The ECB signaled a June rate hike regardless of whether Iran signs a deal, creating the first transatlantic monetary policy divergence of the cycle. Russia told the US to evacuate diplomats from Kyiv ahead of strikes on "decision-making centers." Chinese AI models now generate nearly double the week

The Paper Profit Machine. The most important number in Q1 earnings wasn't revenue growth. It was source of income. Tintin Capital tallied the figures: 58% of Google's net profit and 52% of Amazon's came from mark-to-market gains on stakes in Anthropic, CoreWeave, and other private AI companies. Nvidia carried 27% from simila

- US Central Command conducted "self-defense strikes" on Iranian missile launch sites and boats near the Strait of Hormuz on Monday evening, hours after Iranian negotiators met with Qatari mediators in Doha. CENTCOM described the targets as missile launch sites and boats attempting to emplace mines.

50,580 and Nobody Hedged. AI dropped the cost of creating to zero and left the cost of judging untouched. Three convergent signals confirmed the asymmetry this week. Flask creator Armin Ronacher documented that AI-generated contributions to open-source projects now cost maintainers more to review than they're worth: confiden

The Dow closed at a record above 50,500 heading into Memorial Day with put-call ratios near multi-year lows, then oil crashed more than 5% overnight after the U.S. and Iran signaled proximity to a Hormuz deal. Meanwhile, the gap between what AI systems produce and what humans can evaluate reached a

Confidence Collapsed. Markets Didn't.. Michigan consumer sentiment just posted 44.8, the lowest reading in the survey's seventy-year history. The Dow closed at an all-time high the same day. One of these is wrong. The number beneath the headline matters more: long-run inflation expectations hit 3.9%, up 40 basis points, the highest since

Michigan consumer sentiment hit 44.8, the lowest reading in the survey's seven-decade history, on the same day the Dow closed at an all-time high. The AI subsidy era is cracking as Microsoft cancels Claude Code licenses, Uber burns its entire 2026 AI budget in four months, and token prices climb 65%

Kevin Warsh took the oath as Fed Chair while Trump publicly wished for lower rates at the same ceremony. An Iranian peace deal draft leaked via Al-Arabiya, revealing specific terms for the first time. The Dow closed at an all-time record of 50,580 heading into a three-day Memorial Day weekend.

Congress Pulled the Vote. Tehran Leaked the Deal.. Two events landed within hours on Friday that only make sense together. House Republicans canceled their vote on the Iran war powers resolution. Separately, an Iranian peace deal draft leaked through Al-Arabiya, revealing a phased withdrawal timeline, a permanent Hormuz toll structure, and an Omani

$91 Billion and a Shrug. Walter Deemer pulled a chart from his archives this week. In 1964, the sole producer of the 23-inch color TV picture tube traded under the ticker NVD.A. The stock went from 15 to 120 in eighteen months as every TV manufacturer scrambled for the only component that mattered. Then Motorola and Zenith