Long Story Short

The midterm elections are on November 3, and the headlines connecting them to the stock market are about to get louder. Adam Newman and Andy Pratt look at what history shows, starting with a pattern Adam describes as a Jekyll-and-Hyde dynamic. Pullbacks in midterm years have averaged around 17.5% to 18%, compared with 11% to 13% in other years, yet the fourth quarter of a midterm year has been the strongest of the presidential cycle, with an average gain of about 6.5% to 7%. Adam also offers something voters of every party can root for as investors, since years with a split Congress have averaged a 17% annual return going back to World War II.

Andy sees something unusual in this year's market, which he calls an invisible correction. The market's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has fallen from about 23 to roughly 18.5, a drop of about 20%, while stock prices kept rising on earnings growth of 25% or more. Even with stocks near all-time highs, the market hasn't been this cheap since 2022, and Andy explains why lower valuations have historically been associated with stronger returns down the road.

⏱️ Timestamps: 

• (00:00) Football weekends and fewer political ads

• (02:20) What midterm elections mean for portfolios

• (04:13) Why midterm years tend to be strong for stocks

• (05:40) The midterm year's Jekyll and Hyde pattern

• (07:12) Fourth-quarter returns across the presidential cycle

• (08:49) Why seasonal patterns shouldn't drive decisions

• (10:00) Keeping politics out of your portfolio

• (10:42) A reason investors of every party can root for a split Congress

• (12:19) The best and worst split-Congress years

• (14:07) Elections as one input among many

• (15:14) A bear market in valuations

• (17:11) When earnings grow faster than prices

• (20:28) What lower valuations have meant for future returns

• (21:04) Podcast disclosures

Resources:

Long Story Short website | burneywealth.com/podcast

Follow Burney Wealth Management on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/company/burneywealthmanagement 

Follow Adam Newman on Linkedin | https://www.linkedin.com/in/adam-newman-cfa-cfp%C2%AE-48853916/ 

Follow Andy Pratt on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/in/andyjpratt/ 

#MidtermElections #StockMarket #Investing #FinancialPlanning #WealthManagement

The Burney Company is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Burney Wealth Management is a division of the Burney Company. Registration with the SEC or any state securities authority does not imply that Burney Company or any of its principals or employees possess a particular level of skill or training in the investment advisory business or any other business. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended as personalized investment advice, legal advice, tax advice, or a recommendation.

October 12 marked four years since the 2022 bear market bottomed, and the market has climbed 118% since that low. Andy Pratt and Adam Newman look at how this run compares with past bull markets, which have averaged a 192% gain before the next bear market, and why the next pullback is more likely to be an ordinary 20% to 25% decline than a crash. Andy also explains why stocks would be 10% to 15% higher today if valuations had held steady, since earnings have grown faster than prices as interest rates climbed.

Bonds have had a much rougher stretch, with the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index returning about negative 0.5% a year over the past five years. Adam and Andy explain why higher yields make bonds more attractive going forward, with short- and intermediate-term bonds now yielding around 5%, and how that changes the math in retirement projections built around a 5% to 6% return and 3% inflation.

⏱️ Timestamps: 

• (00:00) A Commanders clock-management mishap

• (03:00) The bull market turns four

• (04:00) Up 118% and still an ordinary bull market

• (05:00) Looking back at 2022 and the Magnificent Seven

• (06:00) How bull markets differ in size and length

• (07:00) How bull markets usually end

• (08:00) Why the next drop tends to come from an unexpected risk

• (09:00) Climbing a wall of worry

• (10:00) The stock market as the wisdom of the crowd

• (12:00) Bonds after a tough five years

• (14:00) Why higher yields mean better bond returns ahead

• (17:00) What higher yields mean for retirement planning

• (19:00) Why you don't need junk bonds for yield

• (22:02) Podcast disclosures

Resources:

Long Story Short website | burneywealth.com/podcast

Follow Burney Wealth Management on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/company/burneywealthmanagement 

