MGR Unplugged

Manuel and David have a casual conversation reflecting on the past 30 days, since COVID-19 become a serious part of our lives.  From conspiracy theories to the crude reality of what America and the world is facing today and how it is affecting our lives.

• Is this the new normal?  Are we in a game simulation and being played on?
• What are your favorite podcasts to listen to these days
• It’s actually physical distancing rather than social distancing these days
• What social media platforms are doing better during this confinement period?
• Altucher’s interview with Tyler Cowen
• The increase consumption of Audio books, Netflix, Amazon Prime and other streaming media.
• We have zero sporting events to watch or talk about.  
• Do you think the NBA will come back this season? What about the NFL?  Is the season at risk? 
• Minimalist behavior. Happy getting rid of all the stuff that we haven’t used for a long time.
• Now we realize how valuable those minimum wage employees are…  Our economy relies on them to keep us going.
• US Companies should learn from this and shift production to manufacture in the USA versus relying on China or any other country for essential items that become unavailable or scarce at times like this.

 Some silver linings:

• Airline travel will be very cheap when all this is over, add to that low fuel prices…
• Major cities are reporting cleaner air and less pollution.  Factories closed, driving reduced, fewer flights, cruises, etc.  This is turn is also saving or extending our lives.
• The confinement is decreasing traffic, which also means fewer or no fatalities or severe injuries from driving accidents
• Flu cases are also down compared to previous years.

What do you think?  Take a listen and let us know your thoughts.

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Manuel and David try to make sense of everything happening around us and around the world.  From the new stimulus package to how each of us -confined or not- are dealing with this crisis.

• What are we doing now that you weren’t doing or doing so much before confinement?  Exercise, reading, business planning, reflecting?
• The government stimulus package just passed.  What that means for us and how much will it help.
• With people confined in their homes, Facebook and Twitter traffic is increasing, yet their ad revenue is decreasing. 
• With more businesses closing during the pandemic, ad campaigns are being paused around all ad channels.
• American companies need to focus on building factories in the US.  “Made in the USA” should be the new normal.  One of the few companies with factories in the USA large enough to produce masks, ventilators, in a short term, is Tesla.  Even Apple can’t build anything to help with the crisis since they manufacture everything in China.
• Why most US Pharmaceutical companies for our own medications and medical supplies.  It puts the US in a very fragile and vulnerable situation.
• On a positive note, if companies start planning on moving production and manufacturing to the US, a good long term result would be more jobs in the US and less outsourcing to other countries.  We could close our borders anytime during global crisis or pandemics and still be completely self-sufficient.  The country as a whole in quarantine would survive just fine.
• Another lesson from this crisis is that Colleges around the US and the world should decrease their tuition significantly since we’ve finally proved that distance learning is just as effective as on campus classes.

Other thoughts to consider when the Pandemic is over.

• Return all the toilet paper you’ve accumulated for no reason.  This was never a diarrhea crisis
• Since you have so much food hoarded in your house, consider giving it to the homeless before it expires
• Stop online orders such as Amazon for 30-60 days and shop local instead to help your local vendors
• Dine out, take a road trip, travel, have fun with your friends
• Enjoy current live sporting events rather than highlights from 10 years ago
• Keep washing your hands frequently.  That’s always a good habit
• The same as far as covering your mouth with your elbow when you cough or sneeze
• Send a thank you note to your doctor and nurses at your local clinic even if you’ve been fortunate enough to not visiting them lately

What do you think?  Take a listen and let us know your thoughts.

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Manuel and David Gil go over some of their projections with regards to COVID-19 implications over the next 3 months and beyond.

How soon will the economy recover once the virus is under control and people around the world resume their normal lives?  Will the new ‘normal’ be different?  

Manuel thinks that once the Coronavirus is under control and the curve of new cases flattens, the economy will recover at a faster pace than in previous cases.  In other words, this market correction was not caused by a financial bubble but rather by a severe crack in our health care and prevention system.

David thinks that COVID-19 has exposed deeper economic and unsustainable cracks in the world economy and it has simply accelerated a new type of world economic crisis that was doomed to happen in the next 12-18 months.  He explains why...

What are other social implications of lock-downs around the world?  People and families are forced to stay home for weeks and months... Will it cause an increase in divorce rates... or will we see a boom in "Corona babies" nine months from now?

What do you think?  Take a listen and let us know your thoughts.

