MediaTalk

Hollywood loves a sequel and so do we. As "MediaTalk" takes a Memorial Day weekend break, we present a reprise of our summer box office outlook. S&P Global's box office experts, Wade Holden and Mac Mathews, point to a slate packed with major franchises and originals — from The Devil Wears Prada 2 to Supergirl, a new Spider-Man entry, and Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey — as key reasons the market could push past the $4 billion summer threshold.

We'll be back next week with a new episode previewing our upcoming Kagan Media & Telecom Summit, followed the week after with an episode about the FIFA World Cup 2026.

More S&P Global content:

Kagan Media & Telecom Summit 2026

Featured experts:

Wade Holden, senior research analyst at S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan

Mac Mathews, associate director of editorial, design and publishing at S&P Global

Credits:

Host/Author: Mike Reynolds

Producer/Editor: Sarah James

Following a spring box office rebound, the latest "MediaTalk" episode highlights why the industry is entering summer 2026 with real momentum. S&P Global's box office experts, Wade Holden and Mac Mathews, point to a slate packed with major franchises and originals — from The Devil Wears Prada 2 to Supergirl, a new Spider-Man entry, and Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey — as key reasons the market could push past the $4 billion summer threshold.

The conversation also underscores a meaningful audience shift: Gen Z is increasingly shaping theatrical performance, especially around low-budget horror, event films, and rediscovered catalog IP that gained traction through streaming. At the same time, the success of female-skewing sequels and musical biopics suggests the box office is becoming less dependent on superhero titles alone.

Is the 2026 box office recovery starting to look structural rather than cyclical?

And will wider theatrical windows become the new expectation — even for streaming-native studios?

More S&P Global content:

Kagan Media & Telecom Summit 2026

Featured experts:

Wade Holden, senior research analyst at S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan

Mac Mathews, associate director of editorial, design and publishing at S&P Global

Credits:

Host/Author: Mike Reynolds

Producer/Editor: Sarah James

In this episode of "MediaTalk," the S&P Global Market Intelligence team brings together reporters from around the globe to unpack the seismic shifts underway in the space technology sector. With SpaceX's highly anticipated IPO on the horizon, the team explores how this historic event could reshape not just the space industry, but the broader IPO market.

Key insights include the changing dynamics between SpaceX and the US government, with Defense Department contracts now outpacing NASA's. The team examines how these factors complicate investor visibility and legal protections — especially as SpaceX considers waiving traditional lock-up periods.

The episode also spotlights Starlink's rapid growth and its first-mover advantage in the US satellite internet market, as well as Amazon's strategic moves with its Globalstar acquisition. Space technology M&A activity is surging in 2026, even as the rise of mega constellations prompts questions about market capacity and competition.

As the space tech sector enters a new orbit, MediaTalk asks:

Will SpaceX's IPO set a new standard for tech listings, or drain capital from smaller players?

Are mega constellations and vertical integration the keys to long-term dominance, or will new entrants disrupt the status quo?

More S&P Global content:

Kagan Media & Telecom Summit 2026

Featured experts:

• Stefan Modrich, tech policy reporter for S&P Global Market Intelligence
• Nick Lazzaro, capital markets reporter at S&P Global Market Intelligence
• Ikrama Ranjha, newswriter at S&P Global Market Intelligence
• Mark Gubagaras, newswriter at S&P Global Market Intelligence
• Iuri Struta, tech capital markets reporter at S&P Global Market Intelligence
• Sarah James, TMT News Lead at S&P Global Market Intelligence

Credits:

• Host/Author: Mike Reynolds
• Producer/Editor: Sarah James

www.spglobal.com

www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence

The 2026 upfront season has arrived, when media companies showcase their upcoming content and advertisers seize the opportunity to secure prime placement in front of millions of viewers. This strategic period sets the stage for the entire TV season, influencing buying decisions and gauging the health of the advertising ecosystem.

In this episode, Mike Reynolds sits down with Sean Cunningham, President and CEO of the Video Advertising Bureau, to explore how the media landscape is transforming. From streaming giants reshaping consumer expectations to the rise of connected TV, the conversation reveals why premium video content — defined by professional production, emotional engagement, brand safety, and transparency — remains the gold standard for marketers, regardless of platform.