Follow Adam Newman on Linkedin | https://www.linkedin.com/in/adam-newman-cfa-cfp%C2%AE-48853916/ 

Follow Andy Pratt on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/in/andyjpratt/ 

#BullMarket #StockMarket #BondMarket #RetirementPlanning #WealthManagement

The Burney Company is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Burney Wealth Management is a division of the Burney Company. Registration with the SEC or any state securities authority does not imply that Burney Company or any of its principals or employees possess a particular level of skill or training in the investment advisory business or any other business. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended as personalized investment advice, legal advice, tax advice, or a recommendation.

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates in September for the first time since 2023, and the 10-year Treasury yield has since climbed to its highest level since 2002. Andy Pratt sits down with Alex Shen, Burney's Director of Research, to make sense of it. Alex explains why the short-term rates the Fed sets and the long-term rates the market sets can move so differently, and Andy covers why bonds lose value when rates rise and how those lower prices create higher yields for new buyers.

Alex, a quant by training, also explains why growth stocks in areas like AI and biotech tend to feel rising rates more than mature companies like Coca-Cola and Costco. She uses parenting to describe how the Fed looks for a balance between too loose and too strict, and why a higher rate isn't automatically bad for the economy. For investors worried about where rates go next, Alex suggests putting that energy into a plan that holds up across different scenarios.

⏱️ Timestamps: 

• (00:00) Welcome to Episode 66 with Alex Shen, Burney's Director of Research

• (02:30) What an interest rate is

• (03:30) Short-term rates versus long-term rates

• (06:00) What drives long-term rates

• (10:30) How higher rates show up in everyday life

• (13:00) Why bond prices fall when rates rise

• (14:45) The 100-year bond story

• (17:00) How interest rates affect stock prices

• (20:00) Coca-Cola, Costco, and long-duration growth stocks

• (23:45) Restrictive versus accommodative rates, explained through parenting

• (27:00) The Taylor rule and the Fed's recent hike

• (29:30) Alex's advice for anyone worried about rates

• (33:12) Podcast disclosures

Resources:

Long Story Short website | burneywealth.com/podcast

Follow Burney Wealth Management on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/company/burneywealthmanagement 

Follow Adam Newman on Linkedin | https://www.linkedin.com/in/adam-newman-cfa-cfp%C2%AE-48853916/ 

Follow Andy Pratt on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/in/andyjpratt/ 

Follow Alex Shen on LinkedIn | ​​https://www.linkedin.com/in/alexshen7/ 

Atlanta Fed Taylor Rule Utility | https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/taylor-rule

#InterestRates #FederalReserve #BondInvesting #FinancialPlanning #InvestmentStrategy

The Burney Company is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Burney Wealth Management is a division of the Burney Company. Registration with the SEC or any state securities authority does not imply that Burney Company or any of its principals or employees possess a particular level of skill or training in the investment advisory business or any other business. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended as personalized investment advice, legal advice, tax advice, or a recommendation.

A handful of Burney clients have asked Adam Newman and Andy Pratt about a Roth conversion idea that's been marketed heavily to affluent investors lately. The hosts call it the J-curve Roth conversion strategy. You fund a private investment through a traditional individual retirement account (IRA), wait for the early markdown that private funds tend to show, and convert to a Roth IRA while the value sits low. Adam isn't convinced that markdown ever reverses, since it reflects a discount for illiquidity and risk, and higher fees and possible IRS scrutiny can eat into whatever the conversion saves. Andy prefers simpler moves, like holding tax-efficient exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in taxable accounts and saving the Roth IRA for the assets with the highest expected growth.

Adam and Andy also react to the Federal Reserve's recent quarter-point rate hike. They look back at how the S&P 500 has behaved in the year after the Fed starts raising rates, explain why the rate itself tends to follow economic conditions, and share what they plan to watch as markets head into the fourth quarter of 2026.

