MCC Votes & Seats Podcast – Election insight

As of April 6, 2022, the Fidesz-KDNP leads the vote by a wide margin and will gain 135 parliamentary seats, two more than in 2014 or 2018. In addition to the two-thirds majority of Fidesz, the opposition alliance United for Hungary won a total of 56 seats, and the far-right Our Homeland party also won 7 seats. In light of the Russian invasion of neighboring Ukraine, the voters’ desire for peace and security met with the major campaign message of the ruling party, and Fidesz was much faster to accommodate to the new war crisis situation than its rivals.

Leftist, center-right, environmentalist, socialist and liberal opposition parties decided on running together on a common list, with a common candidate for prime minister. Yet, the opposition formations together have lost almost 900,000 opposition voters compared to 2018, when they ran individually.

For further details, please listen to the latest edition of the Votes and Seats podcast series.

With the help of guest experts and politicians, in the podcast series of MCC’s Centre for Political Science we endeavor to analyze which actors are the real winners of the parliamentary and municipal elections taking place this year in different European countries and what exactly can be considered a real victory after the ballot counts.

This time, Mr. Alexandre de Sousa Carvalho* from the Center for Social Studies of the University of Coimbra helps us understand the background of the early legislative election that was held in Portugal, on 30 January 2022. Our guest expert gave us a comprehensive analysis about the Portuguese party system and the current hot topics in his country.

The snap election was called for due to the rejection of the 2022 state budget as the left-wing parties joined the right-wing ones in voting against the proposal. The center-left Socialist Party of Prime Minister António Costa secured an unexpected majority in the Assembly of the Republic obtaining around 42% of the vote, while its main opponent, the liberal-conservative Social Democratic Party slightly underperformed the surveys and gathered around 29%. As a new phenomenon, the right-wing populist CHEGA saw an increase in popularity and finished in third place. 

With the help of guest experts and politicians, in the podcast series of MCC’s Centre for Political Science we endeavor to analyze which actors are the real winners of the parliamentary and municipal elections taking place this year in different European countries and what exactly can be considered a real victory after the ballot counts.

This time, the Votes & Seats podcast analysis of the MCC Center for Political Science endeavors to give an insight into Bulgaria’s third attempt in 2021 to elect a parliament as no party or alliance was able to form a government after the April and July ballots. Bulgarian international relations analyst and OSCE elections expert, Neli Kirilova* helped us analyze the results and the background of the ballots from a local perspective.

Launched just two months before the election, the centrist anti-graft party We Continue the Change (PP) won the most seats with 25.7% of the votes, and has started negotiations to form a government after its surprise victory. According to Ms. Kirilova, the support of the other protest parties will not be enough for PP to form a solid majority, however, a possible collaboration with the socialist BSP would question the credibility of all the anti-graft formations that were founded in recent years with the very aim to remove the old political elite of Bulgaria from power. The elections expert highlighted that while by the first round of the legislative election, the 2020 anti-corruption demonstrations led to the defeat of the ruling center-right GERB party, the atmosphere of protests was not able to gain a new momentum after the unsuccessful government formation attempts during the spring and the summer of 2021.

The first round of the country’s presidential election took place on the same day as the legislative one, however, as no candidate was able to receive a majority of the vote, a runoff was held on 21 November, with incumbent head-of-state Rumen Radev being able to win against university professor Anastas Gerdzhikov.

Should you be interested in the geopolitical context of the November 2021 elections in Bulgaria, and in the programs of the parties and candidates that ran in the ballot, we highly recommend you to listen to the latest edition of the Votes & Seats podcast series.

*Neli Kirilova is a Bulgarian international relations and security policies expert. She has been involved in various election processes as member of an OSCE observer team or local electoral committees both in Bulgaria and abroad. Ms. Kirilova is a PhD candidate at the Corvinus University of Budapest and a PhD Fellow at the European Security and Defense College. Ms. Kirilova’s main field of research is geopolitical competition in the Black Sea region. 

With the help of guest experts and politicians, in the podcast series of MCC’s Centre for Political Science we endeavor to analyze which actors are the real winners of the parliamentary and municipal elections taking place this year in different European countries and what exactly can be considered a real victory after the ballot counts.

PhDr. Ladislav Cabada, vice-rector of the Metropolitan University Prague explained us the results of the Czech election to the House of Representatives held on 8 and 9 October. He gave us an overview of the most important campaign issues, described the main parties, elaborated the hardships of government formation, and discussed what the change in government could mean on the Czech EU policies and the Visegrad cooperation.

