Equity markets held steady for a third-straight trading day despite the release of the FOMC minutes. In the minutes, the FOMC indicated both the potential for a "more restrictive" policy and the negative impacts of the same. The takeaway is that, if the pace of inflation does not subside appreciably, the FOMC could enact another or possibly two more 75 basis point interest rate hikes before the end of the year.

The next week of trading days will be tough for the market. Between economic data and the onset of the Q2 earnings reporting season, there are a handful of catalysts capable of moving the market lower. The first and possibly least important is the NFP data due on Friday. That will be compounded the next week, however, with both the CPI and PPI reports as well as the Retail Sales figures. In our view, investors should expect CPI and PPI to trend at or near their current levels and retail sales to fall on a YOY basis, and possibly at a faster pace than last month.

Equity markets took a small tumble on Monday falling nearly 2.0% at the low of the day but the S&P 500 managed to claw back the loss by the end of the session. The move was sparked by a growing fear of recession that spilled over into the energy markets. The price of oil fell more than 10% on fear the demand for energy would plummet in the wake of economic contraction and caused a similar decline in oil stocks. Oil stocks led the selling on Wall Street and fell about 6% for the session despite the fact that supply and demand imbalances remain skewed in favor of higher prices.

The impact of high oil prices on consumer spending, profit margin, and corporate earnings will soon be known. The peak of the Q2 earnings reporting season begins next week and could reinvigorate bearish sentiment. The expectation is for margin to contract relative to last year and for earnings growth to be tepid. The risk for the market, however, lay in the guidance due to an expectation for economic improvement in the 2nd half. If the guidance points to ongoing issues the S&P 500 will most likely fall to a new low.

The equities markets hit a bottom at the end of last week and may move higher this week but investors are urged to caution. The rebound, if one develops, will be the result of light trading volume during a holiday week and may set the market up for a big fall next week. Next week is the first of the Q2 peak earnings reporting season and it may bring bad news. The first important reports will come from the banking sector which should give insights into the health of the consumer. If consumer trends within the financial sector weaken we can only expect the same elsewhere in the economy.

The hurdle for the market this week will come on Friday with the June non-farm payroll report. The report is expected to show a slow-down in hiring coupled with another strong increase in wages that will up the ante in regard to the FOMC. The FOMC is expected to hike rates at an economy-crushing rate over the next two meetings and their pace could be increased if the inflation data continues to come in strong.

The rebound in equities came to an end last week when the market hit a key resistance point at the 30-day moving average. The action confirms short-term traders are still bearish and in control of a market gearing up for bad news. The bad news could begin this week with the NFP report but the real risk is in the earnings outlook. The peak of the Q2 earnings reporting season begins next week and will likely result in a massive downgrade to the 2nd half outlook. In this scenario, we are expecting the S&P 500 to move down to 3,400 or lower.

What the market fears is a recession and the odds of a major recession shot to new highs last week. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking tool fell to -1.0% and predicts the US is already in a mild recession. Based on the fact the Q1 figures were also revised lower last week we think the 2nd quarter GDP could be below 2.0%.

Equities slipped on Wednesday following a mad dash for the exits on Tuesday. The S&P 500 fell about 0.25% at the low of the day on fears of slowing economic activity and an earnings recession that could begin as soon as the current quarter. While several reports have come in better than expected the strength is isolated and the signs of economic headwinds are growing. If this trend continues it could lead to a significant revision to the 2nd half outlook that drives the market even lower and that is not the only risk. The PCE price index is expected to come in hot and increase the odds not only of aggressive FOMC action but a major recession as well.

In regards to stocks, the defensive Consumer Staples stock General Mills was among the market's leaders on Wednesday. The stock represents not only a value to investors but a high yield that is backed upped by results. General Mills' 2nd quarter earnings were better than expected and came with an increase in guidance that we think will be echoed across the sector.

