I quote from something a dear friend sent me. “In Ernest Hemingway’s famous novel, The Sun Also Rises, a character is asked how he went bankrupt. “In two ways,” he answers. “Gradually and then suddenly.”
A famous sentence, one that aptly describes how businesses go down. We get fixated on the sudden events that occur at the end of the trajectory—banks calling in their loans, creditors going to court, unpaid salaries, and the like. It all feels dramatic and sudden, and we look for answers in the here and now.
But those answers can only be found way back.
Businesses are not the only things that go wrong following this gradually-then-suddenly trajectory. Many other human endeavours follow the same path. There is much anxiety and hand-wringing when we suffer an avoidable medical event, for example, but our lifestyle choices over many years prior often go unremarked.
When human constructs like bridges or dams fail, or cities are flooded, it is not just because of sudden and unusual rain events. There is a gradual negligence afoot—years and years of wear and tear, maintenance failures, or unattended corrosion.
Because we looked away from that work, we are forced to look on in horror when the final collapse happens.” End of quote
In Systems Theory we speak about the Causal and Compensating Loops. When you start an initiative, no matter what and no matter how well intentioned it may be, a process that works to neutralize it also starts. Usually, it goes undetected until it gains sufficient momentum to reverse the initiative that had been started. These are the Causal and Compensating Loops. Therefore, if you want any initiative to succeed you must keep an eye open for the Compensating Loop and act early to deal with it. Acting early means that what you need to do will be easier and less painful and so more likely to succeed. All change is painful. But if you detect the need to change early and act quickly, you can minimize the pain and give the initiative you started, a chance to succeed.
Early in my consulting career in 1983/4, I was part of a consultant group hired to design and conduct an Orientation Workshop for a large engineering manufacturing company in South India which had a strong traditional Tamil Brahmin culture with an all-male population. Thanks to the inception of a powerful lady promoter director into their Board, they decided to hire women engineers to address the gender imbalance. They hired fifty young women engineers from the premier engineering colleges in India, the IITs and RECs. Mercifully someone had the idea that before letting these young, highly energetic, and powerful women into the all-male organization, it may be a good idea to help the women understand the challenges that they were likely to face in working with older male colleagues. We did a 5-day residential program in Whitefield, Bangalore. The program went off very well and all seemed right with the world. Five years later, on a hunch, I decided to check what had happened to these women. To my horror, I discovered that 90% of them had left the company. That is when the theory of Causal and Compensating Loops hit home to me most vividly. The danger of gradual change which remains undetected until it is too late.
That’s also the theory of Seneca’s Cliff… it takes a long time to get to the top of the cliff and then comes the sudden drop to destruction. The problem is that after a certain point is crossed, reversal is almost impossible and going off the top is inevitable. That’s where I fear we have reached, in several countries that I am familiar with and globally.
