MarketBuzz

India’s benchmark indices — Sensex and Nifty 50 — are likely headed for a subdued start on June 15, as SGX Nifty indicated this morning after the US Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged.

Also, as expected, the Fed paused but was a hawkish pause. It seems to be undecided about July but has indicated that there are more hikes ahead. Meanwhile, the US markets are a closed mix.

There are other global queues too to watch out for. For example, China has cut its key policy rates for the first time in 10 months because the economic data not meeting expectations.

New Zealand, on the other hand, slipped into a technical recession. GDP was down 0.1 percent in the March 2023 quarter and the previous quarter was revised lower as well.

Asian markets were mixed at the time of recording the podcast.

In the domestic market, the Nifty 50 scaled above 18,750 for the second consecutive day.

A couple of key factors to watch out for include the Bank Nifty considering that it underperformed in yesterday's trading session and metal stocks considering China factors.

Tune in to the Marketbuzz Podcast for more cues and news ahead of today’s session

It was a good day of trade on Tuesday, ahead of the big cues. The Nifty scaled 18,700. The India CPI, steady global cues, lower crude prices, aided sentiments. The US inflation data came in at 4 percent for May, which is at an over two-year low, which also boosted sentiment in terms of what the US Fed could do.

Hence, US markets closed higher, Asian markets are largely higher at this point and the SGX Nifty is indicating a bump up as well. Well, all will now be on the US fed decision today. The expectation is that it will skip a rate hike. The Street is anticipating a 90 percent chance that the US Fed will not hike rates. The US Fed has implemented 10 consecutive rate hikes over the past 14 months. Interest rates in the US are now at the highest level in 16 years.

Back home, the broader market out performance will be something that the Street will watch. The midcap index is at a record high. It rallied around 1.8 percent on a week to date basis. The small cap index is up around a 1.5 percent on a week-to-date-basis.

The FIIs have net bought around Rs 1677 crore in Tuesday’s trading session. This is after two consecutive days of selling. The DIIs have net sold around Rs 203 crore.

These are some of the market cues to watch out for today.

Tune in to Marketbuzz Podcast for more news and cues ahead of today’s session

Let’s begin with what the cues were overnight. Wall Street saw a strong close, with Dow Jones ending 0.5 percent up, S&P 500 up almost 1 percent, while the Nasdaq continued to march forward.

Nasdaq was up 1.5 percent, led higher by Apple. After it unveiling the Vision Pro last week, the Apple stock has been on the tear. Yesterday as well it hit a fresh all-time high with the market cap of the tech major nearing almost $3 trillion.

That’s not all, we have a lot of data to watch out for this week. Starting with tonight itself. All eyes will be on the US May inflation data where you're expecting 4 percent inflation in May, which would be an increase of 40.1 percent month-on-month. This is extremely important largely because the US Fed meet outcome is contingent on the way.

The Nifty has been ranged around 18,600-mark.The important part is that we found resistance at levels closer to 18,700, whereas support has come in as low as 18550 itself.

Meanwhile, the FIIs sold for the second day in the cash market on Monday and sold around Rs 627 crore. Domestic institutional investors bought around Rs 1800-odd crore. There is nothing really to worry about, but a trend that we have to monitor closely.

Today is also a Tuesday, which means it is the Nifty financial services expiry today. In the last hour, we will watch out for HDFC twins. Watch out for ICICI Bank and Bajaj Fiserv. These stocks account for the major rate on the financial services index.

The Nifty Bank closed mildly below its 20-day moving average of 43980, so that’s a level we expected to cover in the first hour of trade itself. Whereas the Nifty will find firm support at 18454, which is its 20-day moving average.

In terms of stocks to watch out for, keep an eye out on the oil marketing companies and the oil companies as Brent slipped to $72 overnight. But importantly, watch out for Zee as the SEBI has barred Subhash Chandra and Punit Goenka to hold any key managerial position in the company. Does that change things for the Sony-Zee merger or not? It’s something we'll be watching out for.

Tune in to Marketbuzz Podcast for more news and cues ahead of today’s session

Indian benchmark indices — Sensex and Nifty 50 — are set to open higher on June 12 as rising bets of a rate pause by the US Federal Reserve aided sentiment, ahead of domestic retail inflation data later in the day. India's NSE stock futures listed on the Singapore Exchange were up 0.37 percent at 18,679.50, as of 7:57 am.

