Middle East Analysis

'MENA Gulf 140' sees Dr Harry Hagopian given a mere 140 seconds per topic to discuss the often complex realities playing out in the Middle East, North Africa and Gulf regions.

We touched on it last month but now the legal challenges and allegations of corruption surrounding the US Presidential election have amounted to very little, we expect Joe Biden in the White House from 20 January 2021. So three of the 140-second blocks are allocated to looking in more depth at the US and how its foreign policy moves might impact on the region. Dr Hagopian sees it as "some cosmetic, some radical",

As well as the Israel-Palestine reality, we look at neighbour Jordan before side-stepping into the Gulf region to discuss Oman and Kuwait before ditching the overall mandate for another comment on Nagorno-Karabakh.

It's a lot to pack into 30 minutes but we're hoping it provides food for thought and sparks further reading and engagement.

Today signals a new dawn for our Middle East Analysis podcasts. MEA continues after more than a decade but the format has changed.

In this fast-paced era of online consumption, we're taking on our topics in a shorter, sharper way.

Introducing 'MENA GULF 140'.

So what is it? Well, inspired by the limit to the number of seconds of audio or film you can post to a certain popular micro-blogging platform, 'MENA GULF 140' looks at the realities of the Middle East, North Africa and Gulf regions in a mere 2m 20s per topic.

Each month we'll take on five or six topics with the international lawyer, consultant and analyst Dr Harry Hagopian and the combined answers will make up a brand new 'MENA GULF 140' podcast.

Today:

10 years since the first so-called Arab Spring

Is the Arab world better or worse off?

Normalisation

UAE, Bahrain and now Sudan now 'recognise' Israel after a series of US-brokered deals. What does this mean for other Arab states of the region?

What would a Biden Administration do differently to the Trump Administration regarding Israel/Palestine?

Nagorno-Karabakh

What are the international actors doing to dampen or pour fire on the flames of conflict?

Lebanon

How is Lebanon coping almost 12-weeks after the port-side blast in Beirut?

Libya

Libya's warring sides agreed to a permanent cease-fire on Friday 23 October. Will this end hostilities or is it simply a small step in the right direction?

All this and Dr Hagopian's final thought.

Dr Harry Hagopian, the voice of Middle East Analysis, is fluent in many languages. French? Doesn't even break sweat. For me it's more of a struggle but when reflecting on the horrific blast that ripped through Lebanon's capital Beirut, I found an oft-quoted phrase in my head "plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose". It certainly seems that the more things change the more they stay the same for this resilient nation and its beleaguered people - a state that has seen more than one false dawn.

Maybe a French phrase is pertinent for another reason. There's an indelible historical link between Lebanon and France - President Emmanuel Macron visited Beirut in the immediate aftermath and pledged his support. Some even petitioned for a return to the French Mandate - surely a sign of desperation - nay exasperation.

For Dr Harry Hagopian things have to change. It's time to be brave and dynamic. A time for real leadership. A time to 'be' Lebanese - a time for citizenship. Get past the warlords and communities - think of Lebanon as a country of citizens.

This Middle East Analysis podcast takes our resident regional analyst, international lawyer Dr Harry Hagopian, around not just the Middle East but also North Africa.

We start with a coronavirus update discussing the impact of COVID-19 on the MENA region and the Arab world.

Then on to our sweep of country realities. Firstly it's the chaos and economic meltdown plaguing Lebanon - the beautiful land of cedars. A third of the population suffer below the poverty line, with daily power cuts, a lack of safe drinking water and limited healthcare. Why and what next?

On to Jordan, and in particular its relations with Israel and Palestine. Prime Minister Omar Razzaz made interesting comments on potential support for a One State solution - controversial to even utter it in some quarters.

We shift to North Africa and Egypt. Two points here - both focused on President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi. Firstly his handling of civil war-torn Libya and secondly the interesting case of the dam in Ethiopia being fed by water from the Nile. Water - the new gold perhaps?

We conclude by shining a light into Tunisia - a country not on its own in struggling to form a government. A challenge for new Prime Minister designate Hichem Mechichi.

Final word goes to Dr Harry Hagopian who wishes our listeners Eid Mubarak!

One of Dr Harry Hagopian's 'Intuitive Reactions' provides the meat in the sandwich of this 'Middle East Analysis - Extra' podcast.