The incumbent ANO 2011 party remained the single largest party after the election, but it lost its coalition potential. The former supporters of Prime Minister Babiš, the historical Czech Social Democratic Party and the Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia failed to pass the threshold and fell out of the House. Two electoral alliances, the conservative Spolu (Together) and the liberal Pirates and Mayors won more than half of the seats, and agreed that they would like to govern jointly under the leadership of the Civic Democratic Party, Petr Fiala. The hospitalisation of President Zeman and his intention to first ask Babiš to try to build a sufficient majority on his behalf may prolong government formation. In principle, ANO could team up with the Freedom and Direct Democracy, the radical party of Okamura, and detach one or two parties from the conservative or liberal alliance. However, if the latter remains adamant to work together, Babiš has no chance to keep his position as prime minister.

Should Spolu and the Pirates and Mayors govern together, they may find it very difficult to maintain their internal stability, to preserve credits with the mainstream European parties and institutions, while successfully representing Czech national interests. One thing is certain though: if they form the new Czech government, it will be far less interested in strengthening the Visegrad platform, as these political parties have been critical of the Budapest-Warsaw dominance of the V4 cooperation.

With the help of guest experts and politicians, in the podcast series of MCC’s Centre for Political Science we endeavor to analyze which actors are the real winners of the parliamentary and municipal elections taking place this year in different European countries and what exactly can be considered a real victory after the ballot counts.

This episode of the MCC Votes&Seats podcast provides an analysis of the results of the 2021 German Federal Elections. Prof. Dr. Oliver Lembcke (Ruhr University Bochum) highlights the causes of the fragmentation and levelling of the German party system, explains why the CDU and the Left party (Die Linke) underperformed, and considers the key controversial issues of the coalition negotiations. Furthermore, he also gives some insights into the struggles within the SPD, analyses the position of Olaf Scholz (leader of the SPD), and outlines the main obstacles the next German chancellor had to face. Finally, he makes some reflections on the new government’s policy on European integration.

With the help of guest experts and politicians, in the podcast series of MCC’s Centre for Political Science we endeavor to analyze which actors are the real winners of the parliamentary and municipal elections taking place this year in different European countries and what exactly can be considered a real victory after the ballot counts.

This time, in the MCC Votes & Seats analysis we investigate the background of the September 2021 legislative election in the Russian Federation. President Vladimir Putin's United Russia won nearly 50% of the vote, which provides the party a clear majority in the lower house, the State Duma. However, our guest analyst, Mr. Anton Bendarjevskiy* claims that pre-election opinion polls have showed a considerable loss of support for the ruling party. Besides United Russia, only the so-called systemic parties managed to get in the State Duma that generally support the government’s initiatives.

Our guest expert highlights that due to the decreasing interest towards foreign and strategic affairs, the nationalist opposition parties faced a significant loss of popularity, while center-left and liberal systemic parties (also supposedly backed by the government) seemed to benefit from the social and economic issues that dominated the campaign.

Mr. Bendarjevskiy explains us why this legislative election was even more problematic than the previous ones. There were allegations of widespread electoral fraud, and the extended election procedure helped government authorities and state-owned companies to mobilize employees to vote. Additionally, the country analyst state that from 10 up to 30% of the vote could have been “stolen” amid the newly introduced electronic voting.

If you would like to get some information over the possible composition of the new government, if you would like to know why the opposition activist Alexei Navalny’s “Smart Voting” initiative did not turn to be effective, and if you are interested in what might be the key to the success of the new systemic parties, click on one of the links below and give a listen to our latest podcast.

*Mr. Bendarjevskiy was born in Belarus. He studied History, Media and Communications at the University of Pécs, and frequented a Political Science formation at the University of Leicester (UK). Mr Bendarjevskiy is completing his PhD in geopolitics at the University of Pécs. His topic is the integration processes in the post-Soviet region. Since June 2021, Mr. Bendarjevskiy is the Director of Research at Danube Institute.

With the help of guest experts and politicians, in the podcast series of MCC’s Centre for Political Science we endeavor to analyze which actors are the real winners of the parliamentary and municipal elections taking place this year in different European countries and what exactly can be considered a real victory after the ballot counts.

Christer Daatland, a political scientist from Stavanger, Norway, gave as an insight into the Norwegian parliamentary elections held on 13 September. He outlined the main campaign issues, analysed the developments of the party system, and revealed what we should expect from the new government.

