Marketplace Roundtable

With the Fed's balance sheet expanding at an unprecedented rate, inflation concerns have made a comeback among some market watchers on both Wall Street and Main Street. While the monetary supply has increased drastically since the onset of the COVID-19 induced economic crisis, the velocity of money has actually fallen during this period. So what will prevail once the pandemic dust settles - a deflationary or inflationary environment? And how should ETF investors be positioning in the meantime?
Macro specialist Eric Basmajian (EPB Macro Research) rejoins The Marketplace Roundtable Podcast and delivers a master class in current monetary policy dynamics - and how investors can stay one step ahead of the curve.
Show Notes

3:30 - Eric's personal COVID-19 story

7:00 - Stock vs. Bonds (SHY): A tale of two markets - Which is right?

11:30 - The current environment is a deflationary one - here's why

22:30 - Is the US just a generation behind Japan and Europe when it comes to monetary policy and its likely affect on underlying growth?

28:30 - Productive vs. Unproductive debt: Prospects for future growth (KRE) (XLF)

38:30 - What is the theoretical case for inflation once the dust from COVID-19 settles in a few years?

44:15 - What would be the likely outcome if an emerging economy's central bank followed the same playbook as the Fed?

47:00 - Positioning portfolios in the current environment  (SPY), (PDBC), (TLT), (IEI), (SHV), (VXUS) 

1:00:00 - Would you consider a short position in something like (XLE) or (XOP) given the potential economic downside that still exists in the energy sector?

1:07:30 - Are you currently over- or under-weight gold? (GLD)

1:13:45 - How about gold miners? (GDX)

1:16:00 - How do you make sense of the extreme bullish stock market action of the last month or so? (QQQ) (DIA) (IVV) (VOO) 


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We speak with Bram de Haas about how to watch for downside in this environment, and how to navigate market uncertainty.
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We talk with three Marketplace authors about how they are addressing dividend stocks and strategies in the current market. Limelight Alpha Management Partners, author of Top Stocks for Tomorrow, speaks from 1:00-22:15 minute mark; Tariq Dennison, author of Long Run Income, joins us from 22:15-56:15; and The Dividend Guy, author of Dividend Growth Rocks, joins us from 56:15-1:21:15.
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We discuss three different aspects of the fixed income sector - high yield debt, BDCs, and corporate debt - with three Marketplace authors. Jeremy LaKosh joins us from :30 minute mark-24:00, John Yesford, a.k.a. PendragonY, joins from 24:00-49:00, and Donald van Deventer is on from 49:00 - 1:19:00
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We speak with Joseph L. Shaefer of The Investor's Edge (1:00 minute mark-32:30) and ANG Traders (32:30-56:00) about the current market environment, the effect of stimulus, and where the market might go in the coming months (this may not be the real sign we've turned a corner).
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We speak with Lawrence Fuller, author of The Portfolio Architect, about how to orient amidst a low visibility market (:30-19:00 minute mark); D.M. Martins Research, author of Storm-Resistant Growth, about where opportunities might be lurking (19:00-42:30); and Michael Gayed about what time frame investors should be considering for this market and the strange disconnect we have (42:30-1:11:00).
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We speak with Chaim Siegel of Elazar Advisors, LLC, author of Nail Tech Earnings, about how to watch the market's pricing mechanism, as well as the stand-out subsector of video games (1:15 minute mark-22:00); Andres Cardenal, CFA, author of The Data-Driven Investor about how tech deserves its premium and the antifragility of Docusign and Twilio (22:30-49:30); and Michael Wiggins de Oliveira, author of Deep Value Returns, about why he likes Disney and Discovery in the streaming video segment (49:40-1:26:00).
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With the coronavirus outbreak, the spread of COVID-19, and the serious steps governments are taking around the world to contain it, no sector of the market is being untouched. We've been conducting roundtable discussions on Seeking Alpha and individual interviews with authors to hear how they're dealing with the situation, and are collecting those interviews here.
We begin with the real estate investment trust (REIT) sector. We spoke with Dane Bowler on March 27th (1:30 minute mark - 16:30), Julian Lin on March 30th (17:00-33:30), and Brad Thomas on April 2nd (34:00-1:01:00). Each discusses opportunities they are seeing, changes they are making to their strategy, and specific REITs.
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With markets in sell-off mode the world over and few asset classes spared - Oil is below $35/bbl while the S&P 500 is down more than 6% on the day as I write this on Monday March 9, today's conversation with Macro specialist Eric Basmajian is hugely important. Eric is Head of Macro Research at Pervalle Global, a discretionary hedge fund specializing in global macro driven trades across all major asset classes. He first began contributing to Seeking Alpha in 2017, building up a following of more than 12,000 investors and becoming Seeking Alpha’s top contributor in the Economy vertical through his unparalleled analysis of key macro-economic trends - and his ability to turn this analysis into actionable, top-down portfolio advice.
In addition to his role at Pervalle, Eric runs his own Seeking Alpha Marketplace service, EPB Macro Research. In addition to the steady stream of macro analysis subscribers to EPB Macro Research get, they also gain access to EPB’s Model Tactical Asset Allocation and Long-Only Asset Allocation portfolios - 2 low cost, all-ETF portfolios overseen directly by Eric. By combining an asset class mix that includes stocks, bonds, gold and commodities - tilting based on underlying macroeconomic conditions - Eric has created an all-weather portfolio which tamps down risk and volatility while attaining impressive longer term appreciation of capital. And while under normal market conditions that may seem like a less sexy approach, its performance in the current environment makes it all worthwhile. 
Eric joins the Marketplace Roundtable podcast to talk his book.
Show Notes

2:30 - How did you get into your "macro" approach?

8:15 - The current state of the global economy

11:00 - Is the fed funds rate in the right place now?

17:45 - Where do you see the consumer in this economy?

22:00 - Is the lack of corporate earnings recession a positive?

28:00 - Thoughts on tech stocks

34:00 - How do you deal a black swan event like the Coronavirus in portfolio management?

39:15 - Specific take on the Coronavirus

41:15 - How do we deal with underlying economic issues and break the debt cycle?

49:15 - Household savings

51:00 - Portfolio construction process, baseline allocation

58:45 - Are you shifting equity allocations?

1:07:45 - Fixed income... only treasuries?

1:15:00 - What would it take for you to move to TIPS?

1:21:30 - Gold as main commodity exposure

1:26:30 - Any attempts to include other asset classes?


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Steve Wells, aka the Fear & Greed Trader, rejoins the Marketplace Roundtable Podcast to update listeners on his views of markets as reflected in the Savvy Investor service.
Recorded during one of last week's days of heavy selling in global equity markets, Wells conceded the coronavirus is "a real event." In general terms though, the market was due for a pullback and Wells is not overly concerned about the big picture. The long-term bullish trend remains intact.
The key is for investors not to get overly emotional over short term moves -- and moving averages. Only if the S&P 500 were to approach levels around 2940 would there be reasons for concern. (The low in the S&P was around 2954 on Feb. 28).
Wells was on the podcast last summer, where he expressed bullish sentiments especially over Alibaba (BABA), Cisco (CSCO), Google (GOOG, GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN) and others.
He's still bullish on technology, health care, consumer discretionary, "and to some degree financials" and provided some favorite ideas for 2020.
Contents:

2:45 - Catch up on the last 6 months and view on today's market.

6:30 - Trend line discussion

10:45 - What level are you looking for?

17:00 - What concerns do you have regarding the Coronavirus?

21:45 - Bullish sectors and stock picks

29:30 - When would you look to add to your position in CRM?

30:45 - Time to take profits from BABA?


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