The prolongation of existing — and emergence of new — armed conflicts will likely remain a major source of geopolitical instability in the world economy, according to our strategic report on key themes for 2024. Following Iran’s recent strike on Israel, we pose the question: What could an escalation mean for the global economy?   The Decisive podcast > Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts >  Read our blog on escalation implications >  Download our report on 2024 themes >    Speakers: Ken Wattret Vice-President, Global Economics, S&P Global Market Intelligence Kristen Hallam Lead Content Strategist, S&P Global Market Intelligence

We see five key overlapping themes for the year ahead. In this episode, we explore the theme of geopolitical reordering.   National interest objectives will influence reordering of relationships between countries and in multilateral forums, impacting global challenges, flows of trade, and investment. An important indicator underlying the direction of these risks in 2024 will be the outcomes of more than 70 scheduled elections — half of which will be presidential elections. The outcomes will have major implications for policy direction and priorities.   Download the complimentary strategic report, 2024: A disjointed world: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/Info/1123/2024-disjointed-world.html   Speakers: Laurence Allan Head of the Europe/CIS Insights and Analysis, S&P Global Market Intelligence Kristen Hallam Lead Content Strategist, S&P Global Market Intelligence

One of our key themes for 2024 is logistics rewired. At the world's largest ocean container shipping event, TPM, shippers and their transportation providers will have plenty to talk about. Navigation restrictions on the Panama Canal, rerouting from the Red Sea to avoid attacks from Houthi militants, the persistent issue of overcapacity.   How is the shipping industry responding to these shocks and what impact could we see on trade and the global economy?   Join us at #TPM24, March 3 - 6, where these issues will be discussed in depth: https://events.joc.com/tpm/index.html    Speakers: Mark Szakonyi Executive Editor, JOC, S&P Global Market Intelligence Kristen Hallam Lead Content Strategist, S&P Global Market Intelligence

2023 was a year of recovery, giving the air of a return to normal. Unfortunately, normal for supply chains means guiding operations through the middle of a storm of potential disruptions. Some are already visible, including the knock-on from conflict in the Middle East and the prospect of a renewed wave of trade protectionism. Others will emerge by surprise.   Our experts discuss the prospects for trade and supply chains in 2024, with topics including:

• Physical operations present the biggest challenges, with conflict in the Middle East and climate change disrupting shipping networks. The prospect of accidents in the South China Sea triggering further challenges cannot be ruled out. Labor strikes may generate further friction.
• Politics introduces a renewed round of uncertainty thanks to widespread elections. The rise of protectionism and retaliation which got underway in 2023 may spread in 2024 with the real impact only coming in 2025. The cost of environmental policies may widen and rise. More positively there’s the prospect of new trade deals ahead.
• Supply chain and trade activity will stabilize and should recover, particularly in hard-hit non-AI electronics. Decision-makers can prepare by investing in resilience and agility, but it appears investments in risk mitigation alone aren’t being prioritized with the result that firms may be sleep-walking into the next round of disruptions.

Watch the on-demand here: https://pages.marketintelligence.spglobal.com/The-Storm-Before-the-Storm-Q1-24-Trade-and-Supply-Chain-Outlook-Registration-January-2024-FS.html   Speakers: Agnieszka Maciejewska Economics Manager, GTAS Forecasting, S&P Global Market Intelligence Chris Rogers Head of Supply Chain Research, S&P Global Market Intelligence