But there's a catch: questions about long-accepted currencies have created measurement instability, particularly for cable entertainment and key demographics. Cunningham discusses whether first-party data from media companies might be the next solution to the industry's currency crisis.

Will this year's upfront finally bring stability to video advertising, or are we headed for another round of marketplace uncertainty? And as non-human traffic dominates the internet, how will marketers ensure their premium video investments actually reach real consumers?

More S&P Global content:

Kagan Media & Telecom Summit 2026

Featured experts:

• Sean Cunningham, VAB CEO and President

Credits:

• Host/Author: Mike Reynolds
• Producer/Editor: Sarah James

www.spglobal.com

www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence

After decades of playing second fiddle to cable and satellite, the broadcast industry is back in a big way. Station groups are getting bigger, sports rights deals are getting more expensive and the line between broadcast and streaming content is blurring. In this "MediaTalk" episode, S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan's Justin Nielson and Scott Robson unpack what they saw on the ground at the NAB Show and a parallel sports tech conference in Las Vegas.

First: Are traditional broadcasters back in the live sports game? The answer is yes — but differently. Station groups are stepping into the vacuum left by regional sports networks, picking up local NBA, MLB and NHL games, while ATSC 3.0, or next-gen TV, deployments in markets like Brazil and the Caribbean showcase how broadcast is evolving into a hybrid, data-rich IP platform.

Second: Where are the new revenue and profit engines? Political and sports remain core, but experimentation is happening around alternative game casts, ultra-low latency streaming for in-game betting and AI-driven creative. At the same time, transformational M&A deals, including a potential SiriusXM-iHeartMedia combination, offer opportunities for synergies. For media, tech and advertising leaders, this episode is a concise tour of where the next wave of sports, news and ad dollars is likely to flow.

More S&P Global content:

MediaTalk | Season 4 | Ep. 16 - Betting on the Future: How Prediction Markets Are Changing the Game

Featured experts:

• Justin Nielson, head of Kagan Research at S&P Global Market Intelligence.
• Scott Robson, principal analyst at S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan.

Credits:

• Host/Author: Mike Reynolds
• Producer/Editor: Sarah James

www.spglobal.com

www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence

"MediaTalk" host Mike Reynolds and S&P Global Market Intelligence tech policy reporter Stefan Modrich dive into the rapidly evolving world of prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. They explore how these platforms, which allow users to wager on everything from political events to sports outcomes, are blurring the lines between traditional betting and financial markets. The conversation covers regulatory challenges, particularly the ongoing debate between state and federal oversight led by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and highlights the platforms' growing influence in mainstream media and professional sports leagues. The episode also addresses concerns around market manipulation, insider trading, and the ethical boundaries of prediction markets, especially as they intersect with AI and controversial "death contracts." As these platforms expand and attract partnerships with major leagues and media organizations, their regulatory future remains uncertain.

More S&P Global content:

Prediction markets create insider trading loophole as enforcement lags

Featured experts:

• Stefan Modrich, tech policy reporter for S&P Global Market Intelligence

Credits:

• Host/Author: Mike Reynolds
• Producer/Editor: Sarah James

www.spglobal.com

www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence

With the 2026 US midterms shaping up to be a major windfall for political advertising, this "MediaTalk" episode unpacks how media companies should position for it.

Control of Congress is up for grabs, with a handful of "toss-up" Senate and House races. On top of that are the gubernatorial races. Taken together, record-level spending is expected. Local broadcast remains a cornerstone, with estimates of $4 billion in political revenue for local TV. Meanwhile, connected TV is no longer incremental — it's becoming a primary budget line thanks to targeting and reach beyond shrinking pay TV. The conversation also highlights how station groups with heavy exposure in battleground states — and potentially a reshaped landscape if major consolidation proceeds — could disproportionately benefit.

The episode considers how local broadcasters should package linear and connected TV to defend pricing power. Also, which states and ad markets will drive the most spending?

More S&P Global content:

Technology, Media, & Telecoms

Featured experts:

• Steve Passwaiter, president of Silver Oak Political
• Peter Leitzinger, analyst at S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan.