⏱️ Timestamps: 

• (00:00) Welcome to Episode 65

• (00:34) The most dangerous phrase in investing and financial planning

• (04:00) Real estate write-offs, 10 to 15 years later

• (05:17) Opportunity cost and the next best use of your money

• (06:15) Why the lowest possible tax bill can leave money on the table

• (07:17) The tax idea du jour and the J-curve Roth conversion strategy

• (09:43) How the strategy works inside an IRA

• (11:29) What the early markdown tells you about risk

• (13:27) Simple asset location moves across taxable, traditional, and Roth accounts

• (14:46) Fees and an easier way to time a Roth conversion

• (16:06) IRS scrutiny and the conservation easement example

• (18:00) The Fed raises interest rates

• (19:45) What rate hikes have meant for stocks, and signals versus drivers

• (24:54) Podcast disclosures

Resources:

Long Story Short website | burneywealth.com/podcast

Follow Burney Wealth Management on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/company/burneywealthmanagement 

Follow Adam Newman on Linkedin | https://www.linkedin.com/in/adam-newman-cfa-cfp%C2%AE-48853916/ 

Follow Andy Pratt on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/in/andyjpratt/ 

#TaxPlanning #RothConversion #RetirementPlanning #FederalReserve #WealthManagement

The Burney Company is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Burney Wealth Management is a division of the Burney Company. Registration with the SEC or any state securities authority does not imply that Burney Company or any of its principals or employees possess a particular level of skill or training in the investment advisory business or any other business. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended as personalized investment advice, legal advice, tax advice, or a recommendation.

Andy opens this episode by making Adam count up the letters in his own name against the string of credentials that follow it, then they get into what CEPA®, Adam's newest designation, trains him to do for a business owner headed toward a sale. Adam calls exit planning a three-legged stool made up of a personal piece, a financial piece, and a business piece, and he spends the most time on the one owners skip most often, figuring out who you are once the company isn't yours to run anymore. He points to owners who spend years chasing their number, the after-tax amount they need to walk away with and fund the life they want, without ever answering the quieter question of whether they're running a manufacturing shop or a private medical practice.

Discussing taxes, Adam lays out three levers a business owner can pull before a sale. Entity structure comes first, since a C corp and an S corp create very different tax pictures depending on whether you're drawing income now or cashing out later. Charitable giving is the one he says gets missed most often, since front-loading a few years of planned giving into the year of a sale can offset a sizable slice of the capital gain. Then there's the negotiation itself, where a seller wants the sale allocated to capital gains and a buyer sometimes wants the opposite, and Adam says these decisions need years of lead time to work through with a level head. Once the check clears, the question remains: who are you on an ordinary Tuesday morning, after decades spent building an identity around running the company? Adam's answer keeps coming back to intentionality, filling in a blank calendar with travel, grandkids, or a new hobby well before the last day on the job.

⏱️ Timestamps: 

• (01:00) A credentials icebreaker

• (02:00) What the CEPA designation covers and why Adam pursued it

• (04:00) The State of Owner Readiness study and its 75% stat

• (07:00) The three-legged stool: personal, financial, and business

• (11:00) Why "always be prepping to sell" applies with no sale on the horizon

• (13:00) Getting into the weeds on tax planning ahead of a sale

• (13:32) Entity structure as the first tax lever

• (14:43) Charitable giving as a second lever

• (15:45) Negotiating capital gains versus ordinary income

• (17:42) Why an early start beats a late one, and the pivot to life after the business

• (20:18) The advisor's role in the transition to retirement

• (22:55) Why intentionality shapes a successful retirement

• (26:25) Podcast disclosures

Resources:

Long Story Short website | burneywealth.com/podcast

Follow Burney Wealth Management on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/company/burneywealthmanagement 

Follow Adam Newman on Linkedin | https://www.linkedin.com/in/adam-newman-cfa-cfp%C2%AE-48853916/ 

Follow Andy Pratt on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/in/andyjpratt/ 

THE STATE OF OWNER READINESS™ RESEARCH from Exit Planning Institute | https://exit-planning-institute.org/state-of-owner-readiness 

#ExitPlanning #BusinessOwners #TaxPlanning #RetirementPlanning #WealthManagement

The Burney Company is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Burney Wealth Management is a division of the Burney Company. Registration with the SEC or any state securities authority does not imply that Burney Company or any of its principals or employees possess a particular level of skill or training in the investment advisory business or any other business. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended as personalized investment advice, legal advice, tax advice, or a recommendation.