After the unexceptional 8 years in government, the centre right parties were defeated, and the earlier coalition of the Labour, the Centre and the Socialist Left parties may return to power. This time, however, the Labour will not be in a dominant position, thus the expected prime minister, Jonas Gahr Støre will be more dependent on the will of the coalition partners. The negotiating parties have disagreements over the wealth tax, climate taxes, rural policies, and EU relations. With the right of centre opposition and the growing far-left in opposition and the smaller, the Labour will need a careful balancing to maintain government stability for the next parliamentary term. The leader of the Progress Party resigned after 15 years, and the party lost its third position at the election. The Christian Democratic Party fell out of parliament, while the formerly Maoist Red Party went up from 1 to 8 seats in the legislature. A new, single-issue party, the Patient Focus entered parliament for the first time with one representative from Norway’s northernmost region of Finnmark. The small parties will make no major impact on the legislative process.

The Norwegian-EU relations are unlikely to change, and the dispute between the two respective governments over the suspension of Norwegian Fund support to Hungary will certainly remain unresolved.

With the help of guest experts and politicians, in the podcast series of MCC’s Centre for Political Science we endeavor to analyze which actors are the real winners of the parliamentary and municipal elections taking place this year in different European countries and what exactly can be considered a real victory after the ballot counts.

The latest edition of the MCC Votes & Seats podcast investigates the background and the possible outcomes of the July 2021 snap parliamentary election in the Republic of Moldova. Our guest analyst, Dr. Natalia Putină* helps us explore the major fault lines of the current Moldovan party politics by providing an impressive professional insight into the country’s European integration process, geopolitical position, economic situation, as well as legal system.

Moldova has been through many crises, and the rather calm and transparent 11 July 2021 ballot took place in an atmosphere of political deadlock. In our discussion, we address the international observers’ concerns over the impartiality of the Moldovan election authorities and over the transparency of campaign contributions. Our guest expert cites the major reforms most Moldovans are asking for, and we also go through the actual political narratives and popular campaign themes that characterized the election process this summer in the deeply polarized Moldovan society. 

Through a thought-provoking reasoning, Dr. Putină comes to the conclusion that this snap election could be the beginning of a new era in Moldovan parliamentary politics. If you would like to learn the basis of our guest expert’s aforementioned claim, it is time to give a listen to the Moldova edition of the Votes & Seats interview series.

*Dr. Putină serves as associate professor at the Department of Political and Administrative Sciences at the State University of Moldova. She holds the position of Vice Dean at the Faculty of International Relations, Political Science, and Administrative Studies at the same institution. Dr. Putină is the author of numerous English and Rumanian language academic papers in the fields of ethnic minority and migration policies as well as electoral behavior in the Republic of Moldova and Caucasian states.

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Az MCC Votes & Seats podcast sorozat legújabb adásában a 2021. júliusi moldovai előrehozott parlamenti választás hátterét és lehetséges következményeit járjuk körbe. Vendégelemzőnk, Dr. Natalia Putină* feltárja a Moldovai Köztársaságban napjainkban jellemző főbb politikai törésvonalak hátterét, miközben figyelemreméltó szakmai gyorstalpalóban részesülhetünk az ország európai integrációs jövőképeit illetően, az aktuális geopolitikai, gazdasági és jogállami helyzet ismertetésén keresztül.

A kelet-európai ország számos válságot élt meg az utóbbi időben, és az egyébként meglehetősen nyugodt és transzparens nyári kampányra és szavazásra is egyfajta politikai patthelyzet volt jellemző. A beszélgetés során szóba kerülnek a helyi választási hatóságok pártatlanságával és a kampányfinanszírozás átláthatóságával kapcsolatban a nemzetközi megfigyelők részéről felmerült aggályok is. A vendégszakértőnk felsorakoztatja a moldovai társadalom többsége által megfogalmazott főbb reformigényeket, továbbá kitérünk a mélyen polarizált légkörben zajlott nyári választási folyamat meghatározó politikai narratíváira és kampánytémáira.

Dr. Putină gondolatébresztő érvelése szerint a júliusi előrehozott választás egy új korszak kezdetét fémjelezheti a moldovai parlamenti politikában. Ha érdekel, mire alapozza vendégelemzőnk az iménti állítását, hallgassd végig a Votes & Seats interjúsorozat moldovai kiadását!

With the help of guest experts and politicians, in the podcast series of MCC’s Centre for Political Science we endeavor to analyze which actors are the real winners of the parliamentary and municipal elections taking place this year in different European countries and what exactly can be considered a real victory after the ballot counts.

