Midas Letter Capital Markets Advisor Steve Misener, CFA breaks down the events shaping global markets this week. Misener discusses why German 10-year bond yields have dropped below zero and what that means for investors. He explains the merits of holding particular currencies in the current climate. Misener highlights catalysts that might be indicative of a broader market slowdown such as the price of oil. He addresses recent speculation that the Fed might cut interest rates. Misener explains how Brexit will impact markets and notes that Northern Ireland is playing a pivotal role in keeping Theresa May’s government afloat.
Transcript:
James West: Hey, Steve Misener joins me now, certified financial analyst extraordinaire. Steve, welcome back.
Steve Misener: Thanks, James. Pleasure to be here.
James West: Steve, I think we’ll delve right into one of your areas of expertise: German bond yields went negative. Now there’s over $10 trillion in debt that yields negatively. what does this portend for the greater economy, and what other currencies might soon follow?
Steve Misener: Well, the 10 trillion, I believe, is an aggregate of global currencies, because the Swiss has been negative for quite a while. I mean, the Swiss is one of the most prudently managed currencies in the world, and just for the viewers so they understand what negative means, it means that give them $100, you buy T-bills for $100, and you get back less than $100 in three or six or nine months, which is an incredible perspective, but it just shows the security associated with that particular currency, or the hardness of that currency, versus other currencies which tend to inflate.
James West: Right. So I mean, this is the thing: what kind of individual, or what kind of institution, says, ‘Here, I’ll give you $10 and I’m fine with you giving me back $9.80’?
Steve Misener: Well, they view that the currency is going to be the security, versus maybe a decline in other currencies. And that’s really, it isn’t just the interest rate, it’s holding that particular currency versus other currencies. And remember, all currency investments are all relative, even if we treat gold as a currency, as some people do. But it’s, Do I want to hold US dollars, do I want to hold Japanese yen, do I want to hold Euros? And it’s always a relative thing, and where you’re going to be. And people that hold short term investments, even large institutions holding that aggregate of $10 trillion, they’re about parking cash or sitting on the sidelines, because they don’t want to hold other things at that moment.
So it does kind of boggle the mind that someone would be agreeable to take less back, even a small haircut, after a few months, but that’s because they believe that that currency, and the market is saying, that that currency is the strongest versus other currencies.
Steve Misener: And even interestingly, the Australian bond, which has always had high yields for decades, the Australian market always had high yields – the 10 year government bond in A