Magic Numbers

This week we look at the art of wheeling. How to use 17lands data to reliably predict which cards you open in a draft can return to you doing the full circle. That way you can maximise your draft outcomes and create a great way to produce your own draft signal. We also look at what cards do high win rate players draft more aggressively and which ones do they actively avoid.

Check the YouTube recording of it to see any graphs that are hard to imagine in the audio-only format: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=86f2CmgtusU

Find all things Sierkovitz: https://linktr.ee/sierkovitz

Theme song: You Do You, Mana Junkie by essesq (c) copyright 2020 Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution (3.0) license. http://dig.ccmixter.org/files/essesq/61332 Ft: Mana Junkie

This week's episode is about being up to speed. Up to speed with the changes in the format. How not to fall into a trap of playing week one drafts in week 3 and how to update your format fundamentals without losing too much time on it? How to know which archetypes are more open than others at any given point in time. But that is not all. HBG is the fastest non-cube draft format in Arena history. How to deal with the speed of Mardu color combinations and how to look at the game length data through the lens of game speed? Which color combinations are fast and which ones are quite successful despite being slower?

Check the YouTube recording of it to see any graphs that are hard to imagine in the audio-only format: https://youtu.be/eXZm-deDPbs

Find all things Sierkovitz: https://linktr.ee/sierkovitz

Theme song: You Do You, Mana Junkie by essesq (c) copyright 2020 Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution (3.0) license. http://dig.ccmixter.org/files/essesq/61332 Ft: Mana Junkie

First peek into Alchemy Horizon's: Baldur's Gate Draft data. What is the big picture of the format? Its speed? Which color combination do best? Then I take a slightly deeper dive into each archetype and try to figure out which cards are stars, hidden gems and traps. NOTE: Due to release schedule, episode #42 will only be available on YouTube.

Check the YouTube recording of it to see any graphs that are hard to imagine in the audio-only format: https://youtu.be/SfPX2NPvf1A

Find all things Sierkovitz: https://linktr.ee/sierkovitz

Theme song: You Do You, Mana Junkie by essesq (c) copyright 2020 Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution (3.0) license. http://dig.ccmixter.org/files/essesq/61332 Ft: Mana Junkie

This week we dive into the personal SNC draft data of Carl Chase, AKA twoduckcubed, a prolific limited grinder and a co-host of Mystical Dispute podcast, one of the best limited podcasts in existence (seriously, give it a try). Personal data lets you look at your own strengths and shortcomings and improve based on the information you can extract and looking at one of the top players in the game and seeing where are his blind spots can be very helpful for you when you introspect your own data. We look at Carl's draft preferences, his own individual card win rates and his tendencies in mulliganning, deckbuilding etc. Even though the episode is SNC specific, many of the discussion points are universal to draft as a format altogether.

Check the YouTube recording of it to see any graphs that are hard to imagine in the audio-only format: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZatDvMf1cmU

Find all things Sierkovitz: https://linktr.ee/sierkovitz

Theme song: You Do You, Mana Junkie by essesq (c) copyright 2020 Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution (3.0) license. http://dig.ccmixter.org/files/essesq/61332 Ft: Mana Junkie

What builds for each draft archetype in SNC are the most successful? Which cards are essential for success and which themes win more than others? To answer those questions I look at the similarities between decks and use some fancy maths to cluster the decks together and find clusters that win more than the others.   A side benefit of this episode is a tool that lets you explore each archetype and see for yourself what made each color combination tick.  Feel free to explore the tool here: https://archetypist.netlify.app/ This episode would not be possible without the help of Pekka Pulli, the developer of the archetypist tool.

Check the YouTube recording of it to see any graphs that are hard to imagine in the audio-only format: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nsiWMPq_Pac

Find all things Sierkovitz: https://linktr.ee/sierkovitz

Theme song: You Do You, Mana Junkie by essesq (c) copyright 2020 Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution (3.0) license. http://dig.ccmixter.org/files/essesq/61332 Ft: Mana Junkie

Theros Beyond Death will soon be back to Premier Draft queues. What is the format about, what are the archetypes about and what does the data say about the winning strategies? Speed of the format, best cards in draft and how to avoid pitfalls of THB draft. All in a manageable 2 hour chunk.

