Equity markets cheered a 25 basis point interest rate hike from the FOMC on Wednesday and drove the S&P 500 up more than 1.0% on the news. However, the takeaway from the statement is that the FOMC will continue to hike rates for the foreseeable future. In this light, the good news is bad because the FOMC still pressures the economy. The bad news is that economic pressure is cutting into S&P 500 earnings, which will bring the index and market down.

The caveat for traders is the S&P 500 failed to cross above resistance. The index moved up to but did not cross the 4,150 level and then closed off of the day's high. This is evidence of resistance at a key level and a potential peak for the market. However, a move above 4,150 would not get the market in the clear because another key level of resistance is just above the 4,300 level.

Equity markets reversed course on Tuesday and closed higher for the day ending January on an up note. The S&P 500 gained almost 1.5% at the end of the day on signs the earnings season is better than expected. The caveat is that market action is still below significant resistance and the outlook for earnings is deteriorating. In this light, the next big move in the market is more likely to be down than up and there are more risks than one to be wary of.

Today brings another FOMC policy statement and it could be one for the history books. The market is expecting the FOMC to slow the pace of hikes and indicate the peak of inflation has passed but it might be disappointed. The latest inflation data confirm a peak was hit but give little indication that inflation is truly subsiding in a way that is sustainable. What this means is the FOMC needs to make the market believe interest rates will stay high enough for long enough to ensure that happens.

Equity markets began the week in retreat as investors brace for a big week of earnings, economic data and the FOMC. This is the first hectic week of the earnings season and should see more than 100 reports from S&P 500 companies cross the wire. The takeaway for the season so far is that earnings are weak, and the outlook is souring. The economic data may not help; it should show continued strength in the labor market and rising wages to underpin inflation.

The FOMC meeting is the big news of the week. The Fed will release its policy statement on Wednesday and will most likely shock the market. The committee isn't likely to raise rates faster than 25 bps, but it will most likely give a hawkish statement that leaves little room to doubt their seriousness. Anything less will give the market and the economic reason to accelerate, which could drive inflation to new heights.

Equity markets advanced on Friday and for the week on signs that inflation is cooling. The takeaway from the data is that inflation has cooled versus last year but remains hot in the present and trending above the Fed's target rate. In this light, the PCE price index news is questionable and ultimately not good news for the market. With inflation still hot and FOMC interest rates rising, the outlook for S&P 500 earnings continues to decline.

This week will be another pivotal week for the market, with reports from over 100 S&P 500 companies on deck and the NFP report on Friday. The NFP report is expected to confirm strength in the labor market and wage inflation, which should keep the FOMC on its toes. In regard to the NFP, the news of the week will come on Wednesday when the committed issues its next policy adjustment. The market is expecting a 25 bps hike but could be surprised by a hawkish commentary, if not another 50 basis point interest rate hike.

Equity markets after a round of stronger-than-expected economic data. The Q4 GDP came in at 2.9% and a tenth hotter than expected on strong labor conditions and consumer health. The takeaway is that the underlying strength in the economy is supporting activity among S&P 500 companies but also inflation. The recent downtick in inflation is good news but may not be sustainable given the economic strength. In this light, the market's expectation for only a 25 basis rate hike at the next FOMC meeting may be misplaced.

The entire outlook could change today upon the release of the December PCE price index. The index is expected to confirm the downtick in consumer-level inflation but the data will most likely be mixed. While YOY comparisons will cool, inflation is expected to have accelerated on a month-to-month basis and may come in hot. In this scenario, the odds of a 25 basis point hike will crater and the S&P 500 could fall with it.

Equity markets are bracing for what could be disappointing economic news in the face of rising optimism that inflation has peaked. The data includes the 1st read of Q4 GDP on Thursday and the PCE price index on Friday. Both are expected to reveal underlying economic strength and could come hotter than expected. In this scenario, the fear of rising interest rates would peak again and likely bring the S&P 500 down. If not, the market may be able to extend the rally that began on the 1st of the year and end January on an up note.

The S&P 500 is at a critical juncture. It is above a key channel but below a pivotal resistance level that could continue to cap gains if no other catalysts emerge. The risk that seems to be ignored by many market watchers is that the outlook for S&P 500 earnings is in decline. In this light, the index may move higher in the near term, but any gains are subject to quick reversal as the market bias is still bearish.

Equity markets are showing signs of caution if not topping in the face of a declining outlook for Q4 2022 and 2023 earnings for the S&P 500. The action on Tuesday had the market up from the open but moving sideways from Monday's action with resistance just above the 4,000 level. The caution is due to a raft of economic data that is due out Wednesday through Friday that culminates with the PCE price index on Friday. The index is expected to accelerate on a sequential basis but to decelerate versus last year which is a mixed signal indeed. A slowdown in YOY inflation is good but it doesn't mean much with inflation still running at more than double the Fed's 2.0% target and accelerating in the near term.

News that didn't get much attention on Monday is the Index of Leading Indicators. The Index of Leading Indicators fell by -1.0% and 0.3% faster than expected. This is just shy of the worst reading in the last few years which was last month and points to increasingly weak conditions within the US economy.

Equity markets started the week strong and pushed the S&P 500 up more than 1.0% at the day's high. The takeaway for investors is that gains were capped just above last week's highs and at a level that could be expected to provide stiff resistance. The candle formed has a visible upper shadow confirming the presence of resistance and the possibility this is as high as the index will move for now.

The rally was driven by easing fear of inflation. The decline in the pace of inflation is good news, but conditions are still pressuring the outlook for S&P 500 earnings. With the outlook for S&P 500 earnings in decline, it is almost certain the index will fall. This week is the first real weak of peak earnings reporting season for the 4th quarter, so this outlook could change; the risk is that it won't and may worsen.

Equity markets rallied on Friday but don't read too much into that news. The market rallied, but it failed to reclaim the 4,000 level after confirming resistance earlier in the week. This move is consistent with consolidation within a downtrend and is not unexpected with Q4 earnings season about to crash upon the market. The news so far is that Q4 was better than expected, but the outlook for the 1st half of 2023 is still in decline.

Next week will be a key week for the S&P 500, with economic data and earnings as possible catalysts. On the earnings front, reports from at least 2 dozen S&P 500 companies are on tap, while the economic calendar includes the 1st look at Q4 GDP, the Index of Leading Indicators and the PCE Price Index. Of the 3, the PCE Price Index is the most important, but the takeaway for the week will be what the outlook for 1st half earnings looks like relative to today.

The sell-off in equities deepened on Thursday, helping to confirm a top in the index, but all is not lost. The S&P 500 is still showing support at the short-term 30-day moving average, where it may be able to stage a comeback. The catalyst that could do it is earnings and economic data due next week. The Q4 earnings reporting season hits high gear next week and brings reports from Microsoft, Verizon and Johnson & Johnson, all bellwethers for their respective industries.

The economic calendar is also full next week, but the only report that matters comes out on Friday, and that is the PCE price index. The index should confirm a peak in inflation, and it may fall more than expected. The risk for the market is that inflation may subside but not brighten the outlook for 2023 and cap any gains that may form. The takeaway is the consensus figures for forward S&P 500 figures are more important than ever.