Maritime and Trade Talk

How close are supply chains to normality? Which industrial policies provide the biggest risks? What strategies should firms be pursuing in the face of perpetual upheaval? Can technology investments help build resilience? Our experts explore these questions and share their outlook for the remainder of 2023 and beyond. Speakers: Chris Rogers Head of Supply Chain Research, S&P Global Market Intelligence Agnieszka Maciejewska Economics Manager, GTAS Forecasting, S&P Global Market Intelligence Mark Fontecchio Research Analyst - IoT, 451 Research, S&P Global Market Intelligence

The global supply chain landscape is returning to "normal" conditions in the second quarter of 2023, with supplier delivery times improving and shipping rates at their lowest since September 2020. However, the second half of the year presents challenges, including the direction of corporate sourcing strategies, political tensions, and the implementation of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Is global trade doomed for a decline or set for recovery? Can corporate decision-makers hope for a new-normal in supply chain operations? Deglobalization or a new era of trade expansion? Our experts discuss the outlook for the rest of 2023 and beyond. The full article explores key trends and challenges for the global supply chain landscape in the coming months: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/blog/global-supply-chains-what-to-watch-in-q2-23 Speakers: Chris Rogers Head of Supply Chain Research, S&P Global Market Intelligence Agnieszka Maciejewska Economics Manager, Trade Forecast, S&P Global Market Intelligence

Russia has repeatedly stated that it will not work with the G7 oil price cap for crude oil that took effect in December 2022, or with the subsequent price cap on refined products that became effective in February 2023. If Russia insists on not conforming to the price cap, it can't use services located in G7 countries due to sanctions controls. This scenario gives rise to the need for a substantial shadow or ghost fleet of vessels able to transport Russian oil as close to capacity as possible while potentially evading G7 sanctions and the crude and refined oil price caps. Listen and learn about the size of the shadow fleet, hot spots for ship-to-ship transfers of cargo, and why financial institutions should be concerned about ghost ships from our expert. Download our white paper on Russia's shadow fleet here: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/Info/0323/russia-shadow-fleet.html, and read more about vessel ownership here: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/research-analysis/vessel-ownership-trade-finance-and-regulatory-compliance.html. Speakers: Byron McKinney - Product Management Director, Global Risk & Maritime, S&P Global Market Intelligence Kristen Hallam - Lead Content Strategist, Global Intelligence & Analytics, S&P Global Market Intelligence

Russia is the most sanctioned country in the world, with many thousands of individuals, entities and traded goods placed under controlled measures by the U.S., Europe and their allies. In this episode, we discuss how successful these sanctions have been over the past year and their impact on the Russian economy and its ability to continue the conflict in Ukraine. The experts also talk about:

• Russia's new trading partnerships, new outlets for oil cargoes and the methods used to evade maritime sanctions
• The continued import of critical military technology and software to sustain the conflict
• The use of transhipment via third countries to maintain illicit trade

Speakers: Byron McKinney - Product Management Director, Global Intelligence & Analytics, S&P Global Market Intelligence Agnieszka Maciejewska - Economics Manager, Trade Forecast, S&P Global Market Intelligence Fotios Katsoulas - Liquid Bulk Principal Analyst, S&P Global Commodity Insights

Trade between the U.S. and China reached a record in 2022 with imports and exports between the countries exceeding $690 billion. What are the forces shaping the economic relations between the two countries and what can we expect on U.S.-China trade going forward?

Speakers:

John Raines - Principal Global Risks Adviser, Head of North America Risk and Director, S&P Global Market Intelligence Todd Lee - Chief China Economist, S&P Global Market Intelligence

In June 2022, the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) provided multiple recommendations to U.S. universities with assistance from the U.S. Department of Commerce and Homeland Security, referencing the proposed dangers of conducting research using foreign controlled goods and sensitive information. The aim of this public notice was to help universities strengthen their export control compliance procedures, and in-turn mitigate the risk of illicit export and import activity. Two of the key issues raised were the efforts required to enforce export control regulations, particularly for deemed exports at universities, and the extent to which the U.S. agencies shared information relevant to export control. In this episode, Ravi Amin and Dr Ian J Stewart review the recommendations made by the U.S. GAO and discuss in detail the complexities of trying to identify potential dual-use, military and sanctioned goods that are controlled under the U.S. Commerce Control List and U.S. Munitions List. Speakers: Ravi Amin - SME Trade Compliance Specialist, Maritime, Trade & Supply Chain, S&P Global Market Intelligence Dr Ian J Stewart - Executive Director, James Martin Center for Non-proliferation Studies

