Manifold

Steve talks about AI in light of his recent travels to SF, Singapore, Manila, Berkeley, and Silicon Valley.

Chapters:

• (00:00) - Overview: SF, Singapore, Manila, Berkeley

Links:

• Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2001.08361
• AI rollout in Philippines Call Centers: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kps3M1wMHUM
• LLM rankings and Qwen2: https://huggingface.co/spaces/open-llm-leaderboard/blog
• The Economist on China LLMs: https://archive.ph/nW7ch
• Situational Awareness summary: https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1803414701159714825

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

--

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models. 

Mechanize is hiring! 

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu 

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists. 

For example: 

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors  $500K salary 

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve  $300K salary 

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Philippe Lemoine is a PhD candidate at Cornell University in philosophy and a widely-read public intellectual. We discuss philosophy, the scientific research used to justify COVID lockdowns, and the Russia-Ukraine war.

• Philippe’s writing: philippelemoine.com
• Philippe on X: https://twitter.com/phl43

• (00:00) - Introduction and Guest Background

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

--

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models. 

Mechanize is hiring! 

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu 

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists. 

For example: 

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors  $500K salary 

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve  $300K salary 

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Dr John Seo is co-founder and a managing director at Fermat Capital Management, LLC. He has over 30 years’ experience in fixed income bond and derivatives trading and has been active in the Insurance-Linked Securities (“ILS”) market for over 25 years. Prior to forming Fermat with his brother Nelson in 2001, Dr Seo was senior trader in the Insurance Products Group at Lehman Brothers, an officer of Lehman Re, and a state-appointed advisor to the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund. Dr. Seo’s work in catastrophe funds was featured in a cover article for the New York Times Magazine (‘In Nature’s Casino’ by Michael Lewis, 26 August 2007), and he has also testified before US Congress as an expert on the catastrophe bond market (‘Hearings from the 110th Congress’, 6 September 2007). Dr Seo holds a PhD in Biophysics from Harvard University and a BS in Physics from MIT. He is based in Connecticut.

Steve and John discuss:

00:00 Introduction

00:36 Early Career and Influences

02:10 The Investor Choice Problem

07:21 Academic Background and Family Challenges

12:43 First Steps in Finance

30:39 Lehman Brothers

37:29 Introduction to Cat Bonds

44:53 Parallels Between Derivatives and Insurance Markets

01:03:22 Building Fermat Capital

01:09:51 Future of Catastrophe Bonds

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

--

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. 

Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models. 

Mechanize is hiring! 

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu 

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists. 

For example: 

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors  $500K salary 

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve  $300K salary 

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Molson Hart is the CEO of Viahart, an educational toy company. He has deep experience selling products manufactured in China, using Amazon and other platforms. He produced a documentary about the challenges Amazon's market dominance creates for sellers and buyers worldwide. His recent video about a recent trip to visit factories in China went viral, generating millions of views on X.

• Molson Hart on X: https://x.com/Molson_Hart
• Amazon Documentary: https://youtu.be/8L6MaNVNBuQ?si=YMRb4z5F12CoJJI3

Steve and Molson discuss:

1:22 Molson Hart's background, experience in China

5:26 The IQ Question

13:19 Entrepreneurship and China

38:40 Selling on Amazon 

48:32 Alternatives and Competitors to Amazon

50:40 The Future of Amazon

55:30 Advice for Aspiring Entrepreneurs

57:27 Understanding China

1:07:43 China's Rising Global Influence

1:16:12 Personal and National Identities

1:18:45 Demographics: China's Future

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

--

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models. 

Mechanize is hiring! 

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu 

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists. 

For example: 

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors  $500K salary 

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve  $300K salary 

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Jaan Tallinn is a billionaire computer programmer and investor. He was a co-founder of Skype, and has invested in companies like DeepMind and Anthropic.

Tallinn is a leading figure in the field of existential risk, having co-founded both the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) at the University of Cambridge, in the United Kingdom and the Future of Life Institute in Cambridge, Massachusetts, in the United States.

Steve and Jaan discuss:

00:00 Introduction

00:33 Jaan Tallinn: AI Investor

02:03 Acceleration Toward AGI: Excitement and Anxiety

04:29 AI Capabilities and Future Evolution

05:53 AI Safety, Ethics, and the Call for a Moratorium

07:12 Foundation models: Scaling, Synthetic Data, and Integration

13:08 AI and Cybersecurity: Threats and Precautions

26:52 Policy goals and desired outcomes

36:27 Cultural narratives on AI and how they differ globally

39:19 Closing Thoughts and Future Directions

References:

• Jaan’s top priorities for reducing AI extinction risk: https://jaan.info/priorities/

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

--

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models. 

Mechanize is hiring! 

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu 

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists. 

For example: 

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors  $500K salary 

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve  $300K salary 

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Glenn Luk has worked as an investment banker, private equity investor, and startup founder. He has closely analyzed aspects of the Chinese economy, including its GDP and high speed rail system.

