Markets were mixed on Wednesday, moving first lower on fears of inflation and then higher after the FOMC minutes showed the committee ready to raise interest rates and begin shrinking its balance soon. What the minutes did not show was the possibility of two 25 basis point hikes at the March meeting as the most recent data has suggested. While the market reacted favorably to the news, traders and investors are warned not to read too much into the minutes or the market's reaction because the stock market correction is not yet over.

In other news, the Retail Sales figures for January were much better than expected and show sales up more than 3.0% over last year. The takeaway, however, is that consumer-level inflation is running at a near 10% pace YOY which means the gains in sales are nothing more than price increases. The good news is that inflation is expected to tame in the second half and that should take some of the pressure off of the consumer.

Equities rebounded on Tuesday after Russian President Vladimir Putin withdrew some of his troops from the Ukrainian border. The news was met with relief tensions seemed to be subsiding but the risk remains high in the region. It is doubtful Putin has given up on his hopes for taking Ukraine, we shall see.

The move in equities also comes despite some much hotter than expected inflation data. The Producer Price Index rose 1.0% in January, twice the expectation, with YOY gains approaching 10.0%. The news adds to the expectation of aggressive FOMC interest rate action but was shrugged off by the market. While the inflation data points at aggressive Fed action it also points to a hot economy and one not likely slowed by a few 25 basis points rate hikes. The risk for the economy now is that rising rates are going to add to inflationary pressures.

Equities retreated on Monday, extending the sell-off that began last week in the wake of the CPI report. The selling is driven in part by fears of rising inflation, in part by fears of FOMC activity after so long without, and in part by geopolitical fear centered on Russia and Ukraine. The threat of war could destabilize the already overstrained global supply chain but it looks like the powers-that-be will continue to talk, for now, while Putin slowly builds his forces along the border.

This week, the PPI data will be in sharp focus as it is expected to accelerate on a month-to-month basis. The consensus is for producer level prices to rise 0.5% on top of the previous month's 0.2% and put YOY increases even closer to double-digits. The risk for the market is that PPI will come in above consensus and increase the expectations for a 50 basis point interest rate hike at the March FOMC meeting.

The market correction took on a new tone last week after a much hotter than expected CPI report. The consumer price index rose by 0.6% from last month and 7.5% from last year to set the fastest pace of price increases in four decades. The news compounds other data that point to aggressive interest rate hikes from the FOMC. The odds of at least two 25 basis point hikes have risen to near 75% for the March meeting, up significantly from an expectation of no rate hikes in March just a month or two ago.

This week will bring a raft of economic data including retail sales and the PPI. Retail sales are expected to increase on a YOY basis but much if not all of the increase will be due to inflation. The risk is that consumer activity is on the decline due to rising prices and may come in short of expectations. If the PPI data is hot as well it will only increase the outlook for inflation, FOMC interest rate hikes, and worsen the outlook for corporation earnings power.

The rebound in equities reversed course on Thursday following some hotter than expected inflation data. The CPI reading for January shows prices advanced 0.6% for the month on a headline and core basis, or 0.2% hotter than expected on both counts. The month-to-month gains were accompanied by acceleration on a YOY basis as well with core CPI up 6.0% from last year. This marks the 10th month of hot and rising inflation and puts increased pressure on the FOMC to act and act quickly. Fed President James Bullard came out with comments in the wake of data saying he favored 100 basis points of interest rate increases by June including a 50 basis point increase to start.

The SPX fell on the news, confirming resistance at the short-term moving average and the most recent peak in prices, putting the market in danger of a retest of the recent lows. If the market is not able to hold those lows a much deeper correction, perhaps as much as 10% more, could come within weeks.

The rebound in equities accelerated again on Wednesday but traders are cautioned not to become complacent. The move is on the heels of better than expected earnings from some key S&P 500 companies but the specter of inflation is still looming. The CPI data is due out today and it is expected to be positive if not an acceleration from the previous month. The risk for the market is the data will not be consistent with the FOMC's idea that inflation is peaking and will up the ante in terms of interest rate hikes. The odds of at least one 25 basis point hike at the next FOMC are above 100% and the odds for two 25 basis point hikes are growing.

In stock news, tech stocks led the rally on Wednesday with names like Meta, Shopify, and Etsy leading the charge. Rebound plays were also in favor and should help lift the market back up to the recently set all-time high. If the market can set a new all-time high it will likely rally into the spring and early summer barring other developments in the economy.

Equities tread water on Tuesday with the S&P 500 holding within a tight range consistent with the previous trading session. The move is on the back of better than expected earnings and positive economic data but the market is cautious. With the CPI data due out on Thursday there is a risk for another inflation-driven sell-off. The CPI is expected to moderate on a month-to-month basis but accelerate on a YOY basis and the data could be hot.

The danger that no one seems to be talking about is the outlook for earnings. There are signs of easing within the supply chain but they are localized and not seen across the broad market. This means earnings growth in the 1st quarter of 2022 will be impaired by rising costs for freight and systemic shortages and that is weighing on the outlook for earnings growth. If there is one thing that can guarantee a market correction is it's a downtrend in the outlook for forward earnings growth.

Equities rebounded last week and looks like they might keep moving higher. The move was aided by expansionary economic data and earnings but there are still risks for the market. The NFP report was surprisingly strong and coupled with robust wage increases that should give additional impetus to the FOMC. The chatter now is to expect a 50 basis point rate hike in March and even more aggressive rate hikes later in the year.

This week will be all about the CPI data. The earnings season is still underway but there will be few surprises now, with more than 50% of the S&P 500 having already reported. The CPI is expected to expand but at a slower rate than the previous month but there is risk the YOY figures could be hot and provide even more reason for the Fed to hike rates. In that scenario, an overly aggressive Fed could cause the economy to stall.

Equities rebounded last week and looks like they might keep moving higher. The move was aided by expansionary economic data and earnings but there are still risks for the market. The NFP report was surprisingly strong and coupled with robust wage increases that should give additional impetus to the FOMC. The chatter now is to expect a 50 basis point rate hike in March and even more aggressive rate hikes later in the year.

This week will be all about the CPI data. The earnings season is still underway but there will be few surprises now, with more than 50% of the S&P 500 having already reported. The CPI is expected to expand but at a slower rate than the previous month but there is risk the YOY figures could be hot and provide even more reason for the Fed to hike rates. In that scenario, an overly aggressive Fed could cause the economy to stall.

Equities resumed their decline on Thursday following weaker than expected results from FAANG stocks Facebook and Amazon. Facebook led the fall with a 20% plunge that puts the stock deep into correction territory. The biggest takeaway from the reports is that COVID-19 induced tailwinds are no longer blowing. The S&P 500 fell nearly 2.5% at the end of the session with the NASDAQ Composite down 3.75%.

Friday's trading will be all about the Non-Farm Payroll report. The report is expected to be much weaker than first speculated due to the weak ADP report on Wednesday. If the report confirms the market's fears the selloff could deepen. The best-case scenario is a retest of the recent lows followed by another rebound. The Worst-case is that support will fail and the market will enter a prolonged contraction that could wipe another 20% of value off the books.