The world is being rocked by COVID-19, the disease caused by
a new type of coronavirus that emerged in late 2019 (SARS-CoV-2). The situation
is concerning. A lot of people are sick. Many are hospitalized. Too many have
died.
Nearly all of us are social distancing for at least a few
weeks to slow the spread of the virus.
Routines are disrupted. Businesses are closed. Millions of people have been laid off, furloughed, or are finding ways to work from home. Kids are finishing their school year in virtual classrooms.
There’s severe strain on healthcare workers and healthcare systems.
No one knows for certain when we will get back to normal, or
what “normal” will look like once the initial COVID-19 crisis is more
controlled.
If you only pay attention to media coverage of the COVID-19
pandemic, however, you might develop a biased or incomplete outlook of this
situation. In fact, there is actually some positive information from trusted,
scientific sources that’s worth paying attention to.
If you’re curious (like me) about the objective data,
keeping a close eye on this type of information may help alleviate some of the
anxieties you may be feeling – and even help you prepare for life after the
initial COVID-19 crisis and social restrictions are lifted.
Article ShortcutsWhat is the situation, exactly?What are the known health risks of COVID-19?Risk of ExposureKey Data Points to Watch IncidenceR0 (RNaught)MorbidityMortalityRecoveryWhat can you do?We’re here for you.
What is the situation, exactly?
Based on data available as of March 30, over 700,000 COVID-19 infections have been confirmed and over 35,000 deaths have been reported worldwide.
In the United States, at least 140,000 people have tested
positive for COVID-19, and over 2,000 people have died from it.
Those numbers are staggering, and they’re expected to grow
as more widespread testing becomes available throughout the initial wave of the
virus.
There’s another way to look at the situation though: Nearly
7 billion people aren’t infected. As
many as 322 million people in the United States don’t have COVID-19.
Based on current data, most people who contract COVID-19 will recover from it. The spread of infection will slow down.
The reality is, over a million Americans have been tested for COVID-19 and just under 16 percent of them tested positive. That means roughly 85 percent of those people who feel sick enough to get a test do not have COVID-19.
What are the known health risks of COVID-19?
The short answer is that there’s not enough hard data right
now to know each individuals’ health risk from COVID-19.
The other short answer is the risk of serious morbidity and
mortality is low, especially if you’re healthy.
If we look at the current situation through the
epidemiological lens and based on reports from the most trusted sources, such
as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), World Health
Organization (WHO), and other prominent medical researchers, we get a more
accurate understanding of absolute risk than you may get from other sources.
Risk of Exposure
Based on current CDC situation summaries, the risk of being exposed to the SARS-CoV-2 virus is still low for most Americans.