Macro Crude: Understanding Finance and The Global Economy (Oil, Stocks, Commodities, Currencies)

Q2 21: Support from LNG Supply outages in the Pacific Basin and nuclear outages in Japan and Korea

·South Korea had to shut its HanulNo.1 and 2 nuclear reactors (1.9 GW) this week after an influx of sea salps(marine organisms) clogged water systems used to cool the nuclear reactors. This is the second time in less than three weeks these units have had to be shut down and could lead to incremental demand for 1-2 spot LNG cargoes.

·Japan’s nuclear regulator has temporarily banned TEPCO from operating its nuclear plant in Niigata – due to safety concerns. TEPCO had originally planned to restart its two nuclear reactors (2.6 GW) over the May-June period and the latest ruling pushes out the chances of TEPCO operating the plant until at least H2 2022. Japanese LNG imports are expected to be up by 0.45 Mt y/y in Q2 21.

·Prelude and Sakhalin are back to full operation after undergoing maintenance in March, the next planned works will likely happen at Gorgon.

·Gorgon T3 will go offline for large-scale maintenance later this month—starting from 26 April according to Chevron’s schedule. If Chevron finds similar issues to those found at its first two trains last year – the total works could last ~14 weeks until early August (based on T1 work timeline).

·Large-scale maintenance works scheduled at Ichthys, GLNG and North West Shelf in May.

Planned maintenance at PNG LNG will reduce exports from Papua New Guinea in May, although the exact timing of these works has not been officially announced

Q3 21 gas balances to weaken relative to Q2 21 – on higher pipeline supplies

Bearish factors

·Strong pipeline imports from Russia and central Asia will limit Chinese LNG demand growth y/y to 1.0 Mt over the same period.

·Nuclear availability is set to improve in Japan - translating to a drop of 1.1 Mt y/y between July–September.

·11.4 Mt y/y growth of global LNG supply in Q3 21—primarily from the US and Egypt—will far outpace the call from Asia-Pacific markets.

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Constructive factors

•European gas inventories replenished.

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•Argentina expected to import 3 Mt (60-65 cargoes) this sumer of which only 1.7 Mt thus far tendered. They will have to secure another ~1.3 Mt of LNG (June-September). Through the Escobar terminal and Bahia Blanca FSRU terminal.

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•India and Pakistan. ~ 1 Mtpa incremental of imports due to FSRU (HoeghGiant) and ExcelerateSequoia)

This episode helps you understand the basics of California's carbon cap and trade programme. Its a primer that goes through the basic of the program, some history, the sectors included and some of the defining mechanisms of the programme like the maximum holding limit, minimum auction price.