On Friday, Wall Street equities closed at new highs for 2023 on rising odds of a rate hike pause by the US central bank in its upcoming meeting on June 14.  Back home, the Indian market closed with minor cuts following what was a range session.

Meanwhile, Brent crude is down for the second consecutive week below $75 per barrel.

Later in the day, India will report its CPI inflation data for the month of May. Last month, the annual retail inflation cooled to an 18-month low in April, below the Reserve Bank of India's upper tolerance level of 6 percent, as food prices softened. Inflation as measured by the annual change in the consumer price index (CPI), eased to 4.70 percent in April from 5.66 percent in the previous month.

Meanwhile, the US CPI data for May is due tomorrow. Another thing to watch out for is the precursor to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on June 13 and 14. According to Reuters, there is a 71 percent chance of a pause in the June FOMC meeting which will be the first time since early 2022.

Last week, the domestic market recorded minor gains and was up for the third straight week. Many stocks are at fresh 52-week highs like Axis Bank, Britannia, IndusInd Bank and Indian Oil Corporation.

Tune in to Marketbuzz Podcast for more news and cues ahead of today’s session

Indian benchmark indices — Sensex and Nifty 50 — are set to open higher on June 9, tracking global peers, as the increased probability of a rate pause from the US central bank lifted sentiment a day after the Reserve Bank of India kept rates unchanged.

The SGX Nifty is suggesting a bit of a positive start for June 9 after yesterday's collapse in the market on the back of the hawkish pause on interest rates by RBI.

Economists say RBI is going to stay on pause and hold rates for longer than what they were expecting earlier. So if earlier, the economists were hoping for a rate cut by the end of November or December 2023, it's now been pushed back by at least two to three months, but it depends on the inflation and growth dynamics. So, the situation continues to remain very fluid.

The reason why the Nifty 50 could see a bit of an uptick in the morning is because global markets are up. In the US, S&P 500 had its best close in 2023, the NASDAQ rallied nearly a percent and initial jobless claims were better than what the street was anticipating at 261,000.

Basically, when jobless claims are higher that means there are more people looking for a job, meaning the market is weak. It is something that the Fed is looking at and wants the labour market to soften. It does give the Fed more reason to be on pause this time around in the upcoming policy meet.

Asian markets, meanwhile, were broadly higher across the board.

Tune in to Marketbuzz Podcast for more news and cues ahead of today’s session

Yesterday, the Nifty broke out. It finally conquered the resistance levels of 18,600 to 18,700 to close significantly higher. This morning, the SGX Nifty is pretty flat. The US markets too had had a mixed session. While Dow Jones was up 0.3 percent, we did see profit taking in NASDAQ. NASDAQ was down 1.3 percent. But the Russell 2000, a smallcap index, saw a rally of 1.8 percent. So the broadening of the US market rally continued and that is a bit of a positive.

But we've got such a big cue, we've got the RBI monetary policy and that decision will be known in around two hours from now.

So the market could take a bit of a wait-and-watch approach before deciding its next move.

So that's why the SGX Nifty is on the flatter side.

In terms of the other big notable cues, everyone's watching out for whether we can go back to our all-time-high levels.

The all-time high level on the Nifty was 18,888.7 hit on December 1, following which markets went into a bit of a corrective zone. Then came the news of Adani and US regional banks and the markets sold off considerably in the February and April.

Since then it has been moving up. In fact, if you remember towards March-end, the Nifty was at a level below 17,000 and the markets have made a spectacular up move over April and May.

But over the last couple of days, it was consolidating within a tight band of 18,400 to 18,600.

On Wednesday, we witnessed the first signs of a breakout. Now, the question is whether we can test our all-time high levels. We're just about 160 points away from that in terms of flows. Both the FIIs and DIIs were buyers in the cash market.

In terms of some stocks you should keep on your radar -- both Tata Motors and Tata Communications -- held their analysts meet or investor day on Wednesday.

Tune in to Marketbuzz Podcast for more news and cues ahead of today’s session

SGX Nifty is indicating a positive start for Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty50.

On Tuesday, Nifty closed closer to the 18,600 level in a late surge. Nifty witnessed quite a bit of weakness. 

Nifty has faced resistance around the 18,600 mark and it has not been able to go ahead and hit or go across the 18,700 level with conviction. 

Talking about overnight markets, US markets were largely flat, with the Dow Jones incidentally closing almost flat and S&P 500 2 percent higher, and Nasdaq was around 0.4 percent up. 

