- Herd will eventually stabilize and start to grow again
We will begin 2024 with 50,000 fewer heifers than we did in 2023Milk output will begin to grow again by spring flushBuyers should be defensive and buy into weakness to extend coverageCocoa- Fundamentals are only now starting to catch up to the price move we have already seen
Lag in arrivals and projected deficit is growing as we near the mid-point of the main-cropMore price increases by large branded companies are expected as cocoa continues to trade at 47-year highsHigh prices will cause demand destruction manifest in retail sales figures- First rate reduction at June FOMC: 100bp total 2024
Core CPI falls to 3% and holdsGDP averages closer to 1%, maybe a slight negative quarter mixed inS&P makes new record high, but returns come back down to earth in the 6-8% rangeCrude oil breaks the $68 soft floor and averages $65 despite an EIA forecast of $78Sugar- # 11 sugar will trade up to mid-20s before coming back to current levels
# 16 market will remain just below High Tier imports2025 sugar negotiations will mirror 2024 negotiationsCorn- Acreage may lose to soybeans
Ethanol demand stallsExports robustEnding stocks remain over 2.0 billion bushelsWheat- U.S. crop to reach 2 billion bushels next year, despite fewer planted acres
Global stocks recover: 267 to 270 MMTLa Niña watch in late 2024Edible oils- Soybean oil use for biofuel to reach or surpass 13.4 billion lbs
Despite this, soybean oil futures may finally meet their “new normal”: listen for that number!McKeany-Flavell’s Spring Market Seminar coming April 17, 2024!- Mark your calendars, registration opens in January!
Happy New Year!Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Jeffrey Rasinski, Consultant
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Risk Management
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist
Expert: Eric Thornton, Commodity Specialist
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services