Andy Pratt comes into this episode fresh from an ETF conference in Philadelphia, carrying a chart he can't stop thinking about. Two emerging market funds, both from well known providers and both marketed as broad, diversified index products, produced very different results this year, one up 14%, the other up 26%. Andy and Adam trace the entire gap back to a single country.

From there, Adam brings in a retirement video that's been stuck in his head for a different reason. It argues that there's exactly one correct age to start collecting Social Security, built on math that Adam picks apart piece by piece. The conversation moves into what a good Social Security decision depends on, especially for married couples, and why planning around a single life expectancy number can backfire.

⏱️ Timestamps: 

• (00:00) Andy back from an ETF conference in Philadelphia, and a Philly cheesesteak debate

• (01:41) A conference chart comparing two emerging market ETFs with very different returns

• (03:33) The one country that explains a 12-point performance gap between them

• (05:41) How market concentration in the US compares to the rest of the world

• (09:17) Home country bias, and why staying broadly diversified pays off

• (12:19) A YouTube video claiming there's only one right way to claim Social Security

• (14:11) Picking apart the video's breakeven age math

• (16:39) Why Social Security is a longevity decision, not a simple math problem

• (18:44) Delaying benefits as protection for a lower-earning spouse

• (19:53) A pattern across retirement content online, from Social Security to the 4% rule

• (21:24) Why generic financial advice online isn't built for anyone's specific situation

• (22:39) Planning for a longer life instead of guessing a breakeven age

• (22:55) Staying skeptical of what shows up in a social media feed

• (23:04) Podcast disclosures

Resources:

Long Story Short website | burneywealth.com/podcast

Follow Burney Wealth Management on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/company/burneywealthmanagement 

Follow Adam Newman on Linkedin | https://www.linkedin.com/in/adam-newman-cfa-cfp%C2%AE-48853916/ 

Follow Andy Pratt on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/in/andyjpratt/ 

#LongStoryShort #BurneyWealth #SocialSecurity #ETFs #RetirementPlanning

The Burney Company is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Burney Wealth Management is a division of the Burney Company. Registration with the SEC or any state securities authority does not imply that Burney Company or any of its principals or employees possess a particular level of skill or training in the investment advisory business or any other business. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended as personalized investment advice, legal advice, tax advice, or a recommendation.

Adam Newman and Andy Pratt open this episode fresh from Burney's annual company conference, held this year in Nashville. After catching up on the highlights, including a full day devoted to how advisors are using AI, they turn to a pattern they see constantly in client meetings. One spouse tends to run point on household finances while the other stays in the background, and Andy shares how he handles that dynamic in his own marriage.

From there, Adam quizzes Andy on a set of longevity statistics that change how families should think about retirement. Long-term care can run well into six figures, and a good chunk of retirement gets spent in fair to poor health rather than good. There's also a gap between advisors and clients, one that shows up when advisors say they've covered healthcare costs and clients say they never heard it.