However, the majority of the action lay at the broader end of the US markets with the Russell 2000 index gaining over 2.7 percent in yesterday’s trading session. 

On Wednesday, keep an out for defence names. There is a lot of news flow in terms of memorandums of understanding (MoUs) being signed, the german defence minister visiting. So watch out ofr names such as HAL, shipbuilding companies, etc. All of these stocks have done significantly well in the trading session. 

And the key that markets will be watching out for would be the outcome for the RBI monetary policy.

Tune in to Marketbuzz Podcast for more news and cues ahead of today’s session

The SGX 50 is suggesting a slight down take, a cut of around 10 to 20 points to begin trade with. The reason for that is the US markets have closed with minor cuts. The Dow Jones was down 0.6 percent, the S&P500 ended lower by 0.2 percent. The Nasdaq was down close to about 0.1 percent. So global markets have taken a bit of a breather. There is a pause at the rally and that might reflect in the Indian market.

But separately for the Indian markets, we've been facing some resistance. Now Monday was the fourth instance in the last six trading sessions that the Nifty50 index crossed the mark of 18,600 each day but failed to sustain above those levels. So this 18,062 in fact was the intraday high on the Nifty last week.

This morning, we don't have the global queues to propel us higher.

The big thing to watch out this week is the RBI monetary policy, but that will be known only on Thursday. On the other hand, midcaps have been doing well. Now, the midcap index just was up about 0.14 percent on Monday. It wasn't too much of a gain, but the midcap index was higher for the 11th straight session and it did close at record levels in terms of flows.

Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) bought Rs 1,195 crore in cash. Meanwhile, the foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold Rs 701 crore in cash market in the third consecutive day of selling in the cash market.

In terms of stocks, JK cement has acquired Charlie Cement. BHEL has got a ‘downgrade’ by Nomura. They’ve lowered the rating to a reduced target price brought down to Rs 61 per share. They are concerned about the rising receivables, the debtor days, they believe the recent order winds are aggressive, so the scope of margin recovery could be less than what the street is anticipating.

Tune in to Marketbuzz Podcast for more news and cues ahead of today’s session

The SGX Nifty is suggesting a solid start to begin trade with and that's because the US markets ended with gains of 1 to 2 percent. The Down Jones was up 2.1 percent, the S&P 500 was rallying 1.5 percent, and NASDAQ gaining 1.1 percent. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week of gains for the first time since 2020. The reason for the optimism and the rally in the global markets was one. The non-farm payroll data was stronger than what the street was anticipating, which means the labour data continues to be resilient yet.

The street doesn't think that the fed will continue with its rate hiking cycle. The US Fed will be meeting on June 13 and 14, and the expectations are that it will pause at the upcoming meeting. The reason for the same is because the hourly wages that ticked lower than what the street anticipating and also the unemployment rate also went up.

There was a big outperforming seed in the broader markets last week. So while the lift was volatile, it ended with a gain of just about 10.2 percent oscillating between 18400 to 18700.

In terms of flows on Friday, the domestic investors bought Rs 581 crore, while the foreign investors sold Rs 658 crore. The big event to track this week will be the RBI monetary policy on June 8. 
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In terms of individual stocks, Mankind, Glenmark, SBI Life, among other stocks should be on your radar.

Tune to Marketbuzz Podcast for more news and cues ahead of today’s session

Indian benchmark indices — Sensex and Nifty 50 — will start the June 2 session on the back of strong global cues. As of 8:20 this morning, SGX Nifty on the Singapore Stock Exchange was up 0.4 percent, indicating a positive start for the domestic market.

On June 1, however, markets closed near the day's low as financial heavyweights underperformed, the Nifty Bank ended with a cut of around a percent against a flat close for the Sensex and the Nifty 50, while the mid gaps relatively outperformed.

The big queue globally is that the US debt ceiling has passed the Senate vote in the US.

Markets are now trading at the highest level that we've seen since August Asia is largely in the green.

Crude is off multi-month lows.

Another big queue to watch out for globally would be the US non-farm payroll data. A strong jobs report is likely to fuel expectations of another rate hike by the Fed in June.

Expectations are quite wide for the jobs report this time anywhere between 1.8 percent to 1.95 lakh jobs added in May.

Tune to Marketbuzz Podcast for more news and cues ahead of today’s session