MexMoves

We interview Sofía Ramírez Aguilar, head of México, ¿Cómo Vamos?, a leading Mexican think tank, on one of Mexico’s biggest economic challenges: labour-market informality, and what to do about it.

About 55% of employed Mexicans work informally, meaning they lack social-security or legal protections. Beyond that, informal workers earn less than half what formal workers make.

Sofía explains why informality has proved so persistent, and how it is connected to Mexico’s low productivity, education, gender inequalities and company size. The productivity divide is huge: microbusinesses employ 41% of Mexico’s workers but generate only 16% of economic value added, while large companies employ 29% and produce 54%. The issue is therefore not simply how to formalise workers, but how doing so can help Mexico create more productive firms and better jobs.

First, Eduardo and Damian discuss the week’s big economic stories:

* Delta-Aeroméxico wins in court: why the Delta JV is central to Aeroméxico’s network economics.

* US-Canada trade talks collapse: could Canada’s confrontation with Washington actually make a Mexico-US bilateral deal more likely?

* The Mexican economy: Banxico upgrades its 2026 growth forecast to 1.5%, helped by booming non-auto exports and electronics.

* Mexico’s AI hardware boom: Pegatron, Foxconn, Inventec, Wiwynn and Flex are helping turn Mexico into a massive supplier of servers and data-centre equipment to the US.

* Enterprise AI comes to Mexico: Primero’s US$12 million seed round and Wonderful’s Mexican expansion show how implementing and developing platforms for AI inside large, complicated Mexican companies is becoming a hot business.

Is Mexico’s economy finally turning a corner, or simply stabilizing at a disappointingly low growth rate?

This week on MexMoves, we interview Gabriel Lozano, Chief Mexico Economist at J.P. Morgan, to discuss the economic outlook for the rest of 2026: why investment is lacking, the weakness of auto and strength of non-auto exports, Mexico’s growing role in US data-center roll-out, the impact of Plan México, why the Peso is so strong, and what to expect from USMCA negotiations.

First Eduardo and Damian look at the week’s biggest business stories: the World Cup tourism boom that wasn’t, Carlos Slim’s hit from Braskem Idesa’s Chapter 11 agreed restructuring, Mexico’s growing tariff wall against China, Omnilife’s Texas manufacturing bet, rising credit-card default rates, and FEMSA and QED’s new head of Spin Credit.

Antonio Tejedo, Vice President of Investor Relations at Grupo TRAXIÓN, joins us to discuss the transformation of Mexico’s leading transportation and logistics company, from a traditional trucking operator into an integrated platform spanning freight, people mobility, warehousing, brokerage, technology and supply-chain management.

We look at how TRAXIÓN was built through acquisitions, how nearshoring challenges and tariffs are hurting the company, the shift towards a more asset-light model, and how the Solistica acquisition from Femsa is going. We also discuss investor perceptions of the company, and why its valuation is so discounted.

We also interview Mauricio Schwartzmann of PayTech Yuno following the company’s latest funding round of $45mn, on how AI is changing payments, banking and financial infrastructure. Mauricio explains why he left his plum job as Mastercard Mexico Head to join his former Rappi colleagues at startup Yuno.

Before the interviews, Eduardo and Damian discuss Tiendas 3B’s extraordinary growth in 2Q26 and how hard discount and e-commerce are squeezing traditional retailers, and ICA’s decision to buy out Fluor after more than three decades together, and what that transaction could say about Pemex paying suppliers going forward.

They also reflect on the passing of Miguel Mancera Aguayo, former head of Banco de México and one of Mexico’s most admired and consequential public servants, whose role in securing central-bank autonomy in 1994 helped shape Mexico for the good.

They discuss Kavak’s striking claims about AI transforming its business, the latest twists and turns in USMCA negotiations, and ask why the Mexican Peso is so strong and if that is a good or bad thing.

We talk to Ricardo Pintado, Managing Director at UBS Wealth Management, about how Mexican entrepreneurs and wealthy families should approach investing, succession and the differences to creating wealth from preserving it.

We discuss how a global private bank’s value proposition differs from that of a commercial bank, brokerage firm, independent adviser or family office. We also explore why there will always be room for trusted human advisers, even as AI transforms investment management and the broader financial sector.

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In the rest of the episode:

* Pemex’s stronger 2Q26 results: Revenue, production and refining improved, while financial debt declined. But questions remain.

* Mercado Libre’s blow-out 2Q26 top-line results: The company reached $10bn quarterly sales, 50% above last year. Within that, Mexico again delivered exceptional growth, with revenue up 55% and fintech expanding by more than 70%, as the e-commerce giant continued to gain share. However, weaker operating margins weighed on the share price.

* Possible SuKarne sale: The family-controlled Culiacan-based Mexican protein producer could be valued at more than US$2 billion, according to Reuters. We look at how SuKarne became a market leader by vertically integrating, selling each cut of meat around the world where it commands the highest value.

* 1H26 Mexico-US trade: Mexico’s bilateral trade surplus with the US continues to widen, as AI infrastructure exports replace automobiles as the key export driver. But Taiwan’s and Vietnam’s exports to the US are expanding even faster than Mexico’s, and they reported even larger trade surpluses with the US than Mexico. On USMCA, we examine the strategic debate between accommodating US pressure and taking a more assertive position.

* Avocado exports: Security concerns have again interrupted new shipments from Michoacán, highlighting how insecurity is acting as a break on growth.

We spoke with Gabriela Cámara, the star restaurateur behind Contramar, Entremar, Caracol de Mar and Itacate in Mexico City, as well as the recently opened Cantina Contramar in Las Vegas.

She explains why the iconic Contramar has been full for nearly 30 years, what it takes to run a busy Mexico City restaurant day after day, and why a restauranteur needs to be both businessperson and chef. We also discuss her experience opening restaurants in the United States, the global rise of high-end Mexican cuisine, sustainability, and the opportunities and tensions created by gentrification in Mexico City.

Before the interview, Eduardo and Damián discuss the week’s top Mexico business news.

BBVA México’s succession. Global risk head José Luis Elechiguerra returns home to become the new Mexico viceroy as Eduardo Osuna moves to the chairmanship after more than a decade as CEO, handing over by far Mexico’s strongest banking franchise. The new CEO’s in-tray includes managing AI & Technological change, fighting off fierce incumbent and fintech competition, dealing with regulators keen to promote financial inclusion and digitalization but unsure how to, and balancing growth versus asset quality.

FEMSA’s stock falls even as it reports blow out sales. OXXO posted almost 10% same-store sales growth on the World Cup boost. Coffee is becoming a bigger part of the strategy, and SPIN is taking its first steps into lending. Investors focused on lower gross margins at OXXO as the company pushed harder on affordability, and seem worried about a possible World Cup hangover.

Cemex’s recovery continues. Housing, infrastructure and the first signs of Plan México spending lifted cement volumes in Mexico as management continued cutting costs.

Televisa. The telecom turnaround continued, but weaker results at World Cup-free Univision weighed on the broader story.

We also cover Kia’s expanded investment in Nuevo León, stronger-than-expected GDP and trade figures, and Mexico’s decisive win (so far) in the Vulcan arbitration, which reduced a US$1.7 billion claim to about US$15 million.

This week, we speak with Francisco Ruiz Maza, Mexico Country Manager at Russell Reynolds Associates, one of the world’s leading executive search and leadership advisory firms.

Francisco explains how Russell Reynolds identifies and evaluates candidates for CEO and board positions in Mexico, what Mexican companies look for in their senior leaders, and how deep Mexico’s C-suite talent bench is. We also discuss the trends reshaping Mexican boards of directors.

Before the interview, Eduardo and Damián discuss the week’s business news:

* What second-quarter corporate results reveal about Mexico’s economy: a weak consumer, resilient banks and telecoms, strong mining earnings, and pressure on aviation.

* La Casa de Toño is reportedly exploring a sale at a valuation above US$400 million. Will potential buyers bite?

* What the Taco Bell cyclospora outbreak and its possible link to Mexican rocket lettuce could mean for Mexico’s agricultural exports and food-safety reputation.

We speak with Ana Cristina Gadala-Maria, Principal at QED Investors, the world’s premier fintech venture-capital firm and among the most active in Mexico, with investments including Bitso, Konfío, Aplazo, Covalto, Kavak, Félix Pago and FEMSA’s new lending venture.

She explains what QED now looks for in Mexican startups, why fintechs are becoming multi-product companies, and where the next opportunities lie, from cross-border payments and stablecoins to AI. We also discuss why Mexico still trails Brazil in digital payments and why QED invested in FEMSA’s new lending business, atypically a carve-out.

First, Eduardo and Damian cover the week’s business news:

* The World Cup’s smaller-than-expected economic impact, despite Mexico’s strong performance as a host.

* Weak June ANTAD sales and the changing mix of consumer spending.

* Nu’s banking licence, exaggerated claims about its size, and the harder task of turning “15 million customers” into profitable primary relationships.

* Mexico’s emerging AI-infrastructure opportunity.

* Chipotle opens its first actual Mexican restaurant.

We speak with Francisco Ramos, Netflix’s Vice President of Content for Latin America, about why Mexico has become one of the company’s most important global creative hubs, and what Netflix now needs to do to stay ahead as competition from YouTube creators and influencer-led content rises.

Since launching in Mexico in 2011, Netflix has grown its local team to nearly 400 people, filmed in more than 50 cities across 25 states, and announced a US$1bn commitment to Mexican productions over the next four years. We discuss the economics of major productions, how culture can become a driver of growth, competitiveness and national influence, and why Mexico has so far produced relatively few truly global streaming hits.

First, Eduardo and Damian cover the week’s business news:

* Toyota to gradually move Tacoma production from Baja California to San Antonio: why the shift from Tijuana to Texas is a warning sign for Mexico’s export model as USMCA uncertainty bites.

* China’s rise in Mexico’s auto market: domestic vehicle sales are at record levels, but a growing share is coming from imported Chinese brands, making the industrial story less positive than the sales numbers suggest.

* Equifax buys Círculo de Crédito for US$750m: what the deal says about the value of Mexican credit data, why U.S. firms will now fully control the country’s credit-information infrastructure, and how this could benefit competition in fintech and lending.

* Aviva raises US$18m: why some investors believe Aviva’s hybrid physical-digital model may be better suited to expanding credit access in the informal economy in Mexico than app-only finance.

* Mexico’s investment rebound: gross fixed investment finally bounced in April, helped by construction and public spending, but private productive investment, while improving, remains soft.

We speak with Rafael García, VP of External Affairs at TC Energy and President of CanCham Mexico.

We discuss Mexico’s energy infrastructure needs, TC Energy’s role in the country’s natural gas pipeline network, and why reliable infrastructure to facilitate low-cost natural gas imports from Texas is key for Mexico’s competitive electricity generation, nearshoring and industrial growth. We also look at how the Canada-Mexico business relationship is evolving as both countries navigate USMCA and seek a common front with the United States.

First Eduardo and Damian discuss some of the main news of the week:

* The USMCA outlook: the treaty remains in force, but the US has opened the door to annual reviews for the next decade unless a new agreement is reached.

* Mexico’s top 1H26 stock market moves, focusing on Diablos and Fibra Nova on the upside.

* Tulum’s tourism troubles.

* UBS data showing Mexico’s fast-growing millionaires.

We interview Leandro Cuccioli, Senior VP at Mercado Libre, on the company’s Mexico strategy, booming e-commerce sales, Mercado Pago’s fintech ambitions, the impact of AI adoption, market concerns around operating margins that have hit the stock price, and the company’s long-term growth opportunities.

First, Eduardo and Damian dissect the main business and economic news of the week, which brought some unusually positive headlines for Mexico: stronger growth data, a welcome low-inflation surprise, renewed momentum behind clean energy investment, and Sinda’s potential IPO as one of the more interesting new Mexican silver stories.

We then discuss two new reports: Hi Ventures on AI adoption across Latin America, and UBS on billionaire family offices, and what makes Latin American plutocrats different from their peers elsewhere.’