Equities slipped on Wednesday following a mad dash for the exits on Tuesday. The S&P 500 fell about 0.25% at the low of the day on fears of slowing economic activity and an earnings recession that could begin as soon as the current quarter. While several reports have come in better than expected the strength is isolated and the signs of economic headwinds are growing. If this trend continues it could lead to a significant revision to the 2nd half outlook that drives the market even lower and that is not the only risk. The PCE price index is expected to come in hot and increase the odds not only of aggressive FOMC action but a major recession as well.

In regards to stocks, the defensive Consumer Staples stock General Mills was among the market's leaders on Wednesday. The stock represents not only a value to investors but a high yield that is backed upped by results. General Mills' 2nd quarter earnings were better than expected and came with an increase in guidance that we think will be echoed across the sector.

The rebound in equity markets reversed course on Tuesday with the S&P 500 falling more than 2.0% at the low of the session. The move comes on growing fears of margin compression in Q2 and beyond that will result in downward revisions to earnings. Looking at the market from the perspective of earnings, the S&P 500 is valued on the expectation of future earnings power which means a downtrend in EPS outlook will result in a downtrending market. In that light, Tuesday's decline looks like a trend following movement and one that could result in a new low very soon.

The next catalyst for the market, other than unexpected news, will be the PCE price index on Thursday. Even if the index were to cool or even decline the outlook for inflation remains robust. Without some change to the fundamental outlook, the FOMC should be expected to hike rates by 75 basis points at both of the next two meetings.

The rebound in equities faltered on Monday and for good reasons. Not only is there a key read on inflation due out at the end of the week but the price of oil is rebounding. The price for WTI gained more than 2.5% at the height of the session to top $111.75 on its way back to the short-term moving average at $113.37. If the market gets above that level we see the price of WTI moving up to retest and possibly set a new all-time high and drive inflation to new levels. In regards to inflation, the PCE price index is due out on Thursday and it is expected to be hot. The core PCE is expected to accelerate a tenth to 0.4% on a month-to-month basis and drive the YOY gain to over 5.0% to put even more pressure on the FOMC to act.

The latest read on the FOMC is that a 75 basis point interest rate hike will come in July and another one is likely in August. This will put rates at 3.0% to 3.25% by the middle of summer versus the end of the year as was predicted just a month ago. If the PCE data is hotter than expected it is likely the FOMC will increases rates at an even more aggressive pace and potentially throw the economy into a lengthy recession.

The equities markets began to rebound last week but investors are urged not to read too much into the move. The move is due more to a lack of news than a change in fundamentals and will likely result in another selling opportunity as the Q2 earnings reporting season draws near. The first major reports of the season are already in but the peak of the cycle won't come for two more weeks when the Big Banks report. Between now and then, however, is a major economic hurdle in the form of the PCE price index and it is expected to be a hot one. If the market can not rationalize the data the major indices could easily reverse last week's gains.

Turning to the chart, the S&P 500 closed the week below a major resistance target near 3,950. This target is coincident with the short-term EMA and the mid-point of a downsloping channel and it could easily cap gains in the near to short-term. If the market can not get above this level, it may not matter how cool the PCE price index or hot the earnings turn out to be.

The rally in equities began to fizzle out on Thursday following another day of commentary from the Fed. Fed Chair Jerome Powell completed the second day of testimony on Capitol Hill, raising the fear of recession once again. In his comments, he says a recession is possible although the evidence suggests a recession is already underway. The textbook definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of tepid or negative GDP growth and we've already logged one negative quarter this year. Based on the latest reading of the Leading Indicators, the 2nd quarter GDP will most likely be negative as well.

The next big hurdle for the market will come next week with the PCE price index. The index should moderate on a month-to-month and YOY basis but there is no guarantee it will. The most likely scenario is that month-to-month inflation moderated slightly but YOY gains are still robust and will cement the need for aggressive 75 basis point rate hikes from the FOMC.