The rebound in equities extended to a fifth day on Wednesday and took the S&P 500 to a 1-month high. The move, while bullish, appears to be losing steam however under the deluge of earnings reports. The earnings reports have been coming better than expected but much of the guidance has been weak. There is a chance the index has bottomed but it looks to us like a retest of the recent lows is brewing.

The latest read on Existing Home sales is another negative for the economy. The pace of existing home sales contracted on a month-to-month basis as prices and interest rates leave prospective buyers out of luck. Today's read of the Index of Leading Indicators may paint a different picture but it looks like the economic contraction that began in the 1st quarter is gaining momentum.

Equity markets reversed Monday's decline and moved up to set a new multi-week high on Tuesday despite a round of lackluster earnings reports. While the bulk of S&P 500 companies that have reported are beating their estimates the margin of outperformance is the lowest it's been since well before the pandemic began and the guidance is weak. Names like Johnson & Johnson with heavy exposure to international markets are reporting dollar-related headwinds on top of ongoing supply-chain and inflationary issues. The takeaway is the outlook for earnings in Q3 and Q4 is in decline and will most likely bring the market down with it.

On the economic front, the Housing Starts and Permits data was mixed and points to a slowdown in activity. While the starts figure was better than expected Housing Starts declined from the previous month and permits were weak suggesting the impact of rising rates is already being felt.

Equity markets pulled back more than 1%to start the week as traders and investors brace for the peak of earnings season. There are 73 S&P 500 companies reporting this week including 7 Dow components so the impact on the market could be tremendous. The general expectation is for earnings to beat the consensus but by the smallest margin in years and for the guidance to be weak, a trend that will weigh on the market moving forward. In regard to the outlook for earnings, the outlook for Q2 results ticked up a hair over the past week but consensus estimates for Q3, Q4, the full year 2022, and full year 2023 are all moving lower.

On the economic front, the next big hurdle for the market is the July FOMC meeting. The meeting isn't for two more weeks, however, but it comes before the next read on inflation. After the latest CPI and PPI data, the market should be ready for a 100 basis point rate hike or at least the indication a 100 bps hike is on the way. Between then and now, the most important data point on the calendar is the Index of Leading Indicators and we expect to see a third consecutive month of negative growth.

It?s a rally. The markets are all finished in the green to close the week. The only thing that changed is that an increasing number of experts are beginning to believe that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates more than 75 basis points at their next meeting. And in a week that brought a lot of bad news regarding inflation, investors had to cheer the news that the long-term inflation outlook is at its lowest level in a year.

However, we would caution investors on getting complacent. The market is going to continue to be volatile. Next week, earnings season will begin in earnest. There are still expectations for a profits recession. Several companies have pre-emptively lowered their already lowered guidance.

Some like it hot. But the markets do not. That?s the sentiment of investors after the June PPI number came in at 11.1%. That was hotter than expected. Leading the charge was a 10% increase in energy costs. And that wasn?t the only piece of bad news that investors received. Unemployment claims were at their highest level in eight months.

The issue of the moment is what investors believe about inflation. There is some evidence that ?core? CPI is going down. That could mean producer prices are beginning to ease. On the other hand, consumers are still feeling inflation every time they fill up their cars or shop for groceries.

That sent the market down for the fourth straight day. And that will be the longest losing streak in a month for U.S. stocks. Gold and oil were also down today.

Now that the S&P 500 index is below 3,800, investors will eye the 3,600 level. It?s fair to ask if that?s where the bulls make a stand. If they do, it will despite a lift from the big banks. Earnings from JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley both disappointed.

The June CPI data was worse than investors expected. The year-over-year increase of 9.1% means inflation continues to be at 40-year highs. That number cements expectations for a 75 basis point hike in interest rates later this month. And some analysts now speculate that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 100 basis points when it meets later this month.

f investors didn?t have enough to worry about, they are also looking at the yield curve inversion. This confirms the economy is heading for, or already in, a recession. As you would expect, the market, went deep into the red on all this bad news.

However, as the trading day ended, the markets were well off session lows. The tech-heavy NASDAQ index in particular was showing some strength.

This is because many analysts believe the markets are already pricing in the hot CPI reading. And others believe that after months of head fakes, the economy may finally be seeing peak inflation. Investors will get more information when the June PPI data comes in tomorrow before the market opens.

And now we wait. The markets had a choppy day. But not even Pepsi?s bubbly guidance was enough to keep stocks in positive territory.

Oil was down as concerns over another Covid lockdown in China gain steam. And the yield on the 10-year continues to fall as many investors fly to the relative safety of government bonds. All of this could have to do with the strength of the U.S. dollar. The greenback is having itself a month which is good news if you?re planning a European vacation.

The only thing that seems clear is that investors are bracing for the June CPI data. That comes out on Wednesday before the market opens. The White House and many analysts seem to be conceding that the number will come in hotter than expected. And if it does, a 75 basis point hike by the Federal Reserve later this month will be the least of investor?s concerns.
But what if it the number is in-line with prior expectations? The stock market is already pricing in high inflation. Anything resembling ?less bad? news may be just the tonic the market needs.

It was fun while it lasted. The relief rally that lifted investors? spirits in the shortened trade week ran into a wall of worry. Equities were down with the tech sector seeing the largest declines. But this was an equal opportunity sell-off. Oil, gold, and Bitcoin all were lower as was the yield on the 10-year Treasury note.

It?s likely that investors are expressing their opinion on what they expect from the June CPI and PPI readings. These reports come in the pre-market on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. The consensus is for the CPI to show an 8.8% year-over-year increase with core CPI coming in at 5.8%. Even though those numbers would show the worst may be over in terms of price hikes, tell that to consumers who still lack confidence in this market.
Investors are also anticipating the start of the earnings season.

Many of the major banks will report later this week. And many analysts are already adjusting their price targets to reflect what they expect to be lower guidance.

Equities rebounded last week and closed near the high of the period after the NFP report came in better than expected. The NFP shows job gains were stronger than expected and dispelled some fear of recession but not all. The hourly wages also increased faster than expected and suggest inflation is yet to be tamed.

This week will be a challenging week for the market. On the economic front is the CPI, PPI, and Retail Sales data while on the earnings front reports from the Big Banks and key consumer staples like Pepsico and Conagra Brands. The takeaway from them all will be the outlook for the second half and how inflation will impact earnings growth. We're expecting the guidance to be weak, spark a round of downward revisions to earnings, and bring the S&P 500 down to a new low but we could be wrong. If the guidance for 2nd half earnings begins to brighten, the S&P 500 could begin to put in a real bottom.

Equity markets rebounded for another day on Thursday as traders gear up for the Q2 earnings reporting season. The peak of the season begins next week with reports from the big banks and the news is expected to be dismal. At best, the banks will report tepid growth with a high likelihood of earnings contraction. The contraction will be due in large part to increased credit reserves in the face of an oncoming recession, the question is how big will the build-up be?

Friday action will be dominated by the NFP report which is expected to show a slowdown in job gains. The question here regards wages and how fast earnings are growing? While good for the average new job taker the persistent increase in labor costs is bad news for businesses and consumers. Next week, investors will have a wave of economic data to wade through including the CPI for June and Retail Sales.