Equities climbed again on Wednesday with the S&P 500 gaining roughly 1.0% at the high of the session. The move comes despite a much weaker than expected labor market report from ADP that shows a loss of 300,000 jobs in January versus the expected gain of 150,000 new jobs and raises serious questions about the economy. Labor markets are strong and demand for employees is high but if those jobs aren't filled the U.S. economy will have little hope of producing true economic expansion. As it is now, what expansion we have is more to do with inflation than anything else.

Now, all eyes are on the NFP report due out on Friday. The report was expected to show a slowdown in hiring before the ADP report came out, now the analysts are rethinking their estimates with the expectation job creation will be slower than first thought. A weak figure will not set a trend but it will create another brick for the wall of worry.

Equities continued their rebound on Tuesday with the S&P 500 up about three-quarters of one percent by the end of the day. The rebound may be losing steam, however, because the move was small relative to the prior two sessions and faces stiff resistance at the short-term moving average. If the S&P 500 index can not get back above the 30-day moving average within the next few days to a week the market could be in for a retest of the recent lows. That retest may be caused by earnings, this week more than 20% of the index reports for the Q4 period, and so far the reports have not been inspiring. At best, consensus estimates are being beaten but the outlook for Q1 and Q2 2022 earnings growth is dimming.

The economic data is not helping with the earnings picture. The data is expansionary but the bulk of Tuesday's report revealed ongoing labor shortages and rising labor costs which are underpinning inflation. The non-farm jobs report is due out on Friday and is expected to show more of the same. The consensus estimate is a mere 166,000 net new jobs and a dramatic slow down from the previous few months.

Equities ended a sour January on an up note with the S&P 500 rising more than 1.75% at the highs of the session. The move was led by a resurgence in tech sentiment led by Apple. Apple's better-than-expected earnings report and comments on the supply chain have given the market a second wind despite the rising threat of inflation. The odds of a rate hike in March are at 100% with a rising chance of two hikes by April. Assuming this week's NFP data is at least consistent with recent trends, the market needs to brace for a 50 basis point hike in March and maybe another one in April.

This week will be all about earings despite the NFP on Friday. This is the busiest week of the Q4 reporting season to date and promises to bring reports from more than 20% of the index and more than enough to cause no small amount of volatility. If the reports continue to come in as they have, the market should brace for another spike in volatility if not a downturn in market prices. While Q4 earnings are better than expected the outlook for Q1 2022 is dimming.

The market sell-off deepened last week and may worsen in the weeks to come if the outlook for earnings doesn't improve. While the Q4 season is unfolding with better than expected earnings for most S&P 500 companies the margin of outperformance is the smallest it's been in two years and getting smaller. By all accounts, inflation is still on the rise and will cut into earnings in the calendar and fiscal 2022 despite higher realized prices for most end-products. What this means for the market is a reset of value and a shift from growth to dividends.

This week will bring the monthly NFP report as well as some key reads on manufacturing and housing. The bulk of the data is expected to support ongoing economic expansion but at a slower pace than in previous months. If the data is weaker than expected or shows a growing impact from inflation, it could help drive equity prices lower.

The slide continued on Wall Street Thursday with the major indices reversing early gains and posting losses for the day. The move was driven by better than expected GDP numbers early in the session but fear of rising inflation capped the gains and caused the late-day selling. As good as the GDP figures were they are rear-looking and ultimately underpin the need for aggressive FOMC rate hikes. The S&P finished the session near the lows of the day and poised to move lower should the PCE Price Index come in hot today.

Next week brings another round of earnings, the busiest of the reporting season so far, and the monthly read of the NFP data. The NFP should show another substantial increase in employment, a downtick in unemployment, and rising wages which also point to the need for a rate hike from the FOMC. The market is still expecting a single hike in March but there is risk of two or more hikes with inflation running as hot as it is.

Equities tried to rebound on Wednesday ahead of the Fed meeting but the move didn't get very far. The gains were capped by the FOMC statement and press conference in which Fed Chief Jerome Powell indicated rate hikes would begin very soon. The market took the news to mean the first rate hike will come in March and that it might be larger than previously estimated. The CME's Fedwatch Tool shows a 100% chance of rate hike in March with a growing chance of two 25 basis point hikes at once.

Turning to the indices, the S&P 500 fell almost a full percentage point at the low of the session after climbing the same amount earlier in the day. The move confirms resistance at the key 200-day moving average and at a lower level than previous support. This is evidence of increasing bearish momentum and could lead the market down another 5% to 10% with ease.

Volatility continues to rule on Wall Street with the S&P 500 reversing course again on Tuesday and heading lower. The broad market index fell more than 2.0% at the low of the session as traders brace for the FOMC statement due out later today. The statement is not expected to bring a change of policy but could further strengthen the hawkish stance taken by the FOMC in recent months.

The risk for the market now is the FOMC will try to catch up with the economy and front-run inflation. With the PCE price index coming out on Friday, the risk for them is they won?t sound hawkish enough with inflation still on the rise and accelerating on a year-over-year basis. The takeaway for investors is the economy is still hot, as long as the Fed doesn?t stall it out the outlook for interest rates hikes spans years. Between now and then any pullback in stock market prices is going to be a buying opportunity.

The Wall Street sell-off intensified on Monday with the S&P 500 down more than 3.5% at the low of the day. The move was driven by the rising fear of inflation and economic slowing in the face of growing numbers of COVID-19 cases worldwide. High growth tech stocks led the decline, pushing the NASDAQ deeper into correction territory and the S&P 500 below the -10% mark.
The risk for the market now is a much deeper correction. With the S&P 500 down more than 10% and testing support at the October 2021 lows, there is a risk the move could go to a full 20%. In that scenario, the S&P 500 would still be well above the long-term trend and at risk of falling even further. At best, investors should brace for a rocky and possibly a range-bound year of trading in 2022.

The selling intensified on Wall Street last week as earnings come into sharp focus. While the bulk of S&P 500 companies are reporting better than expected the outlook is weakening under the strain of inflation and supply chain hurdles. With the index down more than 7.0% from its recent high, it looks like the broad market is in for at least a 10% correction if not more. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite is already down more than 10% and heading lower.

This week could seal the deal on a major market correction. Not only is the FOMC expected to be hawkish with its statements but there are key reads on consumer confidence, housing, business spending, GDP, and consumer level inflation as well as dozens of earnings reports from S&P 500 companies.

Equities tried to bounce back on Thursday but investors shouldn?t read too much into the news. The S&P 500 gave up the gains in the final hour of trading and closed with a loss of 1.1%. The best the market can hope for now is for a sideways movement to begin as we enter the peak of the Q4 earnings cycle but we are not hopeful. While reports are coming in better than expected the outperformance has been marginal and reflects the two-edged sword of inflation: Inflation is boosting revenue is hurting profitability.

Next week will be a make-or-break moment for the S&P 500. If the index can maintain support above 4,500 the odds of a major correction will diminish greatly. As it is, the index is on track to put in at least a 5% correction and as much as a 6% correction before finding support. If the market falls below 4,500 however, a move down to the 4,300 level becomes very likely.