MarketBuzz

As the year end is nearing, global market signals appear mixed for the final trading session. U.S. indices witnessed a flat close following a range-bound session, offering a neutral perspective.

However, positive indicators emanate from the crude market, with both Brent and WTI experiencing a 3% overnight dip due to a further easing of tensions in the Red Sea.

In the Indian markets, it was yet another day of record-breaking performances, with Sensex, Nifty 50, and Nifty Bank achieving fresh intraday highs. Notably, Nifty breached the 21,800 mark for the first time, underscoring the bullish sentiment.

While Sensex approaches the 23,000 milestone, midcaps exhibit a relatively subdued performance, contributing to a market breadth slightly favoring declines with an advance-decline ratio of 3 to 4.

Institutional activities reflect continued confidence, with Foreign Investors (FIs) displaying a buying spree despite elevated levels. Yesterday, FIs made purchases amounting to INR 4359 crore, while Domestic Investors (DIs) reported sales of only INR 137 crore. Today's pre-market data for Nifty indicates a modest gain, poised to mark yet another record high.

Investors are advised to keep a close eye on auto companies, anticipating reactions ahead of their monthly sales figures. Additionally, oil marketing companies are in focus, driven by two key factors – the recent decline in crude prices and speculations surrounding potential price cuts.

On Wednesday, the U.S. stock market experienced a lackluster day with minimal trading volumes, contrasting sharply with India's bullish performance that led to record highs.

The U.S. market closed with marginal gains, setting the stage for its ninth consecutive week of positive momentum.

Major U.S. indices achieved fresh 52-week highs, registering gains ranging from 0.1% to 0.3%. Conversely, India's market saw another day of record highs, propelled by IT and banking stocks. The Nifty surged past 21,600, while the Nifty Bank reached an unprecedented close, largely attributed to HDFC Bank, contributing nearly 50% to its gains.

Despite the upbeat equity movement, Wednesday's market ascent coincided with a notable uptick in India's volatility index, rising 6% to reach its highest level since March. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) played a significant role in this dynamic, with net purchases of nearly ₹3,000 crores, overshadowing the sales figure for Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) at ₹200 crores.

As the December series approaches its expiry day, the GIF Nifty indicates a potential record high, currently up by more than 70 points. However, the commodities market experienced an opposing trend, with Brent and WTI Crude reversing previous gains and slipping by 2%. Overnight reports suggest that major logistics companies have resumed shipping via the Red Sea.

Investors are advised to keep a close eye on stocks linked to Nifty Dividend Opportunities 50 (ND C's) for potential inflows (e.g., Bajaj Finance and HDFC Bank) and outflows (e.g., Adani Enterprises, L&T, and Adani Ports) as the market dynamics continue to evolve.

In a positive start to the last week of 2023, the US market witnessed a rise despite low trading volumes. Major averages closed the Tuesday session with gains of half a percent each, and small-cap indices outperformed, recording a gain of more than 1%.

The NASDAQ, dominated by tech stocks, hit a record high, while the broad-market index S&P is within striking distance of its record level.

Banking heavyweights such as HDFC and Kotak Bank, along with Reliance Industries, played a crucial role in supporting the Nifty, helping it hold levels above 21,400. With Tuesday's gains, front-liners are now 1% away from their record levels earlier in the month.

In the commodities market, the energy sector emerged as one of the best performers amid ongoing tensions in the Red Sea.

Both Brent and WTI crude oil surged nearly 3% each to hit their highest levels in the last three weeks. Gold also saw an upward move, tracking a lower dollar and 10-year yield, trading just below the $2100 per ounce mark.

Sectors to watch include metals, with stocks like Hindalco, Nalco, and Vedanta in focus as aluminum gained more than 3% overnight. Additionally, Adani Group stocks are in the spotlight due to fundraising plans.

As we step into a new week after the weekend, global markets remain stable, setting the stage for a positive start. The Friday market close reflected a positive trend, with NASDAQ and S&P recording gains. Dow Jones experienced a slight dip, but the small-cap index stood out with a 2.5% surge in the closing hour, finishing at the day's peak.

U.S. markets extended their winning streak for the eighth consecutive week, underscoring continued investor confidence. Back home, the Indian market showed resilience amid volatility, particularly in mid and small-cap stocks. The GIF Nifty suggests a positive opening today, although the focus remains on sustainability, given the expected low trading volumes leading up to year-end.

In the commodity space, crude oil is navigating a range amidst tensions in the Red Sea, with Brent at around $80 and WTI dynamics near $74 per barrel. Precious metals continue their upward trajectory, with gold touching a record high and approaching $2100 per ounce.

In terms of institutional activities, FI net sellers on Friday amounted to INR 2829 crore, while DI net buyers acquired shares worth INR 2167 crore.

Looking ahead, key stocks are in focus, including Infosys following the termination of a global deal exceeding $1.5 billion, VIP Industries amidst CEO succession concerns, and liquor stocks gaining traction with the Gujarat government permitting liquor consumption at Gift City. As the week progresses, market participants remain cautious amid year-end uncertainties.