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We just can’t get away from the COVID-19 topic.  In this episode Manuel and David discuss the latest developments about what’s now been declared a Pandemic.  There’s some cursing, but for the most part, we keep it civilized.  Let’s all do our part to get out of this situation as soon as possible and get back to our regular lives!

• ·       The WHO declares COVID-19 a Pandemic
• ·       President Trump addresses the nation with updates and resolutions.  What we like or don’t like.   Too little too late?  
• ·       Travel ban from Europe.  Fair, unfair, will it help?
• ·       The evolution of COVID-19 has been massively different between Europe and the US. While Europe has 23,000 confirmed cases and over 1,000 deaths, the US has about 1,300 cases and 40 deaths.  Maybe closing our borders after all is justified, at least for the time being. 
• ·       Is the European Union really united in the fight to mitigate the spread of Coronavirus or is each country acting on their own? 
• ·       As much as we blame China for initiating this virus, the fact is that they reacted much faster to the situation locking down the country before the situation got out of control.
• ·       CDC response.  Too late to “Control and Prevent”? 
• ·       Rapid sequence of events this week.  Major sporting leagues cancellations: NBA, NCAA, NHL, European Soccer Leagues.
• ·       Sports figures and celebrities join the unwanted list of confirmed cases: Rudy Gobert, Tom Hanks…  Is that what it takes for all of us to pay attention and take it seriously?
• ·       Stock market reaction or overreaction.  Justified?  We’re now in Bear Market territory.  It’s been a long Bull run.  What can we expect? 
• ·       The good news: This will go away.  Probably not in 3-4 weeks, but in 3-4 months.  Let’s be patient and all cooperate. 

THIS IS WHAT WE KNOW SO FAR:

• ·       Being a respiratory viral disease, people who smoke or have smoked in the past, have diabetes, high blood pressure, heart disease, and older people are generally more at risk of being severely affected.  But again, this doesn’t mean that all other people are not at risk.  It simply means that healthier people will have a greater chance of surviving with less severe symptoms. 
• ·       Practicing greater social distance is a good start: Avoiding large groups, close proximity to other people in social situations, movie theaters, crowded restaurants, airplanes, group gatherings, concerts, etc. will help decrease spreading the virus and the number of infected people.  Less infected people = we can contain and overcome the Pandemic much faster.
• ·       This is one of the cases when erring on the side of caution is better than not doing enough.  That doesn’t mean panicking.  But rather, a rational reaction to a situation that is upon us and that we know very little about.
• ·       And above all, washing our hands frequently, avoiding touching our faces (nose and mouth specifically) and eliminating hand-shakes, hugs, and other displays of affection for the time being, is the best way to show love to our loved ones.
• ·       Something to keep in mind: The unpredictable nature of this virus is what makes it more dangerous.  The other problematic part is the asymptomatic nature of this virus just as how differently it affects different people.  Don’t be a hero.  Heroes save other people.  They don’t’ get them infected.
• ·       Right now the curve of cases is still concave up for the rest of the world, meaning the cases keep increasing at a rapid rate.  By contrast, China is already flat and even showing a concave down curve.  In other words, they have reached their peak and are on their way to contain the spread with fewer cases every day.  
• ·       We can all blame the government, WHO, CDC, and all other organizations, but to solve this crisis fast, we all need to do our part too.  Let’s get over this pandemic soon!

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In this episode Manuel is joined by David to discuss some of the unintended consequences of the new "Coronavirus Economy."

Are we all becoming more health-conscious? As Coronavirus cases increase, flu cases are down.  Keep washing your hands people!

California declares state of emergency.  Not good for the so-called "5th Largest Economy in the World."

What will China do to overcome the economic backlash.  Printing more money can only go so far.  They've already bought a large number of American iconic companies, prime real estate, and farm land.  Read More

Are we going to make China great again by selling to their investment groups all of our assets?  Read More

As manufacturing in China comes to a halt, will small businesses with no contingency plans able to survive?  Read More

In the meantime, those who are surviving are taking advantage of the situation.  What is Amazon doing to fight prize gouging?  Is it enough? Read More

In other news, Robinhood had another server outage, only this time it happened when the market went up almost 5% leaving its investors literally in the dark.  One more blow to Robinhood that is already struggling to survive.  Read More

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In this episode, Manuel is joined by David Gil as they go over the Coronavirus global and US numbers.  While Manuel thinks most people and news outlets are overreacting and creating panic, David strongly opposes his opinion and thinks that the US and the world are not reacting or implementing solutions fast enough.  And oh, yeah, there’s a lot of arguing in this episode.  So sit back, relax, and enjoy the show… and please, let us know your thoughts too.  It’s not about being right, it’s about getting it right.

"So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is...fear itself — nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance."  Frankly D. Roosevelt

Live Map of Corona Virus Outbreak:

Data from February 27, 2020

Total Confirmed Cases Worldwide: 82,500

Total Recovered Cases: 33,252

Around 40% Recovered Cases

Total Deaths: 2,810

In China: 

78.5K cases

2,750 deaths in China

= 3.5% Death Rate

Outside China:

4,100 cases 

About 60 deaths outside of China (that includes border Asian countries and South Korea 1,800 cases)

= 1.3% Death Rate

Death Rate by Age in China: The study shows that older adults have been hit hardest by COVID-19. 

• Among those ages 80 and older, the death rate was 14.8%, 
• 8.0% for those ages 70 to 79; 
• 3.6% for those ages 60 to 69; 
• 1.3% for those ages 50 to 59; 
• 0.4% for those ages 40 to 49, and 
• 0.2% for those ages 10 to 39. 
• No deaths have been reported among children from birth to age 9.

The study also identifies which existing illnesses put patients at risk. It puts cardiovascular disease at number one, followed by diabetes, chronic respiratory disease and hypertension.

Other scientists have estimated there could be 10 times as many people infected as are ending up in the official statistics. That means the overall death rate is likely to be lower than the one reported by most studies.

Comparing Coronavirus with the Flu:

The common flu causes up to 5 million cases of severe illness worldwide and kills up to 650,000 worldwide people every year, according to the World Health Organization 

 
In the US: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that so far this season, there have been at least 15 million flu illnesses for the 2019-2020 season, 140,000 hospitalizations and 8,200 deaths in the U.S. The CDC reports there have been 54 reported flu-related pediatric deaths this season from Influenza B viruses.  View Source

 Types of Influenza Virus (WHO).  

Using Masks: The CDC does not recommend face masks for people who are well and without symptoms. The agency does recommend face masks for people who show symptoms of the virus and those taking care of someone sick with the virus (including health care workers).

Travel Restrictions from China to the USA:To slow the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) into the United States, CDC is working with public health partners to implement new travel procedures for both non-US and US citizens and permanent residents.

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In this episode:

Q: What is Fulfillment by Amazon (FBA)?

A: FBA is a service provided by Amazon to give its sellers an easy way to fulfill orders. You simply make a shipment to your designated Amazon Fulfillment center, and they will ship your individual products your individual customers.

Q: Is FBA free?

A: Yes and no, while it is free to sign up and use FBA, they will charge you fees that vary depending on the type of product you have. The fee amount is mostly affected by product weight and dimensions.

Q: What percentage of my sales does Amazon take?

A: Amazon takes a percentage cut between 6% & 25% dependent on the category your product is in. For most products Amazon take a 15% cut (This does not include FBA fees).

Q: Do I have to use FBA?

A: No, if you have the proper facilities and infrastructure in place, you may save money by shipping your products to your customers yourself. But you will have to monitor sales daily to make sure you ship your products in a timely manner. Once you ship the product to your customers you must notify Amazon immediately.

Q: When will Amazon pay me?

A: After every sale Amazon will add that money to your seller account balance, and every 14 days, Amazon will disburse that money to your chosen bank account.

Q: If I fulfill products myself, how much does the shipping cost?

A: When you fulfill orders yourself, Amazon platform shipping rates apply to media products (books, music, video, DVD, software, and video games) sold by Professional Sellers, and to all products sold by Individual Sellers. They charge these shipping rates based on the product category and shipping service selected by the buyer, and then pass the amount on to you.

Q: How do my products become Amazon Prime eligible?

A: You must be a member of the FBA program to be Amazon Prime eligible. If you self-fulfill your products, they will not be a part of the Amazon Prime program.

Q: Should I create my own site, or just create Amazon Store?

A: You need both. If you’re selling through your own site, then you are missing out on the massive opportunity that is Amazon. However, if you are only selling on Amazon and not your own site, you are putting your business livelihood in Amazon’s hands. Your site is the home of you brand and where you have ultimate control. Think of Amazon as just another retailer. Just like you might want to get your products in Walmart, Target, Costco, etc. to access distribution and new customer bases, the same principles should be applied to Amazon.

Q: Should I offer all products on Amazon or have some that can only be purchased through my site?

A: This is one of the best strategies to become independent of Amazon. You can have most of your product line on Amazon, but you should reserve some exclusive items for your own site to give customers a reason to leave the Amazon ecosystem and to give you access to their first party data.

Q: Should I use FBA or self-fulfillment?

In most cases we recommend FBA because it means your products are automatically Prime eligible and you don’t have to deal with day to day fulfillment yourself.  Now, some of our clients have the resources to do self-fulfillment, which is great because they can save money on FBA fees. But most who do this are already selling in large volumes on their own eCommerce site.

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• Oscars Review.  Host-Less Oscars fail to impress. The Nielsen company said Sunday night’s audience was down 20 percent from a year ago. 23.6 million viewers.  A new all time low. 
• For comparison, viewership for the Golden Globes (18.3 million) and Grammy Awards (18.7 million) were also off from 2019, but the drop was not as steep.
• $2.6 Million-plus: This is the price tag for a 30-second commercial during the Oscars telecast (54% less than a Super Bowl ad)... while also a quarter of the audience.  Money well spent?
• Disneyland Ticket Price Increase.  $207 (Over the $200 barrier) for the Park Hover Tickets.  Disneyland + Adventure Park.  Is Disney going too far with their price increase this time around?
• Coronavirus Updates, Not just affecting China, but a host of events in other countries requiring traveling to or from Asian countries.
• Mobile World Conference Cancellation after most major attendees cancelled.  Other sporting events also affected. F1 Race, FE Race, Tennis tournaments, Golf tournaments, Soccer games, Tokyo 2020 Olympics qualifying events and even the Olympics are in question now despite Japan's $10B effort to provide a safe environment for all.
• Can we trust China's reporting numbers?  They seem to be all over the place with several inconsistencies in the way "cases" and "deaths" are being reported.  
• Growth at All Costs Updates.  Another company bites the dust.  This time, is "Brandless" which appears to have been also clueless from day 1.
• The MAGA trillion dollar companies.  Microsoft, Apple, Google (Alphabet), Amazon
• YouTube Revenues reported for the first time. YouTube had $15.15 billion in ad revenue for 2019, up 36% from $11.16 billion the year prior, according to Alphabet.  Netflix: $20.16B and Amazon $233B, Apple: $260B.  Disney: $69.57B
• NBA All Star Weekend

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Join Manuel and David as we go over this year's Super Bowl ads.  The ones we loved, the ones that made us laugh, and the ones that simply, didn't impress us at all. 

For a quick list of all ads, (not necessarily our opinion about them) you can click here, courtesy of AdAge.

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On the eve of this year's Super Bowl, we talk about the big game ads, ads, and more ads.  But first:

Barstool acquisition now completed.  Is the Ringer next?

SuperBowl Ads Chat.  And the cost to advertise keeps going up, while ratings keep going down. 

• Total volume among Super Bowl advertisers has grown from $158.4 million in 2005 to $336 million in 2019
• The $336 million CBS received in ad volume for the 2019 Super Bowl was more than the $288 million ABC generated in ad sales for the six-game NBA finals in 2019 or the $191 million Fox received in ad sales for the seven-game World Series in 2019.
• the average cost for a :30 ad was $5.6 million, a record high.
• Among the first-time advertisers in 2020 will be Sabra (hummus), Kellogg’s Pop-Tarts, Little Caesar’s (pizza), Hard Rock International, Bud Light Seltzer and a :60 ad from Facebook.
• There are :60 ads from two Presidential candidates, Donald Trump and Michael Bloomberg.
• Porsche is returning to the big game for the first time since 1997.

The 2019 Super Bowl averaged 98.3 million viewers, the lowest in 11 years. Super Bowl ratings peaked in 2015. Last year’s Super Bowl delivered an average household rating of 41.1, the lowest ratings since 2005,

• In last year’s Super Bowl, there were 32.2 million social media interactions across Facebook, Instagram and Twitter. The top Twitter minute (171,000 interactions) was at 8:23 p.m. (ET) with reaction to the halftime show.  
• The half-time show will have Jennifer Lopez and Shakira.

On a lighter note, Gwyneth Paltrow strikes again.  "Goop Lab" partnership with Netfilx, is that a genius move for her?

And finally, we talk briefly about the Scroll App.   Described as "Twice as fast, no ads, 80% fewer trackers. It’s the sites you love. But on a better internet." 

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