⏱️ Timestamps: 

• (00:00) Welcome back from Burney's annual company conference in Nashville

• (02:25) The big theme at this year's conference, AI and how advisors are using it

• (04:43) Why one spouse often ends up running the household finances

• (06:15) Andy on staying aligned with his own wife without requiring her at every meeting

• (08:15) What happens when a less-engaged spouse suddenly has to manage everything alone

• (11:05) A longevity pop quiz, starting with how many Americans turn 65 each day

• (12:25) The odds a healthy 65-year-old today reaches age 85

• (13:45) The lifelong cost of long-term care, and the gap between men and women

• (14:15) Lifespan versus healthspan, and why the difference changes a plan

• (16:35) The disconnect between what advisors think they've discussed and what clients recall

• (19:40) Avoiding both extremes, underplanning and overplanning for healthcare costs

• (22:35) Why a retirement plan is never really finished

• (25:21) Podcast disclosures

Resources:

Long Story Short website | burneywealth.com/podcast

Follow Burney Wealth Management on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/company/burneywealthmanagement 

Follow Adam Newman on Linkedin | https://www.linkedin.com/in/adam-newman-cfa-cfp%C2%AE-48853916/ 

Follow Andy Pratt on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/in/andyjpratt/ 

#RetirementPlanning #LongTermCare #FamilyFinances #LongStoryShort #BurneyWealth

The Burney Company is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Burney Wealth Management is a division of the Burney Company. Registration with the SEC or any state securities authority does not imply that Burney Company or any of its principals or employees possess a particular level of skill or training in the investment advisory business or any other business. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended as personalized investment advice, legal advice, tax advice, or a recommendation.

A client sent in a question this week that turned into the entire episode. The US national debt just crossed $40 trillion, and everyone wants to know if that number is as scary as it sounds. Adam Newman and Andy Pratt pull the emotional reaction apart from the numbers, starting with a simple but important distinction, a government does not run its finances as a household does.

They trace two moments in history when the country worked its way down from a debt load this heavy, once by letting inflation run hot in the 1940s, once by cutting spending in the 1990s, and lay out what each path cost the people who lived through it. By the end, Adam and Andy get specific about where your money should sit if this headline has you rattled, pointing to diversification and equities as the stronger long-term shield against currency erosion.

⏱️ Timestamps: 

• (00:00) Intro and what to do with $40 trillion

• (03:29) Why this became the flagship topic of the episode

• (04:08) Is the debt as bad as the headlines suggest

• (05:00) Why the real question is whether we can carry the debt, not pay it off

• (08:04) The frog in boiling water and how debt problems build slowly

• (11:32) What is driving the rise in interest costs

• (14:40) The Moody's downgrade and how rising rates hit everyday borrowing costs

• (15:41) Debunking the myth about China owning US debt

• (19:17) Core investment tenets, diversification, and equities as an inflation hedge

• (20:48) Two times in history the US brought debt to GDP down

• (25:21) The two paths forward, cutting spending or allowing inflation

• (28:00) What this means for investors right now

• (29:00) Why equities have historically been the better inflation hedge

• (30:40) Podcast disclosures

Resources:

Long Story Short website | burneywealth.com/podcast

Follow Burney Wealth Management on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/company/burneywealthmanagement 

Follow Adam Newman on Linkedin | https://www.linkedin.com/in/adam-newman-cfa-cfp%C2%AE-48853916/ 

Follow Andy Pratt on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/in/andyjpratt/ 

#WealthManagement #NationalDebt #FinancialPlanning #InvestingStrategy #EconomicOutlook

The Burney Company is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Burney Wealth Management is a division of the Burney Company. Registration with the SEC or any state securities authority does not imply that Burney Company or any of its principals or employees possess a particular level of skill or training in the investment advisory business or any other business. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended as personalized investment advice, legal advice, tax advice, or a recommendation.

Adam Newman and Andy Pratt kick off by ribbing each other about sports betting apps, then move into a bigger topic, the growing number of young investors who treat sports betting and prediction markets as part of their financial plan. A recent survey found that a large share of Gen Z investors see this kind of risk-taking as a way to catch up financially, and Adam and Andy talk through why that instinct makes sense even when the math works against it. Andy argues that time, not big bets, is the most valuable asset a young investor has, and the two get into why families who talk openly about money tend to raise kids who make steadier choices later on.