Droughts and flood events in recent years have highlighted the importance of water as a strategic global resource. Climate change will impact access to water and force many countries to modify how they manage resources, according to a new report from S&P Global Market Intelligence.   The prevalence of severe difficulties to predict weather patterns is likely to continue across the globe affecting populations, countries’ economic performances and key industries that rely on water as an essential resource. The El Niño climate pattern is forecast to significantly impact the world in 2024. Water-related stress, however, will be an issue for many years to come in many parts of the world.   How will governments and businesses respond to water stress? And which industries are most likely to be affected?   Download the 2024 Sustainability Outlook full report: https://pages.marketintelligence.spglobal.com/Big-Picture-2024-Sustainability-Request-CD-Request.html Access all the 2024 Big Picture reports: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/the-big-picture-industry-outlook     Speakers: Veronica Retamales Burford Senior Research Analyst, Latin America Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence William Farmer Analyst, Sub-Saharan Africa, Country Risk, S&P Global Kristen Hallam Lead Content Strategist, S&P Global Market Intelligence

Deceptive shipping practices began to emerge as a topic of interest in 2020, following guidance from the U.S. Treasury Department.   Subterfuge shipping has always been an issue. But this proverbial game of cat and mouse has continued to escalate in terms of the complexity of tactics used to circumvent these regulations, as well as the industry tools used to identify and combat them.   How are the tactics used in subterfuge shipping activities evolving? And what risks do they pose for businesses and financial institutions?   Read the paper: Maritime State of Play Report: Deceptive shipping practices — Emerging company trends Read the paper: Maritime State of Play Report: Evolution of deceptive shipping practices — Disabling/manipulating AIS   Speakers: Jeremy Domballe Subject Matter Expert, Maritime, Trade & Supply Chain, S&P Global Market Intelligence   Kristen Hallam Lead Content Strategist, S&P Global Market Intelligence

The supply chain story of 2023 so far has been one of normalization. Demand has slowed down with U. S. seaborne imports of consumer goods falling in the first eight months of the year. The seasonality of shipping patterns also appears to be returning to normal and global trade activity is likely to stabilize.   But as ever, we see risks on the horizon. Trade policies are becoming more restrictive and sustainability policies are starting to have real consequences for supply chains. Water stress and labor action also threaten supply chain stability.   What is driving the return to normal in supply chains? What strategies are companies exploring to build resilience?   Speakers: Chris Rogers - Head of Supply Chain Research, S&P Global Market Intelligence Kristen Hallam - Lead Content Strategist, S&P Global Market Intelligence

We may be stuck in road traffic for an hour, but ships can be waiting for many hours to enter a port, generating emissions all the while.   In this episode, Turloch Mooney, Product Management Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence discusses what the shipping industry is doing to manage these wait times and get closer to their emissions targets and save money in the process.   Speakers: Turloch Mooney - Product Management Associate Director, Maritime, Trade & Supply Chain, S&P Global Market Intelligence Kristen Hallam - Lead Content Strategist, Global Intelligence & Analytics, S&P Global Market Intelligence

Roughly 18 months ago, Russia invaded Ukraine, sending shock waves through financial and commodities markets. Since then, we've seen rounds of sanctions from the US and EU, an expansion of NATO, and an attempted mutiny in Russia. Still, the war grinds on.   In this episode, we discuss the outlook for the Russia-Ukraine conflict with Alex Kokcharov, S&P Global Market Intelligence's Principal Country Risk Research Analyst. How long is the conflict likely to last? What risk factors could influence its trajectory?   Speakers: Alex Kokcharov - Principal Country Risk Research Analyst, Europe and CIS, S&P Global Market Intelligence Kristen Hallam - Lead Content Strategist, Global Intelligence & Analytics, S&P Global Market Intelligence

The EU’s 11th package of sanctions targeted against Russian trade is to close loopholes and tackle the circumvention of trade through re-exports of goods via third party countries to Russia and also to tackle the illicit transfer of oil via ship-to-ship transfers in EU waters.   Byron McKinney, S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Product Management Director discusses the shipping segment within the transport section of the document.   Listen to the on-demand webinar in full: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/events/webinars/the-european-unions-11th-package-on-the-circumvention-of-sanctions-and-vessel-ship-to-ship-transfers-risks-and-challenges-for-tr   Speaker: Byron McKinney - Product Management Director, Maritime, Trade & Supply Chain, S&P Global Market Intelligence