Credits:

• Host/Author: Mike Reynolds
• Producer/Editor: Sarah James

www.spglobal.com

www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence

Sports media is entering a period of rapid change: rights costs keep climbing, distribution is splintering, and leagues are rethinking how to reach fans who no longer live in a single bundle. In this "MediaTalk" episode, S&P Global Market Intelligence's Kagan team unpacks the globalization of sports rights, the shift of local games from collapsing regional sports networks to broadcast stations, and the accelerating move to direct-to-consumer streaming that promises reach but tests pricing tolerance. The conversation also flags how 2026-era mega-events and the rapid evolution of sports betting and prediction markets are adding new revenue streams — and new complexity — for media companies trying to balance scale, exclusivity, and profitability.

If fragmentation is the new normal, who will win the customer relationship: leagues, platforms, or aggregators?

How much more will fans pay before "must-have" sports becomes a subscription breaking point?

More S&P Global content:

• Navigating the Chaos of Sports Media Rights Fragmentation
• Maximizing Sports Media Rights Value: Benchmarking, Negotiation, & Market Intelligence in 2026

Featured experts:

Justin Nielson, principal analyst at S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan.

Scott Robson, principal analyst at S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan.

Michael Johnson, research analyst at S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan

Credits:

• Host/Author: Mike Reynolds
• Producer/Editor: Sarah James

www.spglobal.com

www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence

The Masters may be a tradition unlike any other, but its media rights strategy is evolving in a very modern way as more coverage migrates to streaming. Starting in 2026, Augusta National adds Amazon Prime Video as a new domestic partner, giving Prime two exclusive hours of live coverage on Thursday and Friday before ESPN's afternoon coverage begins. CBS remains the weekend broadcast home.

This "MediaTalk" episode explores whether the streaming expansion will enhance the Masters' mystique — or dilute the scarcity that makes it so valuable?

The conversation turns to PGA Tour CEO Brian Rolapp's proposed structural overhaul—fewer but bigger events, more presence in major U.S. markets, and even promotion/relegation — framing it as a bid to increase competitive intensity and year-round narrative. If the PGA Tour adopts relegation and fewer "bigger" events, does that strengthen the product — or risk alienating core fans and sponsors?

Also discussed is Versant's evolving sports portfolio, streaming's expanding role across rights packages, LIV's uneven US traction despite wider distribution, and the outlook for TGL/WTGL.

More S&P Global content:

• Navigating the Chaos of Sports Media Rights Fragmentation
• Maximizing Sports Media Rights Value: Benchmarking, Negotiation, & Market Intelligence in 2026

Featured experts:

Scott Robson, principal analyst at S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan.

Michael Johnson, research analyst at S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan

Credits:

• Host/Author: Mike Reynolds
• Producer/Editor: Sarah James

www.spglobal.com

www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence

"MediaTalk" delves into the ins and outs of baseball media rights, distribution disruption, and the business model pressure points shaping MLB's next decade. The episode unpacks how MLB's new ABS (Automated Ball-Strike) challenge system adds a layer of on-field strategy without fully replacing human umpires, reflecting a broader theme: incremental tech adoption with high-stakes outcomes.

From there, the conversation pivots to the World Baseball Classic's breakout viewership, underscoring how premium events can generate outsized audience demand and advertiser value. The biggest story, though, is structural: the collapse and restructuring of the regional sports network (RSN) ecosystem and MLB's expanding role in local production and direct-to-consumer distribution. With top franchises still collecting massive local rights fees while others face uncertainty, the episode highlights widening competitive imbalance — fueling concerns that the next labor fight could center on caps, floors, and revenue sharing.

Will MLB successfully centralize local streaming by 2028 — or will big-market teams block the model to protect premium RSN economics?

Finally, the episode examines why Netflix and NBC want curated MLB inventory and what that signals about sports' role in reducing churn and owning "appointment" windows.

As streamers cherry-pick tentpole games, what's the next must-have rights package that will reshape sports media valuations?

More S&P Global content:

• Navigating the Chaos of Sports Media Rights Fragmentation
• Maximizing Sports Media Rights Value: Benchmarking, Negotiation, & Market Intelligence in 2026

Featured experts:

Scott Robson, principal analyst at S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan.

Michael Johnson, research analyst at S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan

Credits:

• Host/Author: Mike Reynolds
• Producer/Editor: Sarah James

www.spglobal.com

www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence