Meanwhile in Europe

Today's November 18, 2025 . The most immediate challenge facing European leaders is securing financing for Ukraine before the final European Council summit of 2025 on December 18th. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has warned that the stakes are extremely high, urging capitals to agree on a commitment to ensure Ukraine does not run out of money midway through next year, thereby denying Russia the "hope of victory".

The primary debate centers on the thorniest proposal: underwriting a reparations loan using a colossal €140 billion of frozen Russian assets. This plan faces significant resistance, particularly from Belgium, which hosts the vast majority of these funds and fears litigation or retaliation from Moscow, insisting the EU must equally share the risks.

Meanwhile, internal coalition pressure is rising in Germany, where Chancellor Friedrich Merz is battling a rebellion from his own center-right allies over pension reform plans that younger lawmakers argue are not generationally fair. While there are signs of possible de-escalation, members of the "Junge Gruppe" insist that "substantive changes" to the draft law are necessary before they will agree to it.

As Europe contends with these financial and political fissures, key developments are unfolding globally and in the UK. The U.K. Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, has unveiled a tough new asylum crackdown designed to tackle illegal migration, reforms which include steps aimed at "reprioritizing" the return of entire refugee families to safe countries and overhauling the asylum appeal process.

Mahmood’s allies are banking on the fact that this move aligns with the public mood, despite facing predicted parliamentary trouble from within her own party. Internationally, attention is focused on the Middle East, as the U.N. Security Council recently approved the U.S. plan for an international peacekeeping force in Gaza, though the resolution was promptly rejected by Hamas.

In response to the complex defense and security landscape, the leaders of Germany, France, and the U.K. are meeting tonight in Berlin to discuss crucial topics including support for Ukraine, European security, and the Middle East.

Finally, providing a rare positive environmental headline, Denmark has set the most ambitious 2035 emissions-cutting target of any developed country, aiming for an 82 percent reduction below 1990 levels, an effort the Danish Climate Minister stated is necessary to send a "bold and clear signal" in current times.

This Monday morning is dominated by major financial and geopolitical flashpoints across Europe, starting with the resurgence of the "Frugal" coalition attempting to rein in the EU’s long-term budget.

This group—including countries like Austria, Sweden, Germany, and the Netherlands, alongside new participants France and Belgium—is campaigning to limit the size of the estimated €2 trillion Multi-Annual Financial Framework (MFF), arguing that the budget must be put "on a diet" and that nations must "spend better".

This renewed split over fiscal policy signals the start of what some diplomats believe will be the "hardest in EU history" budget negotiations.

Meanwhile, London is awash in political noise as the UK government unveils its headline-grabbing illegal immigration plans.

These controversial measures aim to provide bare minimum protection to meet international obligations, institute a two-decade wait for settlement, restrict appeals, and reverse "hesitancy" around deporting families and Syrians, drawing criticism from Labour MPs but serving the government's aim of looking like it is fighting on an issue voters care about.

Geopolitical maneuvering is equally urgent, centered on the war in Ukraine and diplomatic outreach to Russia and China. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is in Paris to meet with President Emmanuel Macron, where he has teased a potential "historic deal" on air defenses to bolster Kyiv’s aerial fighting capabilities.

Contradicting this line of support, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is urging the EU to establish a direct communication channel with Vladimir Putin, arguing that Brussels must avoid being cut out of negotiations and citing the constant nuclear risk.

On the domestic front, the German coalition government is grappling with a potentially coalition-threatening crisis, the Rentenstreit, over the pension package after Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s visit with the Junge Union ended in disagreement, complicating efforts to bring the legislation through the Bundestag.

Simultaneously, German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil has begun a key visit to Peking for finance talks, aiming to maintain dialogue with China despite growing international tensions, including concerns over Taiwan and new China-tariffs.

Source: Fellmann, T., Tassinari, G., Lasarte Lopez, J., Rey Vicario, D., Beber, C. et al., Scenar 2040 – A scenario study on the Common Agricultural Policy, Publications Office of the European Union, 2025, https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2760/7381366

Welcome to the weekend read: The Future of Your Food: How Policy Choices Shape EU Farming, Prices, and the Environment to 2040. Have you ever wondered what would happen if Europe’s massive, decades-old farming system suddenly disappeared? That question is at the heart of the comprehensive analysis we’re diving into today: the Joint Research Centre’s extensive "Scenar 2040" study.

This document, commissioned to inform future policy, takes us on a fascinating—and sometimes alarming—trip to the year 2040, simulating how dramatic shifts in the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) could reshape the continent's agriculture. To truly understand the gravity of the policy choices ahead, the study first modeled the counterfactual: the complete removal of the CAP framework, known as the NoCAP scenario.

The results confirm that eliminating this policy—which currently manages an average annual budget of approximately €61 billion—would trigger profound and highly unequal economic, environmental, and social transformations across the EU. This extreme "what if" scenario serves as a vital benchmark, underscoring the CAP's essential role in anchoring the EU agricultural landscape.

The core dilemma, however, lies in the critical structural trade-offs revealed by the two main simulated policy paths. On one side is the "Productivity and Investment" scenario, which directs CAP support toward enhancing yields and competitiveness, generally leading to production expansion, lower domestic prices, and stronger global market standing.

Yet, this pursuit of high output risks increasing environmental pressures within the EU, potentially raising total agriculture greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and nitrogen surpluses. The opposing path, the "Environment and Climate" scenario, prioritizes environmental sustainability and climate-focused interventions.

While successful in reducing EU nitrogen surpluses and GHG emissions, this shift often results in lower farm productivity, leading to production declines and subsequently higher prices for consumers.

Crucially, the environmental benefits achieved within the EU in this scenario come with a major catch: if EU production shrinks, non-EU countries increase their output to fill the demand, often resulting in substantial emission leakage and a net increase in global agriculture GHG emissions.

These contrasting outcomes highlight the complexity of balancing local viability and global sustainability within the constraints of fundamental market realities like trade and demand.

Today's November 14, 2025. A massive IPSOS poll result points to about half of voters in nine EU countries dissatisfied with the way democracy is working.

Anxiety is especially acute in France, where a staggering 86 percent of voters expressed worry about the future of democracy over the next five years, prompting discussions about the rise of extremism and the lack of accountability among political leaders.

Against this backdrop of popular disquiet, the European political landscape saw a seismic shift as the center-right European People’s Party (EPP)—the largest group in the European Parliament—formally broke the cordon sanitaire.

This informal pact, which had historically kept the far-right out of decision-making, was shattered when the EPP joined forces with the Patriots for Europe group to pass cuts to a major green regulation package, a move hailed by far-right leader Jordan Bardella as a "historic victory" and the dawning of a "new era".

Internationally, the crisis consuming Kyiv continues to deepen as Ukraine reels from the biggest corruption probe of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s tenure, involving allegations that associates skimmed around $100 million from the energy sector.

Top presidential aide pushed back against the corruption criticism, affirming that Zelenskyy is a “very principled person” and “not corrupt,” emphasizing that the president initiated the fight against corruption himself.

Meanwhile, high-stakes political maneuvering dominated domestic policy in London and Berlin.

UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves reversed course on a highly anticipated income tax hike, claiming better-than-expected economic forecasts negated the need for the controversial measure.

However, this U-turn was widely interpreted by critics and Labour MPs as "bottling" a bold decision, a move that immediately unsettled bond markets and led to accusations that the leadership was prioritizing "short-term survival before national interest".

Finally, Germany announced a major move toward digital sovereignty, with Chancellor Friedrich Merz stating that Chinese suppliers like Huawei would be excluded from the country's future 6G network for security reasons.

Today's, November 13, 2025. The most immediate concern is the potential collapse of the central political firewall, as the center-right European People’s Party (EPP) prepares to team up with far-right groups to push through significant cuts to green reporting requirements for businesses.

This collaboration could cement the EPP’s role as the Parliament's power-broker, swinging right on green rules while still relying on centrists for other priorities, such as the 2040 climate target.

Meanwhile, leaders are struggling to address the financial and political fallout from the $100 million corruption scandal revealed in Ukraine's energy sector, which has already led to ministerial resignations in Kyiv.

This toxic development comes as EU finance ministers meet to discuss advancing the crucial €140 billion reparations loan for Ukraine, with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz publicly calling on President Zelenskyy to "sort out Kyiv’s corruption problems".

Adding to the tense European environment, Germany has also reached a domestic compromise to institute a mechanism for "emergency conscription," requiring all 18-year-old men to undergo a military medical exam starting in 2027.

Across the Channel, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has been forced to address a highly scrutinized "briefing-gate" row after alleged attacks on the Health Secretary were leaked to the press. Although Downing Street staff insisted the briefings did not come from No. 10, Starmer read his team the "riot act," clarifying he would fire anyone caught slagging off ministers.

This political skirmish has overshadowed the government’s major announcements regarding mini-nuclear plants and AI growth zones.

On the other side of the Atlantic, Washington saw some relief as President Donald Trump signed legislation overnight to successfully end the 43-day government shutdown.

Finally, amidst the political chaos, the European Parliament is also moving forward with social reforms, expected to pass a measure today allowing pregnant and new-mother MEPs to use proxy voting, while also voting on a groundbreaking report aimed at defining and countering the threat of transnational repression on European soil.

November 12, 2025. In London, Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces a significant leadership crisis dubbed "Keir and present danger". Allies of the prime minister have brought weeks of speculation into the open by briefing that he expects a leadership challenge and intends to fight it.

This internal turmoil has been described as "Keir and loathing in downing street". The immediate political danger is highlighted by claims that Health Secretary Wes Streeting, who is publicly denying plotting, has up to 50 frontbenchers willing to resign if the budget goes poorly and Starmer remains. Additionally, a key decision looms regarding the "D-day for the two-child cap?", as the government's child poverty task force meets to draw up plans for scrapping the welfare cap.

In Germany, the pension issue is intensifying, becoming a definitive "power struggle" (Die Rente wird für Merz zur Machtfrage) for Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

The coalition faces resistance, particularly from the Junge Gruppe, who oppose the 120-billion-euro pension package proposed by Bärbel Bas. Meanwhile, Berlin celebrates "70 years of Bundeswehr" (70 Jahre Bundeswehr) with a solemn ceremony involving around 280 recruits. German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt also revealed a "hot lead on drone origin" (Heiße Spur zur Herkunft der Drohnen?), suggesting that the sightings might originate from Russia’s shadow fleet.

In France, the headline "vote to postpone" (Voter décaler) refers to the critical vote in the National Assembly on the social security budget (Budget de la Sécu). This measure specifically involves suspending or delaying the application of the 2023 retirement reform, an action the government took to secure support and avoid a vote of no confidence from the Socialists.

In Brussels, migration is the "driving the day" topic, after the Commission released a sensitive migration package, known as the "commission’s stealth migration drop", on a bank holiday. The package includes the first annual report on migration and decisions about which EU countries are classified as facing acute or future migratory pressure, determining eligibility for the Solidarity Pool. Furthermore, there is "crunch time for the firewall" (Crunchtime für die Brandmauer) as the European Parliament votes on a bureaucrat reduction omnibus, potentially testing the EPP’s willingness to seek majorities with factions further to the right.

Finally, the "ECB succession" race is underway, with eurozone finance ministers meeting to begin discussions on filling the European Central Bank Vice President role, marking the start of a major leadership reshuffle.

Today, November 11, 2025, Europe observes Armistice Day, a moment of remembrance contrasted sharply with the escalating political and security crises gripping the continent.

In Brussels, the war in Ukraine remains the driving force, as Kyiv's ambassador warns that Europe's peace and security are being safeguarded by Ukrainian courage, demanding that the EU remain united and provide necessary resources.

We analyze the European plan to "frontload" Ukraine's practical reforms for EU membership, a strategy designed to move ahead without waiting for Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's required unanimous approval. This diplomatic gambit is set to culminate at a critical informal summit in Lviv on December 10th.

As leaders debate how to secure the continent, European People's Party chief Manfred Weber warns that Europe is "alone and naked in a world full of storms," emphasizing that "now is the time to say a clear yes to a common European defense".

Meanwhile, in London, a high-stakes transatlantic spat has plunged the BBC into a severe leadership crisis. The fallout stems from a botched 2024 edit of a Donald Trump speech, prompting the U.S. President to threaten to sue the state broadcaster for over $1 billion in defamation.

This comes as Commission President Ursula von der Leyen navigates internal EU institutional disputes, having secured a deal on the €2 trillion long-term budget that grants the European Parliament unprecedented leverage.

In Berlin, Chancellor Friedrich Merz is celebrating his 70th birthday, but he is urged by allies to gain more control over the communicative discipline of his cabinet as the German coalition struggles to move from conflict to "work mode" amidst critical budget negotiations.

Across Europe, from the complex politics of French pension reform to the struggles of funding military recruitment, it is a day defined by high political tension and existential choices.

Welcome to The Instability Index, your deep dive into the political turbulence across Europe on November 10, 2025, where institutional failures and domestic rebellions define the start of the week.

London is reeling from a massive institutional crisis, marked by the double resignations of BBC Director General Tim Davie and BBC News CEO Deborah Turness, an outcome that opened a "political hornet's nest" and left existential questions hanging over the state broadcaster's future. Their departures followed days of pressure and accusations of bias stemming from a scathing leaked memo about the corporation's output, an event referred to as the "Panorama debacle".

Meanwhile, in Brussels, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (VDL) is attempting a political "climbdown" to defuse a major spat over the long-term EU budget (MFF). VDL is offering compromise proposals to the European Parliament, which MEPs are using to gain leverage, leveraging the fact that VDL's own majority has become increasingly "fragil" (fragile).

The political stakes are equally high in Paris and Berlin, where high-profile legal and legislative battles are underway. Today, all eyes are on the correctional appeals chamber in Paris, which is examining former President Nicolas Sarkozy's request for release from prison, having been condemned on September 25 to five years for association of malefactors in the Libyan affair.

Domestically in France, an exclusive poll on the upcoming municipal elections in Marseille has caused significant commotion, placing the National Rally (RN) candidate, Franck Allisio, at "equality" with the sitting mayor, Benoît Payan, in the first round. In Germany, Kanzler Merz faces a crucial week of reforms, including the Wehrdienst (defense mandate) and the Rente (pension) package.

Merz must navigate a tense situation where 18 members of the Young Group—dubbed the "Renten-Rebellen" (pension rebels)—have declared the current pension reform plans unacceptable, threatening the coalition's majority for the cabinet-approved reform. This clash sets the stage for a potential public confrontation between the Kanzler and the Young Union later this week.

Welcome to the Weekend Read.

Europe’s seas, covering more than 11 million km², are critical ecosystems that feed us, regulate our climate, and provide the majority of species found in Europe with habitats. However, these seas face rapid change due to human activities, including pollution, plastic waste, habitat loss, acidification, and warmer waters from climate change, all of which reduce marine biodiversity and ecosystem resilience. To counter these threats, EU-funded research, primarily under Horizon 2020 and Horizon Europe, is focused on reducing and preventing drivers of marine biodiversity loss and offering solutions for a healthier future. This strategic response is guided by ambitious policies such as the EU Biodiversity Strategy and the Nature Restoration Law, adopted in June 2024, which aim to effectively protect 30% of the EU’s seas by 2030 and restore habitats that are not in good condition. The ultimate goal is to restore biodiversity for the benefit of people, climate, and the planet.

Achieving this resilient ocean future relies on cutting-edge science and innovative solutions. EU-funded projects are enhancing ocean governance by improving observation and forecasting systems, providing critical data for fisheries, tourism, and aquaculture. Technological innovations are tackling pollution at the source, such as the AMBI-ROBIC project developing a disruptive, net-zero carbon, and energy-efficient wastewater treatment using anaerobic digestion. Plastic waste is addressed via the ECOLACTIPACK project, which created CareTips®, a fully biodegradable, water-soluble natural polymer derived from dairy protein for plastic-free packaging, and via cleanup technologies like autonomous robots (SeaClear) that detect and collect litter from the seafloor, and bubble barriers (MAELSTROM) that prevent plastics from entering the sea via rivers. Additionally, Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) are being implemented through projects like FutureMARES and MaCoBioS to curb the effects of the climate emergency by restoring critical species like kelp and eelgrass, reviving native flat oysters for coastal sustainability, and constructing artificial dunes to mitigate coastal erosion. This holistic approach also involves integrating activities like sustainable aquaculture and tourism with offshore energy production through multi-use platforms, ensuring economic interests are balanced with environmental protection.

Source: Publications Office of the European Union, European Commission: European Research Executive Agency, CORDIS and Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, CORDIS results pack on marine biodiversity, Publications Office of the European Union, 2024, https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2830/9980277

Today's November 7, 2025, the global political focus is split between an urgent climate summit and deep domestic budget crises gripping major European capitals.

The UN Climate Summit (COP30) in Belém, Brazil, is a central, yet troubled, venue, marked by the absence of the United States after President Trump withdrew from the Paris Agreement and shifted foreign policy toward promoting American fossil fuels.

Against this backdrop, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is making his first appearance at a UN climate conference, though sources suggest he is heavily preoccupied with the "tense coalition climate" back home in Berlin and his many "Chancellor-problems".

Meanwhile, in Brussels, Commission officials are racing against a tight deadline to secure the unfreezing of €140 billion in Russian assets—a critical financial lifeline Ukraine needs by early next year.

This effort is running into a severe "Belgian political drama," as Prime Minister Bart De Wever’s government struggles to clinch a domestic budget deal involving €10 billion in spending cuts, and De Wever has warned that a 50-day extension granted for securing the deal, which expires on December 26, is a "maximum period".

Domestic political headaches are equally acute across France and the United Kingdom, dominated by contentious budget negotiations and internal party friction.

In Paris, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu is engaged in delicate negotiations, aiming to find a point of "equilibrium" with the Senate to ensure France gets a budget without resorting to the constitutional provision of Article 49.3. Lecornu, described by senators as "clever" and "skillful," even met with Senate President Gérard Larcher to prepare for the budgetary debate.

However, the right and center majority in the Senate plan to significantly "unravel" the version passed by the Assembly, specifically targeting the reversal of €46 billion in tax increases before seeking a compromise in the joint mixed committee (CMP).

Across the English Channel, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer returns from Belém to face internal "angst" following reports that Labour Chancellor Rachel Reeves has informed the OBR (Office for Budget Responsibility) of her intention to raise income tax.

This impending tax hike, seen as potentially breaking a manifesto promise, has fueled party splits, highlighted by Deputy Leader Lucy Powell’s public calls for the government not to break its pledges.

Simultaneously, Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy continues to face "vicious briefing" from Cabinet ministers and MPs who criticized his "shockingly bad" or "cowardly" handling of a recent controversy involving the accidental release of prisoners.