Medley Advisors

By dissolving the national assembly and daring his compatriots to elect a right-wing populist government, French President Emmanuel Macron has revived questions over fiscal stability in Europe that had been buried for more than a decade.

With the first round of the legislative election coming on Sunday, Medley Advisors' European analysts Tim Jones and Pepijn Bergsen discuss the market risks surrounding both likely outcomes.    

On 12 June, soon after the Federal Open Market Committee released its statement, updated projections, and "dot plot", and Chair Jay Powell ended his press conference, Medley's Fed-watcher Michael Redmond discussed what it all meant with Nick Stadtmiller.  

On Sunday 2 June, Mexicans will vote for a new president, a federal lower house and senate, eight state governors, deputies for 31 state congresses, and 1,580 municipal officials. President Andrés Manuel López Obrador is term-limited but his chosen successor Claudia Sheinbaum holds a substantial lead over rival Xóchitl Gálvez. 

To preview the results and their aftermath, Fernando Posadas, Medley Advisors' Mexico analyst, fields questions from colleagues together with Madelynn Einhorn (election modeller) and Ignacio Labaqui (regional specialist).

For an update on Chinese macro trends and their impact on energy demand, Earl Han (Head of Medley Advisors) brought together Brian Jackson (Medley's China analyst) and Jianan Sun (Energy Aspect's China analyst). 

While industrial output is stabilising, its composition is changing. Something "already clear in the first few months' data for the year is that we also have this compositional shift towards exports," says Brian. "You see that very clearly within one particular industrial sector, which is electronics and computers manufacturing ... That probably has energy implications because it perhaps is going to be less energy-intensive or use different types of inputs, for example, compared to something like cement, glass, steel, etc which are within the construction space".

It's been five months since Javier Milei was sworn in as Argentina's president - a head of state taking a chainsaw to his state with no Congressional majority and in a country with a long tradition of street resistance. 

In response to the first stage of his shock therapy, the economy is expected to shrink by more than 3% this year while inflation is touching 290%. Yet the president is sustaining his approval ratings as Congress prepares to approve a second dose of therapy.

"Success would be that next year we see 30% inflation and at least 3% growth," says Ignacio Labaqui, Medley Advisors' Argentina specialist, in this edited internal meeting. He discusses the administration's next policy steps, IMF support and criticism, labour adjustment, and Milei's approach to China and the US.