Middle East Analysis

We're always gloriously counter-cultural, a little like the regions we discuss, but if you're looking at the image for this podcast you'll get a rare look at the faces of the two contributors - host James Abbott and the voice of Middle East Analysis Dr Harry Hagopian.

In today's MEA podcast, the first after a short summer break, they discuss Qatar's role in the turbulent weeks of a transitional Afghanistan, Lebanon's slow recovery from economic meltdown, the 1000th 'what next' for Israel / Palestine - particularly the Palestinian Authority, the shifting north African sands of Morocco and two topical Hagopian afterthoughts.

If you want to jump to a particular conversation, here's the timeline:

Start - 2m 3s

Intro

2m 4s - 21m 48s

Qatar's role in transitional Afghanistan

21m 49s - 40m 23s

The authority in the the Palestinian Authority

40m 24s - 50m 55s

Lebanon's slow recovery - Billionaire #1

50m 56s - 1h 3m 26s

Morocco's shifting political sands - Billionaire #2

1h 3m 27s - End

Final thoughts...

Dr Harry Hagopian's message on the one-year anniversary of the blasts that tore through the port in Lebanon's capital Beirut taking lives, livelihoods, hopes and aspirations with them.

If it looks like a coup and smells like a coup, it's a coup... right? Not so fast says Dr Harry Hagopian in this 'Middle East Analysis' podcast as we focus on Tunisia.

When a president dismisses goverment, sacks the prime minister, blocks parliament and orders journalists to leave, surely we're witnessing the classic hallmarks of a coup d'état? Perhaps not. Once the dust had settled on a bold move by Tunisian President Kais Saied, it seems he has 'frozen' parliament for 30 days to address the country's ills. It's a watching brief and Dr Hagopian's willing to wait and see for now.

The two other realities we're looking at are the near failed states of Iraq and Lebanon. Both look like pawns in an international chess game but can either come back from the brink?

All this and more in our hour-long summer podcast.

New leaders are popping up all over the place in the Middle East and North Africa. Today's 'Middle East Analysis' is something of a presidential, prime ministerial and parliamentary podcast as we take a closer look at the newly or recently elected men (obviously) in the limelight.

First to Iran and a man who could well be in line to succeed Supreme Leader Khamenei, President-elect Ebrahim Raisi. How will the 60-year-old conservative cope with Covid and the potential resurrection of the nuclear deal?

Then to Israel as Dr Harry Hagopian gives us his take on the man who has taken over from Benjamin Netanyahu as Prime Minister following his 12 years in office. But what do we know about Naftali Bennett?

Two north African realities are explored - Libya and Algeria.

Libya looks set for elections in December 2021 but the question that always hangs in the air is: how do you get the foreign troops and mercenaries out of the country? Will a new parliament and president take control of Libya's future?

And what of Algeria? Dr Hagopian describes recent elections as "extremely telling" but what exactly do those elections tell us? Especially considering the very low turn out of under a third.

Ahead of Harry's final thoughts, we turn a wistful glance in Lebanon's direction. Akin to a post-World War 20th century meltdown, the 'Switzerland of the Middle East' is in a sorry state with unaffordable high prices and shortages of bread, medicines and petrol.

This 'Middle East Analysis' can only have one topic up for discussion - the escalating violence between Israel and Palestine.

Much has been said and written about the conflict and the nature of its seemingly never-ending cycle of attack and counter attack - not just in the physical sense but the political too.

So many countries with so many vested interests look on. In the case of some states, it would be hard to ascertain whether they're looking at all.

The voice of Middle East Analysis, Dr Harry Hagopian, has a tough job on his hands to pick through the realities for this podcast. A fair and proportional response is, perhaps, what's called for - from whichever angle you view this frustrating, painful conflict.

Rather than regurgitate headlines, Dr Hagopian takes an hour-long look at the history, the politics, the influencers, the neighbours - near and far - the plight of the Palestinians living in Gaza, the West Bank and, indeed in Israel itself. Not to mention the diaspora. Inevitably we look at the Holy City of Jerusalem and whether we can find hope, dignity and humanity in this maelstrom of suffering.

As usual, those who suffer are the men, women and children trying to live their lives in the middle of this simmering cauldron.

April's Middle East Analysis is squeaking in on the last day of the month. In its own way it carries some of the chaos of the region.

Today we focus primarily on Jordan. It's a country close to the heart of our ever-present guest Dr Harry Hagopian. Why? Well, for starters he was born there. But there are other reasons you'll hear more about in our packed 70-minute podcast. What lies behind the royal spat? Why has Prince Hamzah bin Hussein turned to the East Bank-ers and where does this leave him with his half-brother, the King of Jordan?

From: 6 mins 20 secs

Or do you want to hear more about the Palestinian Elections - the first for 15 years? Oh hang on... they've been postponed. Why? Listen for more.

From: 31 mins 25 secs

Sticking with the electoral theme we head to beleaguered Syria - a country we have dedicated many minutes to over the past ten years. President Bashar al-Assad is certainly a survivor. Is this election a shoo-in?

From: 45 mins 17 secs

Finally we ask forgiveness for stretching the Middle East and North Africa to the South Caucasus and a final thought on the Armenian Genocide 106 years after the commemoration date of 24 April 1915.

From: 53 mins 1 sec

Dip in, dip out but we hope you take something from it.

This Middle East Analysis podcast is a one-hour journey through a variety of countries and regional realities. It's a podcast of questions - and questions need answers. To provide them, we look to Dr Harry Hagopian. He frequently tells us he's NOT a prophet - the region has plenty of those - but he IS an international lawyer, commentator and consultant on the Middle East, North Africa and Gulf regions.

Here's what we're asking:

Who are the puppet masters in a country on the brink? Who's the kingmaker who could unlock an election stalemate? Who's brokering 'peace' in two violent conflicts that have paralysed two countries?

What price victory - and what is 'victory' anyway?

Listen to Dr Hagopian on:

Introduction (Start - 1m 51s)

10 years of the conflict in Syria (1m 52s - 15m32s)

Libya - dare to hope? (15m33s - 22m 36s)

Yemen - a supervised ceasefire and an end to the blockade? (22m 37s - 35m 22s)

Israel's elections - who's the kingmaker? (35m 23s - 50m 45s)

A sacred time for the three monotheistic religions (50m 46s - End)

Pope Francis, the spiritual leader of the world's 1.2 billion Catholics, makes an historic visit to Iraq - the first by a Pope - from 5-8 March 2021.

From Saddam Hussein to al-Qaeda to ISIS, the footage beamed onto our screens has often been of terrorist attacks, conflict and destruction - all played out with the people of Iraq trying to survive in the middle. This is the first topic we cover on this 'Middle East Analysis' podcast with our guest Dr Harry Hagopian. Will it be a positive visit that not only supports the country's Christians but all Iraqis?

Our second subject sees us call on the legal brain of Dr Hagopian to analyse the International Criminal Court's 5 February ruling of stating that it has jurisdiction over war crimes committed in the Palestinian territories - a ruling broadly welcomed by Palestinians and criticised by Israel and the US.

Finally we look to the stars and delve into the role the United Arab Emirates is playing in global endeavours to explore space. As the famous David Bowie song might go if re-released 'Ground Control to Hazzaa Ali Almansoori'.

As we're running to space mission durations today, here are the timecodes to help you pick your topic:

Introduction

Start to 3m 4s

Pope's historic visit to Iraq

3m 5s to 26m 52s

International Criminal Court on Palestinian Territories

26m 53s to 51m 24s

UAE's role in space exploration

51m 25s to end

Don't act the prophet and learn to bear the recurring disappointment of one false dawn after another. Two lessons I've learned the hard way after thirteen years of covering the realities of the Middle East, North Africa and Gulf regions with the knowledgeable and engaging Dr Harry Hagopian.

Today's Middle East Analysis podcast, the first of 2021, actually has a positive feel to it in light of the Al-Ula Agreement that brought to an end the three-and-a-half year blockade of Qatar by Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt.

Signed in the Saudi city that bears its name, the agreement has led to a cautious reconciliation that should suit all parties not to mention the outgoing US president Donald Trump.

Respected journalist and analyst Rami Khouri described the tactic of boycotting a state as a "fool's tool" so does Dr Harry Hagopian see this agreement as a template for conflict resolution in the region?

All this and more in January's Middle East Analysis.

Our last Middle East Analysis podcast of 2020 is out ten years to the day since the Tunisian street seller Mohamed Bouazizi self-immolated in frustration and despair triggering what came to be known as the Arab Spring. But what has changed and what have we learned in the last decade?

Resident contributor Dr Harry Hagopian is once again in the chair, remotely, to discuss this and the fourth country in the region to agree to establish full diplomatic relations with Israel - Morocco. But what does this mean for the Sahrawi people of Western Sahara and should an outgoing US President really be brokering these deals?

We then ask whether there's light at the end of the tunnel to bring an end to the spat in the Gulf that has seen a land, sea and air embargo placed on Qatar by fellow Gulf Cooperation Council members Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.

Finally it's Christmas in Bethlehem - but not as we know it. There's an eerie silence on the streets of the West Bank town as COVID-19 restrictions keep pilgrims and visitors at home.

All this and more...