifically about Germany in the 1920s. 

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The L2 Capital Podcast focuses on potential opportunities in the market, and brings to you industry leaders and intelligent conversation about their respective areas of expertise.

In this episode, Marcelo Lopez spoke with Brandon Munro, CEO of Bannerman Resources Limited, a company listed on the Australian Stock Exchange, ASX, focused on the exploration and development of uranium mines.

Munro begins by telling a little about the company's history, as well as about his trajectory within the company, from the acquisition of the Etango Project in Namibia, various studies and licenses and the way the company handled the accident at Fukushima nuclear power plant in 2011.

Asked by Marcelo about the country where the company's activities are concentrated, Brandon explains with the knowledge of those who had lived there for several years, mentioning that Namibia contradicts the stereotype that the West has about the African continent. He highlights the characteristics that differentiate Namibia from other countries, emphasizing the quality of its road and port infrastructure, its political stability and the inheritance of German colonization.

Next, Munro provides a detailed explanation of the recent dynamics of uranium spot prices in the face of the trajectory to the current US$30/lb, highlighting events that have modified the demand, such as the emergence of specialized investment vehicles in the acquisition of the commodity . He also shows how he sees price behavior going forward, the levels that may be decisive for the reaction of market participants, and their impact on industry action.

Munro then shares a thorough analysis of how long-term contracts have always dominated the scene, while the spot was negligible and served only as a balancing mechanism. According to him, the Fukushima incident created a huge distortion in the market, profoundly altering the dynamics of the contracts. Brandon points out that we are in an unprecedented situation for this industry, which could significantly boost the bull market of the commodity.

Asked about the latest bull market, Brandon points to how prices rose from about US$20/lb to US$136/lb very rapidly and talks about the similarities with the 1970s. He emphasizes that current prices are unsustainable in view of production costs and that the only way out would be a huge increase in prices, possibly to multiples of current levels. He bases his argument with an estimate for the minimum price that would bring the market back to equilibrium.

Munro brings some of his vision about sentiment in relation to the commodity, going from the recent lack of interest from investors and getting to a situation in which more and more attention is given to the sector. He still explains and cites examples of why the stock prices did not follow the commodity price over the last few months.

Asked about Section 232, Brandon outlines different scenarios of what Trump's response to the request might be, on the grounds of strategic and national security point of view. He also mentions what he believes will be the implications for the companies in the uranium sector.

Munro also talks about his perspective on pricing scenarios and the performance of the two largest companies in the industry, KazAtomProm and Cameco. Regarding the latter, he still discusses the impacts of Cameco’s decision to put its largest mine in care & maintenance and to buy uranium on the spot market to honor its contracts, instead of producing.

Brandon then gives a real lesson on how uranium stocks work, highlighting the operational characteristics of each type, levels, potential for enrichment and its impacts on the market and price volatility.

Munro also talks about what the stock investor should look for when looking for uranium-related assets. He points out that there are few companies that are accessible in the industry and that many have specific risks, not related to the commodity itself, but to jurisdiction, for example.

Brandon concludes by commenting on the feeling about uranium and atomic energy as an alternative energy, comparing i

 In this episode, Marcelo talks to Martin North, from Digital Finance Analytics (DFA). DFA is a boutique research, analysis and consulting firm providing advisory services to clients in Australia and beyond.  

Martin starts by explaining how his company, DFA, conducts the research and consulting work. DFA follows a philosophy of its own and looks at different perspectives, with a wealth of detail.

Following on, North talks about the downward trajectory of real estate prices in Australia in 2018, which he had already anticipated, after several years of expressive appreciation. He explains why prices have risen so robustly over the last few decades and shares his point of view for the near future.

Asked about credit expansion and the granting of real estate loans, Martin presents recent numbers and market trends and highlights the strong influence of investors, including foreigners, in this sector. He further clarifies how rising property prices have led to a change in household indebtedness and composition of the budget - and the consequences for the economy as a whole.

Martin, when asked about the report published by the Banking Royal Commission on February 4, highlights the main points of the document and analyzes the problems with the banking system and the country's indebtedness and how they constitute a potential problem for the national economy. He also compares the situation in Australia with the 2007-2008 Global Financial Crisis in the US.

Marcelo comments on the fact that a significant portion of households have negative equity and asks about the upcoming decisions of the Australian central bank, the Royal Bank of Australia, regarding interest rates and the impacts of this for the real estate sector. Martin comments on what he thinks will be the decision of the monetary authority in the face of the economic situation and still points particularities of different regions of the country and how they can be determining factors in the way that real estate prices will behave.

An important and interesting risk is questioned by Marcelo regarding the quality and construction standards adopted in the country and Martin, besides explaining the reason for this risk, reiterates his point of view that many properties may turn into chanty towns in the future and highlights the turn from excess demand to excess supply.