In December 2019, US President Donald Trump signed into law the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act, also known as the Caesar Act, a piece of US legislation to sanction the Syrian government, including the president Bashar al-Assad, for war crimes against the Syrian population. The sanctions finally kicked in on 17 June.

But what impact does this have on Bashar al-Assad, his family and international sponsors? Is this designed to bring about regime change or regime attitude change?

To discuss this, Dr Hagopian is joined by Dr Ziad Majed, Program Coordinator for Middle East Pluralities at the American University of Paris. Professor Majed teaches Middle East studies and writes on Lebanese, Syrian and Arab affairs as well as on regional political transitions and crises.

Middle East Analysis reverts back to something of its normal modus operandi for June's podcast as international lawyer and MENA consultant Dr Harry Hagopian joins us in semi pandemic lockdown to discuss three realities challenging the Middle East North Africa region.

In just over ten minutes per segment, Dr Hagopian discusses the ongoing embargo of Qatar, the ever more dangerous regional conflict in Libya and the current financial meltdown in Syria and its impact on neighbour Lebanon.

Quick Navigate:

Introduction: START - 3m 5s

Embargo of Qatar: 3m 6s - 14m 13s

Libya: 14m 14s - 25m 23s

Syria: 25m 24s - 39m 40s

Back Announcement: 39m 41s to END

It's rather dangerous to assume anything in the Middle East North Africa region - least of all the shifting dynamics of the relationship between Israel and Palestine. One assumption is that, as early as 1 July, one of Israel's two unity government Prime Ministers, Benjamin Netanyahu, will announce the annexation of Palestinian land in the West Bank. At this point, any hope of a contiguous state for Palestinians will ebb away and with it hope for a long-term peaceful coexistence for both Israelis and Palestinians.

This hour-long Middle East Analysis brings our resident contributor Dr Harry Hagopian to MEA's virtual studio. Harry has immersed himself in this most delicate and frustrating peace process for almost 30 years.

But will the annexation actually happen? There are many actors in this drama... Donald Trump and son-in-law adviser Jared Kushner (currently more preoccupied by the protests over the killing of George Floyd and the November Presidential Elections), Israeli settler leaders in the West Bank, Arab neighbours in the region - specifically Jordan, the sluggish response from the EU, the international community and other institutions and that's before we discuss international law and inevitable comparisons with Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea.

All this is dissected - in his unique way - by Dr Harry Hagopian.

The anxiety surrounding the fast-spreading coronavirus COVID-19 is completely understandable. It's the lead headline in many a news context. So what's the impact on the Middle East North Africa region? The situation in Iran is well documented. Egypt has confirmed its first death - the first in Africa. Iraq and Yemen are already debilitated so any further strain on beleaguered resources will cost lives. Lebanon is living in the throes of an economic meltdown. We could go on...

Dr Harry Hagopian, our regular contributor, looks at the impact of the virus around the region.

In other news, we look at the elections in Israel, Turkey's retaliation against Syrian government forces in Idlib and the detention of Saudi royals by the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

The so-called 'Deal of the Century' has been released - US President Donald Trump's road map to peace for Israelis and Palestinians. Peace to Prosperity, as it's called, has been widely criticised as one-sided and, to those campaigning for self-determination for the Palestinian people - no deal at all.

Dr Harry Hagopian is our regular studio guest for Middle East Analysis. Harry cut his political teeth working for peace in the region. He was a second track negotiator during the Oslo process in the early 1990s and, like many, has long hoped for a peaceful solution that upholds the innate human dignity and rights of both Israelis and Palestinians.

But without offering Palestinians hope, is the Deal of the Century hope-less?

Just another new decade in the Middle East North Africa region.

This 45-minute Middle East Analysis podcast, the first of 2020, is titled in a way that makes you think of a rhythmic children’s pat-a-cake game or a mnemonic device for remembering something important.

Actually a lot of today’s topical discussion with international lawyer and regional commentator Dr Harry Hagopian falls under one or more of those four descriptors - escalate, de-escalate, oil and intervention.

The ‘intervention’ is obviously of the foreign kind as global powers seek to maintain or expand their interests in MENA.

We start with escalation and, potentially, de-escalation, by looking at the US-Iran crisis before moving across to North Africa and a warlord versus UN-backed government stand-off in Libya. Next comes Lebanon and its inability to form a government leading to something of a meltdown.

We conclude on a more positive note by looking at the seemingly painless succession in the sultanate of Oman.