From there, Adam and Andy get into what midterm election years have historically meant for the stock market, including the choppier stretches that tend to show up in the months before November and the strong average returns that have followed once votes are counted. They point to company earnings growth as the main driver of this year's performance, and they share their usual reminder to keep political opinions and portfolio decisions in separate lanes.

⏱️ Timestamps: 

• (00:00) Intro and some preseason gambling banter

• (02:00) Why sports betting looks different for this generation

• (03:37) Betting reframed as a way to catch up financially

• (04:00) The eight in ten Gen Z investors stat

• (04:49) Why every young generation feels financially behind

• (06:00) Time as the number one investing asset

• (09:00) Making room for open family conversations about money

• (10:00) Learning by doing versus learning by talking

• (11:00) A simple way to cap speculative spending

• (14:00) Midterm election years and stock market seasonality

• (17:00) Keeping political opinions separate from portfolio decisions

• (18:00) A lighthearted take on hedging with a sports bet

• (20:00) Podcast disclosures

Resources:

Long Story Short website | burneywealth.com/podcast

Follow Burney Wealth Management on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/company/burneywealthmanagement 

Follow Adam Newman on Linkedin | https://www.linkedin.com/in/adam-newman-cfa-cfp%C2%AE-48853916/ 

Follow Andy Pratt on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/in/andyjpratt/ 

Article: “Betting retirement on the big game? Gen Z investors are gambling on sports as a financial plan” | finance.yahoo.com/markets/articles/betting-retirement-big-game-gen-123000699.html 

#WealthManagement #FinancialPlanning #GenZFinance #InvestingBasics #MidtermElections

The Burney Company is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Burney Wealth Management is a division of the Burney Company. Registration with the SEC or any state securities authority does not imply that Burney Company or any of its principals or employees possess a particular level of skill or training in the investment advisory business or any other business. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended as personalized investment advice, legal advice, tax advice, or a recommendation.

Andy and Adam kick off this episode talking about the SpaceX IPO, and the idea that every investor is bound to make a few mistakes along the way. Adam notes that almost every long-time client has a story about an early misstep, and that lessons learned when the dollar amounts are small are the cheapest ones to learn. 

That sets up Andy's focus for the episode, one of his strongest takes yet, that being overly focused on dividend yield in retirement can work against you. He and Adam get into why dividend income and the cash you need to live on are two different things, why capital appreciation drives most long-term returns, and why the instinct to never touch your principal deserves a second look rather than blind faith.

⏱️ Timestamps: 

• (01:00) Nashville heat and a little bit of trouble

• (02:00) Why every investor needs to screw up a little

• (02:00) What actually makes an experienced investor

• (05:00) Passing investment lessons to the next generation

• (06:00) Andy's strongest take on dividend investing

• (07:00) What income means to a stock versus what it means to you

• (09:00) Dividends versus share buybacks

• (11:00) Why capital appreciation drives most of the return

• (12:00) Paying yourself a personal dividend through total return

• (14:00) What "not touching the principal" really means

• (17:00) Comparing dividend income to a total return approach

• (19:00) Send us your questions and share the podcast

• (20:30) Podcast disclosures

Resources:

Long Story Short website | burneywealth.com/podcast

Follow Burney Wealth Management on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/company/burneywealthmanagement 

Follow Adam Newman on Linkedin | https://www.linkedin.com/in/adam-newman-cfa-cfp%C2%AE-48853916/ 

Follow Andy Pratt on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/in/andyjpratt/ 

#RetirementPlanning #RetirementReadiness #TaxPlanning #DividendInvesting #WealthManagement

The Burney Company is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Burney Wealth Management is a division of the Burney Company. Registration with the SEC or any state securities authority does not imply that Burney Company or any of its principals or employees possess a particular level of skill or training in the investment advisory business or any other business. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended as personalized investment advice, legal advice, tax advice, or a recommendation.