This episode I am talking about the effect a copy number of a card has on its win rate. All based on 17Lands data for Kamigawa Neon Dynasty. Which cards are best as one-offs, which ones you want as many as you can and everything in between. But the episode is not only NEO-specific. I am trying to see which types of cards (e.g combat tricks, graveyard recursion) fall predominantly to a certain category, so that in future sets you can try and apply those findings directly, before enough data is collected. On top of that I looked at all the data related to Okiba Salvage - my pet bad card of the set.

Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ww_6Z466lfw

Theme song: You Do You, Mana Junkie by essesq (c) copyright 2020 Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution (3.0) license. http://dig.ccmixter.org/files/essesq/61332 Ft: Mana Junkie

This episode is all about the ecology of the deck and Archetypist: a tool developed by Pekka Pulli and me that lets you visualise deck similarity and a localised win rate of similar decks. This allows to show clusters of particularly successful builds for each archetype. I look at clusters of each each archetype and try to figure out what makes those decks tick, what is missing from the less successful builds, etc. You can explore the data yourself at https://archetypist.netlify.app/ using a simple set of parameters you can manipulate.

Theme song: You Do You, Mana Junkie by essesq (c) copyright 2020 Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution (3.0) license. http://dig.ccmixter.org/files/essesq/61332 Ft: Mana Junkie

Today I will be looking at differences between how late you will see cards in Pack 1 and Pack 3 of the draft. We will look at the 17Lands ALSA measure to find those differences. What is ALSA you might ask? Well I will describe it in detail and even visualize it. Looking at differences between P1 and P3 may seem unnecessarily deep, but there are big differences between how we draft pack 1 and pack 3 and knowing how it works could give you a nice edge. Which cards are almost ungettable in P1 but will travel further in P3? Which cards are relatively easy to get in P1 but get trickier to get in P3? I also look at the impact of playing your first pick. Do you get a boost from playing it or not? Spoiler: the boost is tiny, which means that all the advantages of sticking to your first pick are eaten by the drawbacks of forcing the 1st pick when you should pivot. I will also look at the anatomy of draft decks. Do trophy decks differ from others in terms of playing the first picks? Maybe they play more later picks? Well, only one way to find out.

Watch on YouTube: https://youtube.com/watch?v=MVvuwXsNz6I

Theme song: You Do You, Mana Junkie by essesq (c) copyright 2020 Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution (3.0) license. http://dig.ccmixter.org/files/essesq/61332 Ft: Mana Junkie

Today I look at the early evolution of the Kamigawa draft format. How did Arena users' evaluations change over the first two weeks? What does it mean to your drafting? I also try a new method of quantifying if a deck is aggro, midrange or controlling and look at the colour combinations from that perspective to see what do they "want" to achieve. And I shed some light on the Neon Dynasty worst-kept secret. Look at that clickbait. Ok, it is about the numbers behind Kami of Terrible Secrets, I can't bait.

Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AqjTgIhPYnc

Theme song: You Do You, Mana Junkie by essesq (c) copyright 2020 Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution (3.0) license. http://dig.ccmixter.org/files/essesq/61332 Ft: Mana Junkie

This week I look at the differences between NEO Draft and Sealed - which cards do differently, which cards to consider more carefully while building your pool. Apart from that, I look at the Artifact-Enchantment spectrum within the format. What are the optimal numbers of those two types in your deck, are there any trends in relation to the number of cards of those types you play? Based on that I also look at some of the interesting cards in Kamigawa and try to provide numbers that will help you decide whether you should play them or not.

Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eeOO8Lb8ukU

Theme song: You Do You, Mana Junkie by essesq (c) copyright 2020 Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution (3.0) license. http://dig.ccmixter.org/files/essesq/61332 Ft: Mana Junkie

Today we look into the early data from Kamigawa BO1 drafts. I try to explain how Ninjas can sneakily influence win rates of other cards and how to see just how naughty they have been with the data (spoiler: the effect is not that big but can lead you to thinking some cards are a bit better than they really are). I also look at which color pairs are open and speculate a bit on which colors can improve in the future. I also talk about each color pair, their MVPs and cards that have surprisingly high win rates. As always, all the data is courtesy of 17Lands.com

Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MeVw5PSGO84

You Do You, Mana Junkie by essesq (c) copyright 2020 Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution (3.0) license. http://dig.ccmixter.org/files/essesq/61332 Ft: Mana Junkie

This episode is a primer for the new set, Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty. I look at the vital statistics of the set, look at how the removal aligns with the creatures and compare it with some previous sets, to get you up to date on which conditional removal is particularly interesting and which can be potentially a dud. Then I go through all 10 archetypes, looking at cards that are key to them and trying to find some overlooked pockets of synergy and two card interactions.

You Do You, Mana Junkie by essesq (c) copyright 2020 Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution (3.0) license. http://dig.ccmixter.org/files/essesq/61332 Ft: Mana Junkie

A bonus episode: audio of the Kamigawa Neon Dynasty skeleton discussion between myself, SLKerstens and JasonILTG. Cards to watch, combinations to test and a good general overview of what NEO has to offer. And it seems it has to offer a lot. 

VOD of the stream can be found at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-6et5lk3Mr0&feature=youtu.be

You Do You, Mana Junkie by essesq (c) copyright 2020 Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution (3.0) license. http://dig.ccmixter.org/files/essesq/61332 Ft: Mana Junkie

This week I look at the numbers behind Double Feature drafts on Arena based on 17Lands data. Which colour pairs do best, why splashing sometimes matters, what cards over and underperform, what are the top commons and uncommons for each colour and why. I also look at each colour pair and talk about best signpost, best cards and overachievers worth mentioning for (almost) each of them.

Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QRLDgbY95RM

You Do You, Mana Junkie by essesq (c) copyright 2020 Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution (3.0) license. http://dig.ccmixter.org/files/essesq/61332 Ft: Mana Junkie

Look at the VOW draft from the perspective of the whole format and a general look at the format evolution. What are the stages of the format getting mature? How can you use data to position yourself well in a more settled format? What numbers should you be looking at and at what stage? How does card evaluation change and how does it impact color pair strength?

See the episode slides: https://bit.ly/magicnumbers20

Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_5ECEW5O_pg

You Do You, Mana Junkie by essesq (c) copyright 2020 Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution (3.0) license. http://dig.ccmixter.org/files/essesq/61332 Ft: Mana Junkie