Manifold

Steve discusses DNA and the origin of life on Earth, the Fermi Paradox (is there alien life?), AI and its implications for the Simulation Question: could our universe be a simulation? Are we machines, but don't know it?

Slides: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1CrWLiKYhLbDLG8yTOBySrsKrzAUbV-FES1toeJL-UWE/edit?usp=sharing

Further discussion of the Simulation Question in light of AGI, and a refinement from quantum mechanics: The Quantum Simulation Question: https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2019/10/the-quantum-simulation-hypothesis-do-we.html

CORRECTION: 31:25 The size of our galaxy is not 100 million light years. I should have said ~100 THOUSAND = 100k light years instead!!!

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

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Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models. 

Mechanize is hiring! 

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu 

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists. 

For example: 

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors  $500K salary 

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve  $300K salary 

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Sean Reyes is Utah’s Attorney General and a producer for the movie “Sound of Freedom.” Steve and Sean discuss his personal story, human trafficking, and the role of technology in law enforcement.

More on Reyes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sean_Reyes

NOTE: Reyes has announced that he will not seek re-election as Utah AG: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HEEj4UgjDL4

00:00 Sean Reyes’ early life and family history

14:21 Sean's personal journey and career

21:28 Political journey and decision to run for AG

24:08 The movie Sound of Freedom

28:45 The reality of human trafficking

31:40 Technology and law enforcement

44:00 The horror of human trafficking: victims, aftercare, and the media

01:05:23 Future plans and aspirations

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

--

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models. 

Mechanize is hiring! 

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu 

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists. 

For example: 

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors  $500K salary 

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve  $300K salary 

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

TP Huang returns for the third time to discuss the US-China strategic competition in terms of military technology.

Previous episodes with TP include:

• China's EV Market Dominance and the Challenges Facing Tesla — #48: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/chinas-ev-market-dominance-and-the-challenges-facing-tesla-48
• Huawei and the US-China Chip War — #44: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/huawei-and-the-us-china-chip-war-44

Steve and TP discuss: 

• (00:00) - Introduction

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

--

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models. 

Mechanize is hiring! 

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu 

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists. 

For example: 

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors  $500K salary 

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve  $300K salary 

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal discusses China's economic growth, its focus on education, and the global implications of its economic and political policies.

https://research.gavekal.com/

Steve and Louis discuss:

• (00:00) - Early life - Gave as French infantry officer

--

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Follow him on X @hsu_steve. 

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models. 

Mechanize is hiring! 

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu 

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists. 

For example: 

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors  $500K salary 

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve  $300K salary 

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Charles Miller is co-founder and CEO of Lynk. He is a serial space entrepreneur with 30 years of experience in the space industry.

Lynk - https://lynk.world/

Steve and Charles discuss:

0:00 Introduction and guest background

1:27 Miller's early passion for space

3:54 Evolution of commercial space

6:42 Impact of Elon Musk and SpaceX

8:01 The challenges of early stage startups

11:26 The birth of Lynk, its technical challenges, and breakthroughs

33:11 Use cases for satellite connectivity

35:20 The plan for Lynk satellites

36:41 Competition with Starlink

39:25 Investment opportunities in Lynk

47:04 Satellite technology and global competition

50:21 Impact of Huawei’s satellite phone features

59:01 Advice for entrepreneurs

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

--

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models. 

Mechanize is hiring! 

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu 

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists. 

For example: 

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors  $500K salary 

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve  $300K salary 

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

TP Huang is a computer scientist and analyst of global technology development. He posts often on X: https://twitter.com/tphuang.

0:00 Introduction

2:21 How TP Huang became interested in electric vehicles

6:30 The perception and reality of Chinese products, future of Chinese auto market

9:24 The impact of Tesla on the Chinese electric vehicle market

14:41 Buying a car in China

27:05 China dominates with electric vehicle batteries

30:44 The challenges facing Tesla in China

40:11 The evolution of smart cars, autonomous vehicles, and self driving

50:48 LIDAR technology and autonomous driving

59:08 BYD, China’s energy independence, and power grid

1:14:04 The downstream impact of China leading in tech and electric vehicles

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

--

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models. 