The implementation of a price cap covering Russian-origin crude oil on 5th December has raised a variety of questions regarding its implications;

• How it will affect trading
• Will India and China's appetite for Russian crude continue
• What it means to overall vessel risk in regards to compliance
• Could we see an increase in suspicious Russian shipping activity similar to Iran and Venezuela's sanctions evasion tactics

In this episode, S&P Global Market Intelligence experts discussed what the oil price cap means for your business and an understanding of the likely scenarios we will see in the coming months as a result of the U.S. and EU action in this space. **This episode of the podcast is an excerpt from a webinar. Click here to register and listen to the on-demand webinar. Speakers: Byron McKinney - Product Management Director, Maritime, Trade & Supply Chain, S&P Global Market Intelligence Lilit Gevorgyan - Associate Director – Russia and CIS, Research Advisory Specialty Solutions, S&P Global Market Intelligence Fotios Katsoulas - Liquid Bulk Principal Analyst, Maritime, Trade & Supply Chain, S&P Global Market Intelligence Robert Perkins - Journalist and Editor, S&P Global Commodity Insights

In this episode, Dr. Jakub M. Kwiatkowski, a senior economist within the Global Trade Analytics Suite (GTAS) Forecasting team of S&P Global Market Intelligence talks about the trends in trade shaped by current geopolitical changes and anticipated shifts in trade following international policies and agreements, including:

• Historical quarterly perspective and evaluate the factors that are currently shaping trade like conflicts, trade sanctions and energetic policy
• Trade forecast in GTAS for Q3 2022
• Trade projections which include shifts in trade caused by Russia-Ukraine conflict, sanctions put on Russia, increasing inflation prices, unstable supply chains, current sanctions put on Taiwan by mainland China and changes caused by new energetic policies with consideration of different affect on various modes of transportation

Using GTAS trade predictions, Jakub analyzed the rearrangements in European trade and alternative energy sources for countries after the sanctions implementation on imports from Russia, and discuss the anticipated global trend and the alignment of trade movement with macroeconomic forecasts.

**This episode of the podcast is an excerpt from a webinar. Register and listen to the on-demand webinar here: https://ihsmarkit.com/events/trade-outlook-response-to-geopolitical-events/overview.html

Speaker

Dr. Jakub M. Kwiatkowski - Senior Economist, Global Trade Forecasting, Maritime, Trade & Supply Chain, S&P Global Market Intelligence Jakub is a senior economist within the GTAS Forecasting team, where he contributes to quarterly forecasts of international trade. He specializes in international trade, blue growth and gravity models. He graduated from University of Gdańsk (Ph.D. in economics and finance) and Kiel Institute for the World Economy (Advanced Studies Programe). Jakub's work experience includes both corporate and academic background. Recently, he also works as a researcher at the Economic Faculty at University of Gdańsk. Jakub participated in several research projects founded by the Polish National Science Centre as well as consulting and advisory projects for various government agencies and local authorities. His works concerning international trade, technological progress and corporate finance were published in world leading journals, such as 'Marine Policy'.

The global shipping and maritime industry is facing a myriad of challenges and there is ever greater importance to have a sense of clarity on the role of the insurance market. With a rapidly changing market facing new and emerging risks, our expert panel from AXA XL, Swiss Re Corporate Solutions, Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty (AGCS) and S&P Global Market Intelligence address the challenges and discuss practical guides for the insurance market, covering the topics: - Three forces to watch in global maritime: AIS tracking, Russia-Ukraine conflict, congestion issues on ports - Risk & Insurance: How has the risk profile for typical ship operations changed and how is the marine insurance sector responding? - Data Analytics: Running a tight ship through Data and Analytics - How can we continue to unlock value? - ESG: Outlook for the Regulatory Environment and promoting ESG stewardship through the maritime value chain As the global economy continues to grapple with pandemic impacts, supply chain, disruptive technology and climate related risks, the degree to these factors will continue to affect marine insurance and will not abate anytime soon amid setting sail into geopolitical and economic headwinds. **This episode of the podcast is an excerpt from a webinar. Listen to the on-demand webinar: https://ihsmarkit.com/events/navigating-maritime-risks-in-a-sea-of-new-and-emerging-risks-an-insurers-perspective/overview.html Speakers: - Patrizia Kern: Marine Head, Swiss Re Corporate Solutions - Capt. Rahul Khanna: Global Head of Marine Risk Consulting, Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty (AGCS) - Jarek Klimczak: Senior Risk Account Consultant - Marine Risk Management Americas, AXA XL - George Devereese: Risk & Compliance Product Management Director, Maritime, Trade & Supply Chain, S&P Global Market Intelligence - Raphael Zindi: Product Manager - Global Insurance Solutions, S&P Global Market Intelligence