In a turnaround, equity markets have displayed a significant recovery after the apprehensions caused by a steep selloff on Wednesday. Both the Indian market, especially post 1 p.m., and the US markets experienced a challenging period during the sell-off. However, Thursday witnessed a substantial rebound in both markets, marking the eighth consecutive week of gains for the US markets. The NASDAQ surged by 1.2%, contributing to the positive trend.

Crude oil prices experienced a marginal decline on Thursday, attributed to Angola's decision to exit the OPEC. Brent now hovers below the $80 per barrel mark. In the Indian market, Wednesday's sharp decline prompted a cautious start, but markets rebounded, recovering half of the losses incurred on Wednesday. Notably, heavyweight banks such as HDFC Bank and SBI played a pivotal role in aiding the recovery, emerging as top gainers.

The mid-cap and small-cap indices also showcased a robust recovery, posting gains of over 1% in just two days. Furthermore, diagnostic companies stood out among the top performer. The overall positive sentiment in global markets, as indicated by Asian markets and the GIFT NIFTY, suggests a favorable outlook for Indian markets in the coming sessions.

Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open flat on December 21 after closing a percent lower in the previous session, which led to the worst session in nine months.

India's GIFT Nifty was trading at 21,143 as of 8:15 am, indicating the NSE Nifty 50 is likely to open near its previous close of 21,150.15.

In the previous session, the Nifty and BSE Sensex shed 1.41% and 1.30%, respectively, as selling pressure emerged across public sector banks, information technology, energy and metal stocks after a recent rally. Despite the fall, however, the Nifty is still up 5.05% in December so far, and is likely to post its second-best month in 2023.

On the global front, Asian shares opened lower after a drop in Wall Street equities overnight ahead of US third quarter growth data on December 21 and a key inflation reading on December 22.

Stocks to track in the domestic market include Cochin Shipyard, Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders, Zee Entertainment Enterprises and Astrazeneca Pharma India.

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Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely headed for a flat opening on December 19, as the global rally triggered by hopes of US interest rate cuts in 2024 has slowed down.

India's GIFT Nifty was down 0.04% from its overnight close at 21,478 as of 8:09 am IST, indicating the Nifty 50 is likely to open around its December 18 close of 21,418.65.

The Nifty and Sensex declined in the previous session after rallying to record highs for most of this month. So far in December, the Nifty has risen 6.38% and is on course for its best month since July 2022.

Meanwhile, in the overnight session, Wall Street equities closed marginally higher. In morning trade, Asian shares steadied as traders' focus turned on Japan's central bank and whether it might edge further away from its ultra-easy monetary policy.

Oil prices rose for a second session, as attacks by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi militants on ships in the Red Sea disrupted maritime trade.

Stocks to watch: Vedanta, Sun Pharma, PSU Banks, OMCs, Devyani International, PNC Infra, Kaynes Tech and more

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Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to make a subdued start on December 18, after record breaking rally across equity markets worldwide.

The handover has been strong from the US markets. However, Asian markets were subdued ahead of Japan's monetary policy decision later in the day, indicating a flat start for the Indian market.

India's GIFT Nifty was up 0.15% from its overnight close at 21,487 as of 8:15 a.m. IST, indicating that the Nifty 50 is likely to open around its Friday closing level of 21,456.65.

The Nifty and Sensex have gained about 6.6% so far this month, and are on course to their best monthly performance in 2023, with the Nifty closing at record highs in nine of 11 sessions.

Besides the easing global interest rate outlook, the rally has been driven by the Reserve Bank of India raising its fiscal 2024 growth forecast, return of foreign inflows, sustained domestic inflows, and moderation in oil prices.

Stocks to watch: Tata Power, Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders, PB Fintech, Zee Entertainment Enterprises among others

Tune in to the Marketbuzz Podcast for more cues 

Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are set to scale new highs on December 15 after a continued massive rally in global stocks on elevated bets of a U.S. rate cut by March 2024 after the Federal Reserve's policy meeting earlier this week.

India's GIFT Nifty was down 0.10% from its overnight close at 21,420.50, as of 8:14 a.m. IST, indicating that the Nifty 50 will open higher than its Thursday closing level of 21,182.70.

Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to scale new highs in the trading session of December 14, tracking global peers. The rally shall come after the US Federal Reserve flagged the end of its tightening cycle and struck a dovish tone on the interest rate outlook.

India's GIFT Nifty was down 0.07% from its previous close at 21,227.50, as of 8:10 a.m., which implies the Nifty 50 will open higher than its last closing level of 20,926.35.

In the overnight session, Wall Street equities surged with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 1.4% to notch a record closing high. Asian stocks too followed US market shares and broadly rallied in morning trade on December 14.

In the commodity space, oil prices rose in early Asian trade with Brent futures hovering around the $74 a barrel mark.

The movements come after the Fed last night acknowledged that it is making "real progress" in easing inflation on the US, while maintaining a rate pause and adding that hikes were "not the base case anymore". Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed is aware of the risks of keeping rates higher for too long and lowering them too late, at a press conference after the policy decision, bolstering expectations of a rate cut in early 2024.

Stocks to track in the domestic market: State Bank of India, NBCC, RBL Bank, Biocon, IndiGo and more

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