The 30-Year Tells the Truth While the Fed Tells a Story. The 30-year Treasury touched 5.10% intraday Friday. The last time the long end traded at that level, George W. Bush was president. Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Fed Chair the same afternoon, on a mandate to cut. Since the Fed began cutting in September 2024, it has delivered 175 basis points of cuts.

Cerebras raised $5.5 billion in the largest US tech IPO since Uber and doubled on its first day, while the CLARITY Act cleared the Senate Banking Committee 15-9, giving crypto its first comprehensive regulatory framework. Trump and Xi published nine joint commitments including a written agreement to

Cerebras Just Opened the IPO Window From the Inside. Cerebras raised $5.5 billion at $185 per share, opened at $350, and closed at $311, the largest US tech IPO since Uber in 2019. The 68% first-day pop is not about one company. It is about unmet institutional demand for AI hardware exposure beyond Nvidia. Cerebras builds wafer-scale chips, putting an

PPI Just Screamed What CPI Whispered. April PPI surged 1.4% month-over-month. The consensus estimate was 0.5%. That is not a miss. That is a factor of three. Nearly 60% of the gain came from services, not energy, which means the inflation is generating its own momentum independent of the oil shock. Wages, rents, and professional service

Producer prices surged 1.4% in April, the largest monthly jump since March 2022, as energy costs ripped through the supply chain. The Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as Fed chair 54-45, the closest vote in modern era, hours before the 30-year Treasury yield crossed 5%. Trump and Xi opened their two-day

The Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh to the Fed board as April CPI printed 3.8%, the hottest since May 2023, with the chair vote expected today. Trump landed in Beijing for a summit with Xi on trade, Iran, and Taiwan. Somali pirates hijacked three ships in ten days as the Red Sea becomes a second no-go

Warsh Gets the Worst First Day Since Volcker. Kevin Warsh was confirmed 51-45 on the same afternoon April CPI printed 3.8%, the hottest since May 2023. Real wages turned negative for the first time in three years. Americans are getting poorer in absolute terms while the man inheriting the Fed faces incompatible mandates: the dot plot says two c

Aramco's CEO warned oil markets will not normalize until 2027 if the Strait stays closed past mid-June. Goldman Sachs called the yuan 20-30% undervalued. The DRAM ETF hit $6.5 billion faster than any fund in history. The banking industry launched a last-stand lobbying blitz to block stablecoin yield

Aramco Says 2027. Aramco's CEO Amin Nasser said markets will lose 100 million barrels per week and will not normalize until 2027 if Hormuz stays closed past mid-June. That is the first concrete timeline from the company that produces more oil than any other entity on earth. One billion barrels of cumulative supply al

Trump Called It Unacceptable. Now What?. Warsh's confirmation vote lands Monday or Tuesday with a 53-seat Republican majority making the outcome essentially certain. But his first public comments as confirmed chair set the tone for whether the market prices independence or accommodation. April CPI prints Tuesday morning into that fresh con