Download the whitepaper: https://ihsmarkit.com/Info/0722/impact-russia-invasion-ukraine-trade-finance-compliance-perspective-ii.html As the Russian war effort directed against Ukraine continues, the latest round of sanctions forces shippers, cargo operators, corporates, banks and insurers to reevaluate their compliance programs to align with global regulation. In this episode, Ravi Amin, S&P Global Market Intelligence's Trade Compliance Subject Matter Experts and the author of the August update whitepaper 'The Impact of Russia's Invasion of Ukraine - A Trade Finance Compliance Perspective II', provides further analysis on the most recent coverage in a podcast, including: - Vessel activity in high-risk areas, including illicit shipping practices - Suspected theft of Ukrainian grain by Russian and Syrian bulk carriers - Russian oil movements - Russian supply chain activity and trends - Dual-use goods and commodities of concern Key Takeaways - As of 25 July, there are 414 vessels in the Crimea Joint War Committee (JWC) high-risk zone, an increase from the 373 vessels seen on 11 April - Of the 414 vessels, 109 vessels have been 'dark' for 7 days or more - From March to June there has been an increase of over 2,000 vessels going dark globally, with the associated average dark time decreasing. During the same time period, there was an approximately 25% increase in vessels engaging in a potential port call whilst dark - Multiple Russian and Syrian bulkers have been dark in areas close to Kerch and Sevastopol in Crimea, after being identified by the U.S. and Ukrainian governments as vessels illicitly carrying stolen grain to Turkey, Syria and parts of Africa - As of 25 July, there are 100 tankers that have loaded crude oil from Russian ports with 77.5M barrels of oil on the water. This is an increase from the previously reported 94 vessels loaded with 75.4M barrels of oil on 10 May - Although India and China remain key importers of Russian oil, the remaining countries making up the top five importers are Italy, Turkey and Netherlands - In the last 3 months, Italy has been the third largest importer of Russian oil behind China and India, receiving on average 700,000 barrels a day - As of 25 July, 22 bulker vessels registered to Greece are in transit from Russia to China, India, Italy, Turkey and Netherlands. In the last 5 months there has been a 150% increase in the number of Greek, Maltese and Cypriot vessel operators carrying Russian oil - Customs data for trade with Russia in May 2022, shows that China remains a key trading partner. There has been an increase in the value of goods traded month on month for the previous two quarters. Mineral Fuels and oils (HS Chapter 27) accounted for over 77% of total value of traded goods in May 2022. There were large notable increases in the month-to-month changes in value of goods being exported from Russia to Switzerland, Ivory Coast, Panama, South Africa and Argentina - The U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) and Financial Crime Enforcement Network (FinCEN) released a joint advisory on 28 June, reiterating the need for vigilance in regard to the shipment of certain 'commodities of concern'. Many of the commodities listed in the BIS and FinCEN document are being exported directly to Russia from countries such as China, India, Turkey, Vietnam, South Korea and Japan Listen to the first update in May: https://soundcloud.com/maritimeandtrade-talk/ep6-the-impact-of-russias-invasion-of-ukraine-a-trade-finance-compliance-perspective Speakers: Ravi Amin - Trade Compliance Subject Matter Expert, Maritime, Trade & Supply Chain, S&P Global Market Intelligence Girish Hanumegowda - Trade Compliance Regional Subject Matter Expert, Maritime, Trade & Supply Chain, S&P Global Market Intelligence