Mechanize is hiring! 

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu 

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists. 

For example: 

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors  $500K salary 

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve  $300K salary 

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Taylor Ogan is Chief Executive Officer of Snow Bull Capital, based in Shenzhen, China.

Follow him on X @TaylorOgan.

Steve and Taylor discuss: 

0:00 Introduction
1:02 Taylor's background and why he moved his firm to China
20:43 China post-pandemic and economic dynamism
33:43 China dominance in electric vehicles; LIDAR
56:55 Investment research: factory and site visits
1:06:52 US-China competition - the future of innovation is in China

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

--

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models. 

Mechanize is hiring! 

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu 

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists. 

For example: 

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors  $500K salary 

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve  $300K salary 

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Bharat Karnad is an Emeritus Professor in National Security Studies at the Center for Policy Research in Delhi. He was a member of India's first National Security Advisory Board and has authored several books on nuclear weapons and Indian security.

Karnad's blog: https://bharatkarnad.com/

Karnad on the death of Homi Bhabha and of other atomic weapons scientists:
https://bharatkarnad.com/2020/12/06/kill-scientists-disrupt-n-weapons-programmes/

An excellent documentary film on the life of Indian theoretical physicist Homi Bhabha:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L6GEGOvXh4g&ab_channel=InternationalCentreforTheoreticalSciences

Steve and Bharat discuss:

0:00 Introduction

0:58 Karnad's educational background, nuclear research, journalism career

26:50 Refocusing India's defense posture from Pakistan to China

45:21 Why don't India and China have better relations?

53:33 India's nuclear arsenal

1:04:31 The mysterious death of Homi Bhabha, India's Oppenheimer

1:28:50 Land of subjugation, the caste system, and English as the language of Indian elites

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

--

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models. 

Mechanize is hiring! 

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu 

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists. 

For example: 

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors  $500K salary 

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve  $300K salary 

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Yasheng Huang is the Epoch Foundation Professor of Global Economics and Management at the MIT Sloan School of Management. His new book is The Rise and Fall of the EAST: How Exams, Autocracy, Stability, and Technology Brought China Success, and Why They Might Lead to Its Decline.

Steve and Yasheng discuss:

0:00 Introduction
1:11 From Beijing to Harvard in the 1980s
15:29 Civil service exams and Huang's new book, "The Rise and Fall of the EAST"
37:14 Two goals: Developing human capital and indoctrination
48:33 Impact of the exam system
57:04 China's innovation peak and decline
1:12:23 Collaboration and relationship with the West
1:21:31 How will the U.S.-China relationship evolve?

Yasheng Huang at MIT
https://mitsloan.mit.edu/faculty/directory/yasheng-huang

Web site:
http://www.yashenghuang.com/

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

--

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models. 

Mechanize is hiring! 

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu 

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists. 

For example: 

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors  $500K salary 

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve  $300K salary 

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

TP Huang is a computer scientist and analyst of global technology development. He posts often on X: https://twitter.com/tphuang.

Steve and TP discuss:

0:00 Introduction: TP Huang and semiconductor technology

5:40 Huawei’s new phone and SoC

23:19 SMIC 7nm chip production in China: Yield and economics

28:21 Impact on Qualcomm

36:08 U.S. sanctions solved the coordination problem for China

semiconductor companies

42:48 5G modem and RF chips: impact on Qualcomm, Broadcom, Apple, etc.

47:14 5G and Huawei

52:50 Satellite capabilities of Huawei phones

56:46 Huawei vs Apple and Chinese consumers

1:01:33 Chip War and AI model training

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

--

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models. 

Mechanize is hiring! 

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu 

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists. 

For example: 

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors  $500K salary 

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve  $300K salary 

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.