Steve and Glenn discuss:

• (00:00) - Introduction

References:

• Glenn Luk on Twitter: https://twitter.com/GlennLuk
• Glenn on High Speed Rail: https://www.readwriteinvest.com/p/is-high-speed-rail-in-china-a-gray
• Munger and Ricardo: https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2008/03/charlie-munger-ricardo-and-finance.html

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

--

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models. 

Mechanize is hiring! 

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu 

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists. 

For example: 

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors  $500K salary 

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve  $300K salary 

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Casey Handmer (PhD, Caltech, general relativity) is the founder of Terraform Industries. He is one of the most capable and ambitious geo-engineers on planet Earth!

Terraform Industries is scaling technology to produce cheap natural gas with sunlight and air. Using solar energy, they extract carbon from the air and synthesize natural gas, all at the same site.

March 2024: "Terraform completes the end to end demo, successfully producing fossil carbon free pipeline grade natural gas from sunlight and air. We also achieved green hydrogen at <$2.50/kg-H2 and DAC CO2 at <$250/T-CO2, two incredible milestones."

Links:

• Casey Handmer’s website: https://www.caseyhandmer.com/
• Terraform Industries: https://terraformindustries.com/
• Nerds on Patrol [Episode 3] - Terraform Industries: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9k3dHFJPEU

Steve and Casey discuss:

0:00 Introduction

00:31 Casey's early life and background, from Australia to Caltech

07:55 The academic path and transition to tech entrepreneurship

10:40 Terraform Industries

15:21 Solar costs, efficiency, and global Impact

24:25 A world powered by Terraform methane

31:27 The entrepreneurial journey: challenges and insights

35:01 Investor dynamics and strategic decisions for Terraform

41:28 The hard Reality of manufacturing and innovation

44:11 Navigating intellectual property and strategic partnerships

45:49 The moral and technical challenges of carbon neutrality

55:48 Looking ahead: Terraform's next milestones and the solar revolution

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

--

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models. 

Mechanize is hiring! 

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu 

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists. 

For example: 

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors  $500K salary 

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve  $300K salary 

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Russell Clark is a hedge fund investor who has lived and worked in both Japan and China. He writes the widely followed Substack Capital Flows and Asset Markets: https://www.russell-clark.com/

Steve and Russell discuss:

0:00 Introduction

0:52 Russell's background and experiences in Japan

13:25 Hong Kong and finance

31:53 China property bubble

48:54 Dollar status as global reserve currency

56:09 Japan and China economies from a long run perspective

1:05:07 Inflation, US economy, and macro observations

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

--

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models. 

Mechanize is hiring! 

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu 

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists. 

For example: 

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors  $500K salary 

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve  $300K salary 

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Stephen Grugett is the co-founder of Manifold Markets, the world's largest prediction market platform where people bet on politics, tech, sports, and more. 

Steve and Stephen discuss:

0:00 Introduction

0:52 Stephen Grugett’s background

5:20 The genesis and mission of Manifold Markets

11:25 The play money advantage: Legalities and user engagement

20:47 Manifold’s user base and the power of calibration

23:35 Simplifying prediction markets for broader engagement

27:31 Revenue streams and future business directions

30:46 Legal challenges in prediction markets

31:47 Dating markets

32:53 The Art of PR

38:32 Global reach and community engagement

39:27 The future of Manifold Markets and user predictions

43:38 Life in the Bay Area; Tech, culture, and crazy stuff

Manifold Markets: https://manifold.markets/

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

--

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. 

Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models. 

Mechanize is hiring! 

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu 

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists. 

For example: 

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors  $500K salary 

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve  $300K salary 

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Raymond McGovern is a former Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) analyst, serving from 1963 to 1990. His CIA career began under President John F. Kennedy and lasted through the presidency of George H. W. Bush. McGovern advised Henry Kissinger during the Richard Nixon administration, and during the Ronald Reagan administration he chaired National Intelligence Estimates and prepared the President's Daily Brief.

He received the Intelligence Commendation Medal at his retirement but returned it in 2006 to protest the CIA's involvement in torture.

Steve and Ray discuss:

0:00 Introduction

01:25 Ray McGovern's assessment of the JFK assassination

26:10 Hunter Biden's laptop

30:50 Ukraine and the U.S. intelligence services' role in the deep state

55:20 Strategic implications of the Ukraine war for the U.S.

01:03:38 Are things worse today, versus 1963?

Books referenced in this episode:

JFK and the Unspeakable

https://www.amazon.com/JFK-Unspeakable-Why-Died-Matters/dp/1439193886

Mary's Mosaic: The CIA Conspiracy to Murder John F. Kennedy

https://www.amazon.com/Marys-Mosaic-Conspiracy-Kennedy-Pinchot/dp/1510708928/

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

--

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. 

Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models. 

Mechanize is hiring! 

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu 

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists. 

For example: 

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors  $500K salary 

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve  $300K salary 

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.