This week, the Macrocast team is joined by frequent contributor John Dick of CivicScience to take the pulse of the U.S. consumer heading into the fall. The latest Economic Sentiment Index showed only a slight improvement, reflecting a consumer who is still unsettled. Americans feel conflicted about their own finances and the job market but remain downbeat on the broader economy. With inflation still weighing on household budgets, caution is creeping into decisions around major purchases, investments, and financial security.

The team also breaks down the latest inflation data and what it could mean for the Federal Reserve’s next move. They dig into the Treasury’s proposed bond buyback program and what it could signal for Washington’s fiscal posture and the national debt. The episode closes with a look at central-bank developments in Europe and Japan.

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FTP

Markets Policy Partners 

CivicScience

This week's episode covers August's jobs report, which beat expectations with solid job growth and upward revisions to prior months. 

The strong data pushed up the odds of a September rate hike, though dovish comments from Governor Christopher Waller left the team divided on the Fed's next move. They also previewed upcoming PPI and CPI data, plus global pressures like elevated EU inflation and continued supply chain strain.

On geopolitics, the team discussed rising China tensions ahead of the Trump-Xi summit. Ed Hill wrapped up with a Capitol Hill update: the House's continuing resolution avoiding a shutdown, prospects for the Clarity Act, and early betting market odds on the midterms.

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FTP

This week, the Macrocast team breaks down Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, where he flagged persistent above-target inflation even as he acknowledged a resilient economy, a clearer signal than the Fed has sent in months. Markets responded by pricing in higher odds of a September rate hike, though the long end of the Treasury curve moved more than policymakers would like, complicating the picture.

They cover Treasury Secretary Bessent's intervention in the long end Treasury market, new sanctions on Iranian financial networks, and close with what's ahead: next week's jobs report, which could be the deciding factor on whether the September hike actually happens. 

For more about the hosts, please see below: 

FTP

Markets Policy Partners 

This week, the Macrocast team is joined by frequent contributor John Dick of CivicScience for a read on the U.S. consumer heading into the fall. Sentiment bounced back after a steep prior decline and household financial health improved again, but the retail picture remains uneven: Walmart guided to its slowest same-store sales growth in years while Target surprised to the upside. 

The team discusses strong back-to-school spending, early holiday intentions, rising credit card balances among younger consumers, and how retailers may deploy tariff refunds into lower prices. The team closes with progress toward a U.S.-Canada tariff agreement and the week ahead: payroll revisions, GDP, core PCE, and NVIDIA earnings.

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Forbes Tate Partners

Markets Policy Partners 

CivicScience

This week on the Macrocast, John Fagan is out, so Ed Hill and Brendan Walsh hold down the fort, breaking down the latest inflation data and what it could mean for the Fed's next move. They also dig into a weaker-than-expected retail sales report and recent earnings from Tapestry and Cisco, with Cisco's numbers pointing to continued strength in AI-driven demand.

The conversation turns to a major financing push tied to AI infrastructure that's drawing attention across markets, along with a look at a relatively quiet week on the geopolitical front.

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Forbes Tate Partners

Markets Policy Partners

This week, the Macrocast team unpacks a July jobs report that missed expectations by a wide margin, with payrolls declining even as the unemployment rate ticked lower, a divergence Brendan partially attributes to workers exiting the labor force. The discussion turns to the hardest-hit sectors, a surprising bright spot in manufacturing, and what stagnant wage growth signals about the broader economy.

John and Brendan explore how the data shifted rate expectations for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and pulled Treasury yields down, alongside Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's critique of the Fed's communication strategy and the joint U.S.-Japan intervention to support the yen. Ed rounds out the episode with the latest from Washington on government funding, crypto legislation, and a Senate bill on college athletics facing pushback from major conferences.

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Forbes Tate Partners

Markets Policy Partners

This week, the Macrocast team examines the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting, where Chair Kevin Walsh held rates steady while maintaining his stance against forward guidance, a decision that drove Treasury yields higher and weighed on equities. The team discusses why the rate hold met expectations, yet a lack of clarity on inflation metrics and the Fed's decision-making framework left markets and analysts wanting more.

The episode also covers steady policy from the Bank of Japan and Bank of England, the market impact of a major hedge fund's liquidation of AI-related positions, and MAG7 earnings that showed strong profitability alongside growing scrutiny of capital spending and reporting transparency. The team closes with a look at economic data on both sides of the Atlantic and key developments in Washington on government funding and Russia sanctions.

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Forbes Tate Partners

Markets Policy Partners 

This week on the Macrocast, John Fagan and Ed Hill examine the renewed U.S.-Iran conflict and its effect on oil markets, with Brent crude climbing above $100 a barrel. The discussion turns to the Federal Reserve, where Chair Kevin Warsh's approach of "constructive ambiguity" leaves markets uncertain ahead of the next meeting, alongside notable policy moves from the ECB and Bank of Japan.

The episode also covers the Trump administration's latest tariff announcements and their firmer legal basis, along with key developments in Washington: progress on the NDAA, reconciliation, and a continuing resolution, plus new obstacles facing the Senate's crypto legislation.

For more about the hosts, please see below: 

Forbes Tate Partners

Markets Policy Partners 

This week on the Macrocast, Brendan and Ed were joined by frequent guest John Dick of CivicScience to review his latest Economic Sentiment Index. John discussed the continued improvement of consumer sentiment, indicating that, while still below last year's readings, the consumer continues to feel increasingly comfortable with their economic status. The group discussed how this summer's readings seem to reflect a generally positive cultural and economic vibe, with a record-breaking Prime Day from last month, positive vibes from an exciting and successful World Cup, and celebration of America's 250th birthday. John also commented on small changes in the partisan identification of voters, with a small increase in voters moving away from both political parties to register as nonaffiliated.

John also identified changes in federal government policies related to student loan repayment as a potential warning sign in the months ahead. He also defended the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment readings, which have received some criticism online and, in some newspapers, expressing admiration for their methodology and transparency.

Brendan and Ed discussed the week's bank earnings, which reported blowout capital-markets and investment-banking results but also reflected a strong consumer, consistent with ESI readings.

Finally, the group discussed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's semiannual testimony before Congress. While Chair Warsh didn't provide any expectations or plans for changes in interest rates, he did provide a detailed description of the Working Groups intended to provide input on his plans to revise Fed operations and monetary policy decision-making. He also defended the concept of Fed independence and renewed his calls for decreasing the size of the Fed balance sheet.

John closed the podcast with some examples of ESI data points that could indicate continued optimism among younger consumers.

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Forbes Tate Partners

Markets Policy Partners 

This week on Macrocast, the team breaks down Chair Warsh's first moves at the helm of a divided FOMC and what the June meeting minutes reveal about the growing rift between hawks and doves. Market odds on a rate hike remain low for now but are expected to climb in the months ahead. The episode digs into what's driving that shift.

The team covers mixed economic signals, with strong ISM services data colliding against declining manufacturing employment. Also on the agenda: the resumption of US-Iran hostilities after their ceasefire ended, sending oil prices higher, though still holding relatively steady. On Capitol Hill, the episode covers the Senate leadership shakeup amid Senator McConnell's absence and what it means for the SAVE Act and upcoming appropriations decisions.

For more about the hosts, please see below: 

Forbes Tate Partners

Markets Policy Partners