This time, we discuss the background and the outcome of Bulgaria’s July 2021 snap parliamentary election that were held after no party was able or willing to form a government following the April election. Musician and TV host Slavi Trifonov’s populist ITN party narrowly won the most seats performing well predominantly among younger generations and in bigger cities. It was the first time since 2006 that a coalition led by the right-wing GERB had not won the most seats. Our guest expert, Mr. Piotr Pietrzak* points out that many citizens have turned to newly established anti-graft parties (like ITN, for instance), accusing the former GERB cabinet of financial fraud and other shortcomings. Mr. Pietrzak emphasizes that ITN’s strategy went against all traditional campaign methods: instead of TV, radio or newspaper promotions, as well as billboard ads, the ex-TV host’s party was primarily active on social media platforms. Our guest analyst believes that the rise of anti-establishment parties may be seen as an indicative of a major change in the political landscape of Bulgaria. In terms of campaign strategies and political slogans, Bulgarian political actors have followed innovative approaches at European levels too, that’s why it’s worth keeping an eye on that country. Our podcast reveals what measures can be expected from a future Trifonov cabinet, as well as how to explain the absence of divisive ethnic or external enemy rhetoric in Bulgarian public life.

 *Dr. PIOTR PIETRZAK (Sofia University "St. Kliment Ohridski") specializes in International Relations, geopolitics, and international law and is the editor-in-chief of In Statu Nascendi Journal of Political Philosophy and International Relations. 

With the help of guest experts and politicians, in the podcast series of MCC’s Centre for Political Science we endeavor to analyze which actors are the real winners of the parliamentary and municipal elections taking place this year in different European countries and what exactly can be considered a real victory after the ballot counts.

This time, we discuss the background and the outcome of Armenia’s June 2021 early parliamentary election. Our guest expert Mikayel Zolyan* considers the debates on the political processes leading to the defeat of Armenians in the 2020 Karabakh-Artsakh warto be the most divisive topic in the campaign. Mr. Zolyan sees this election as a clash of the old and the new political elite that governed the country before and after the 2018 Velvet Revolution. Former acting prime minister Nikol Pashinyan’s centrist-liberal Civil Contract party received 54% of the vote, which provides the anti-corruption new-wave political formation a clear majority the National Assembly. Former head of state and prime minister Robert Kocharyan’s center-right nationalist Armenia Alliance group finished second with a bit more than 21% of the vote, while the right-wing conservative I Have Honor Alliance of Serzh Sargsyan – who previously also served as president and prime minister – achieved around 5%. The opposition claimed there had been electoral fraud, while the OSCE assessed the election as positive. Our guest analyst expects that the new Pashinyan cabinet will be able to transform the existing socio-political tensions into civilized parliamentary debates. We endeavor to understand why the moderate Armenian political forces’ victory is more advantageous for Moscow than that of the unreservedly pro-Russia actors. We try to figure out why this campaign failed to mobilize younger generations and intellectuals who were actively involved in the 2018 demonstrations. In addition, Mr. Zolyan also explains why he thinks that the 44-day Nagorno-Karabakh armed conflict was inevitable.

*Dr. Mikayel Zolyan is a political analyst and historian. He works as Associate Professor at the Yerevan V. Brusov State University of Languages and Social Sciences. From December 2018 to May 2021, Mr. Zolyan has been an Elected Member of the Armenian National Assembly.
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 A Votes & Seats legújabb adásában az örményországi előrehozott parlamenti választás hátteréről beszélgettünk az eredmények ismeretében. Vendégszakértőnk, Mikajel Zoljan* a 2020-as hegyi-karabahi háborúban elszenvedett örmény vereséghez vezető politikai folyamatokról szóló vitákat tekinti a kampány legmeghatározóbb elemének. Zoljan a 2021. júniusi választást az országot a 2018-as bársonyos forradalom előtt irányító régi és az azt követően hatalomra kerülő új politikai elit összecsapásaként értelmezi. Podcast-sorozatunk legújabb adásában többek között arra keressük a választ, miért előnyösebb Moszkvának a mérsékeltek győzelme az elkötelezetten oroszbarát formációkkal szemben. Kiderül, hogy ezúttal miért nem sikerült mozgósítani a három évvel ezelőtti választási kampányban még aktívan résztvevő fiatal és értelmiségi szavazókat. Azt is megtudjuk, vendégszakértőnk miért tartotta elkerülhetetlennek a 44 napos fegyveres konfliktus kirobbanását Azerbajdzsán és a hegyi-karabahi örmények között.

 *Vendégszakértőnk politikai elemző és történész, a Jereváni Bruszov Állami Nyelv- és Társadalomtudományi Egyetem docense. Dr. Mikajel Zoljan 2018 decemberétől 2021 májusáig megválasztott képviselőként vett részt az Örmény Nemzetgyűlés munkájában. 

With the help of guest experts and politicians, in the podcast series of MCC’s Centre for Political Science we endeavor to analyze which actors are the real winners of the parliamentary and municipal elections taking place this year in different European countries and what exactly can be considered a real victory after the ballot counts.