Are there more risks that people are not paying attention to? Martin North highlights Australia's strong link with China, rising funding costs, and political risk: elections in the country can lead to the termination of negative gearing. In addition to these, North believes there are many other risks that lead him to believe that the downside far outweighs the upside.

Finally, Martin explains why Australia is heading for a complicated period for the next 5 years, and why 2019 will probably be what 2006 was for the United States in relation to the financial crisis.

In this episode, Marcelo talks to Russell Napier, co-founder of the ERIC (Electronic Research Interchange) and creator of the course "A Practical History of Financial Markets". He was also considered the No. 1 strategist in the 1990s and wrote the very famous book "Anatomy of the Bear."

After talking about ERIC, which is a website for institutional investors to buy independent market research, Russell rationalizes about his recent Financial Times article "Cracks are opening in the global monetary system" which has caused controversy by stating that the current economic situation is not the end of a cycle, but something much greater.

When Marcelo asks what will happen going forward, Russsell Napier talks about the global monetary system and how emerging markets should pay attention to the relationship between China and the United States, not only with regard to the trade dispute but also with regard to the exchange rate and the impact that this could have on the world.

During the conversation, he also points out his views on transactions outside the US dollar system. According to him, this issue is much more related to geopolitics than economics. So the conversation goes on to another subject: deflation. Russell believes that the world is moving towards deflation and explains what needs to happen to prevent it from occurring, fearing that we have to face a worse situation than the one in 2008.

When asked about valuations of financial assets, Russell Napier talks about what happened from 2014 to today: assets in the United States have risen while those in the rest of the world have fallen.

He also believes we are at the beginning of a bear market and draws attention to the changing supply and demand dynamics of US government bonds.

So what are the risks to emerging markets? The problem, according to Russell, is that there are emerging markets with vulnerable economies. He also explains how geopolitical changes can be negative for many countries.

Other issues discussed in the podcast are Japanese assets and how China-US relations pose the greatest risk to markets. Napier also draws a parallel between Risk Parity, popularized by Ray Dalio and Bridgewater, and Portfolio Insurance.

While not optimistic about the setting, Russell Napier ends the conversation by suggesting some investment to our listeners.

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The L2 Capital Podcast focuses on potential opportunities in the market, and brings to you industry leaders and intelligent conversation about their respective areas of expertise.

In this episode, Marcelo speaks to the famous editor and founder of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, Jim Grant, who has been writing in this publication focused in the Capital Market since 1983 and has also written books, such as The Forgotten Depression.

The conversation starts on the strong numbers coming from the Unites States: unemployment rates, the fiscal stimulus, and also the strong GDP, for instance. Questioned about the prospects on what is probably going to happen in 2019, Jim Grant says he believes the essential narrative today is about the growth of interest rates and its consequences. He talks about what the current FED policies and what they have wrought: great distortions and the pricing of assets.

Looking back on what the FED did in the years of 2007 to 2009, Jim Grant highlights the need to do its best to raise the interest federal fund rates. However, he believes that the USA won't follow Japan's steps. Jim also talks about the anomalous condition in the world of finance: it has rising equity values and very low interest rates. Another issue that he explains is the asset price inflation, considering the fact that a lot of the dollars of federal reserve has been locked up.

Does he see a recession going forward? What would be the impact for emerging markets? Jim Grant explains why there's a tendency for the contraction of credit. After presenting some concerning information, he admits there's more risk than happiness in financial matters - even though he doesn't see a recession coming. Jim Grant also says where we can find yield at the moment, and gives a very specific example that clarifies a lot. 

After that, Jim explains about gold and what would make it go up: the loss of confidence in the institution of managed currencies and the federal reserves. He presents some ways of looking at gold market and points out an implicit suggestion for investors. After teaching us all about how things are not as they seem, Jim also talks about uranium and how 2019 will be the year for uranium investors and brings an opportunity he sees in the markets right now based on a question about the risks that we have right now. 

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The L2 Capital Podcast focuses on potential opportunities in the market, and brings to you industry leaders and intelligent conversation about their respective areas of expertise.

In this first episode, Marcelo had the pleasure to talk to legendary investor Rick Rule, CEO at Sprott, Canadian company that works as a global investment and asset management focused in natural resources and precious metals.

The first discussion with Rick Rule is about the uranium bull market, after a long period of bear market, when the metal was being sold for half the price of its production cost. The investor describes the rising process of the uranium rise in the market, highlighting the astonishing numbers that show it, until the disaster in Fukushima, which decreased the prices and the booming market, but also created the situation that led to the bull market in uranium market today. Rick Rule compares the situation in the present with the one we had 15 years ago, and answers a question about the mining stocks that didn't go up as the uranium.

About the future, Rick Rule analyses how the USA is dealing with the fact that they produce less than 3% of its uranium demand, and how China and Russia are causing impact in the space. According to him, the competition will take place between those countries and also Korea and Taiwan. Then, the investor makes prediction of what may happen in the future, including the competition for African assets.

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