Check the YouTube recording of it to see any graphs that are hard to imagine in the audio-only format: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GWorMx1f4wo

Find all things Sierkovitz: https://linktr.ee/sierkovitz

Theme song: You Do You, Mana Junkie by essesq (c) copyright 2020 Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution (3.0) license. http://dig.ccmixter.org/files/essesq/61332 Ft: Mana Junkie

What does the data tell us about Best of Three drafts in Streets of New Capenna? Best of Three is different from Best of One in multiple aspects. There is no hand smoother, which leads to worse curve-outs, more mulliganning, which damages deck consistency. There is also sideboarding between the games, which makes some cards unplayable in BO1 valid choices for games 2 and 3 once you have seen some key cards from opponents deck. I look at, which colors do well in BO3, which cards perform differently in BO3 than in BO1 drafts. One hypothesis is that draft pods in BO3 are populated by, on average, stronger players. I test this hypothesis using the format data. I also look at mulligan stats, and at the cards that are used as sideboard cards and evaluate their utility as such.

Reminder: This podcast is a recording of a stream, which relies heavily on graphics. Check the you tube recording of it to see any graphs that are hard to imagine in the audio-only format.

Check the YouTube recording of it to see any graphs that are hard to imagine in the audio-only format: https://youtu.be/0nFpc71hbts

Find all things Sierkovitz: https://linktr.ee/sierkovitz

Theme song: You Do You, Mana Junkie by essesq (c) copyright 2020 Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution (3.0) license. http://dig.ccmixter.org/files/essesq/61332 Ft: Mana Junkie

This week I look into what makes top 17Lands.com users win more in draft than others do. From their color preferences, pick orders, which cards they prioritise, include in their decks, there are hints on what is the key to their success in draft and I try to unlock them digging through the data.  Also I get attacked by my cat.  Reminder: This podcast is a recording of a stream, which relies heavily on graphics. 

Check the youtube recording of it to see any graphs that are hard to imagine in the audio-only format.  https://youtu.be/jBGlI0vr3ic

Find all things Sierkovitz: https://linktr.ee/sierkovitz

Theme song: You Do You, Mana Junkie by essesq (c) copyright 2020 Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution (3.0) license. http://dig.ccmixter.org/files/essesq/61332 Ft: Mana Junkie

This week we look at the data related to Brokers family in SNC Drafts. Brokers (also known as Bant) and related color pairs (WUG, WU and WG) are the menace of SNC draft format, having significantly higher win rates than other color combinations. But as the colors become more contested over times, time to look at what cards in other color combinations do well against the Brokers. Which colors have higher win rate against Brokers? Which cards perform better against them? What bigger picture can we draw from this data? And why formats with very strong commons can be even more annoying than bomb laden sets. Enjoy!  Reminder: This podcast is a recording of a stream, which relies heavily on graphics. 

Check the YouTube recording of it to see any graphs that are hard to imagine in the audio-only format: https://youtu.be/tOBzVbYcsWA

Find all things Sierkovitz: https://linktr.ee/sierkovitz

Theme song: You Do You, Mana Junkie by essesq (c) copyright 2020 Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution (3.0) license. http://dig.ccmixter.org/files/essesq/61332 Ft: Mana Junkie

This episode focuses on what are draft signals and how to find the best way to read them. You will hear a lot of content creators talking about "strong signals" or "signal X is open" during draft, but what exactly are signals? I try to define exactly that and go even several steps further. I look at SNC draft data and try to figure out what is a meaningful signal during the draft. On my quest to do so, I find plenty of things that are NOT a strong signal when you look at thousands of drafts, and some of them are quite surprising (to me at least). But don't worry, eventually I get there and find a pretty good way to predict color openness during draft.

Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GeZFlfWx_J0

Find all things Sierkovitz: https://linktr.ee/sierkovitz

Theme song: You Do You, Mana Junkie by essesq (c) copyright 2020 Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution (3.0) license. http://dig.ccmixter.org/files/essesq/61332 Ft: Mana Junkie