Mission Forge

As Reported RIS MEDIA in the January 2023 edition from the NAR Power Broker Roundtable.

Moderator Is Kymber Lovett-Menkiti, President ot Keller Williams Capital Properties in Washington DC.

After a discussion about the impact of rising interest rates on the housing market. Is it a respite, a worry signal, simply cyclical?  She querried 4 power brokers about how they are supporting their agents in this changing environment.

Christian Barnes, President/CEO of Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate in Kansas City--   Shortened, This is not 2008, all real estate is local.  Get past the headlines.  Inventory is tight and still leading to multiple offers.  Things are normalizing a little allowing for some negotiation

Howard Hoby Hanna President of HH--There is no gloom and doom in todays market, regardless of Headlines. Inventory is still low and buyer demand is still strong.  Plenty of Business to be had. Control the message, work on the basics, and set serious goals.

Nancy Robinson VP of Christies International Real Estate In California--It is a transactional market and agents need to focus on local data. We encourage agents to embrace their social platforms and lean into their sphere.

Mike Burns Broker/owner of RE/MAX Professionals in Littleton CO--His market is still very robust. Buyers are looking for value and finding it more.  Seller are becoming more realistic. Overall, average sales price has remained Stable.

KLM: My mindset as a leader is framing the message that there are plenty of home sales happening now.  Here is how you get your fair share.

MB: Agents are still in shock about the rapid change Education is the key to get past that. How do you price approriately. What are alternatives to typical financing? How can you connect in meaningful ways?

NR: Work where you play--engage and connect. Be visable. Back to basics with a spin. Supply agents with current leading economic data and short video resources.

CB: This is not a passive market.  Encourage agents to find new ways to stay in touch. Make more phone calls.  Knock on doors and do pop bys or to say hello.  Host a contest you can promote on Social Media. Be a local market expert.

HH: we always focus on fundamentals and provide powerful tools to support agents to be the local experts. Rate reduction strategies and other guaruntees are powerful incentives.

Bold Prediction notes brought to us by Atlantic Bay Mortgage

Dr. Yun, Chief Economist from National Association of Realtors.

Stats Pending home sales coming down due to higher interest rates.  Often there will be a burst of pent up demand pendings will stabilize.

Interest rates connection to the 10-yr. treasury yields.  30 year fixed rate hit a 20 yr. high.  Buyer confidence is there but they cannot afford what they want. Too much money in the system.

The two are connected as they move together as the government pays a cert

The spread between the two should be 2% but now is much larger, only seen two other times.  It should erase and turn back to normal in the short term.  Rates should drop into the 5% range.

Past the 7% peak, Fed activity is already baked in to bond and equity market.

Advice for Realtors in 2023 Dr. Yun says housing is cyclical.  Prepare for up and down, set some aside.  Look to stabilize in 2023.

Buffini’s take on the data

Fewer transactions, not catastrophically fewer.  25% fewer in Canada  (2/3 of millennials will buy a home in the next 2-3 years).  Rents are crushing people and will continue to rise. Since they are rising higher than the price of a house, this will push renters into the buyer market

More Contract cancellations, 63000 contracts failed in July 2022, August blew up in 64000 august, 60000 in September, 60000 in October.  Many due to the competency of the agents in the transaction.  Practices have gotten sloppy. Skills are rusty.  1 in 5 transactions are blowing up, largely due to sloppy agents.

Fewer agents in the business,  turkey can fly in a hurricane, 200,000 will drop out by the end of the year.  

Brought to us by Movement Mortgage
Barry Habib  2023 Market predictions

Housing related to rates, does this mean a housing bubble.  Inflation is the key driver, not fed increases/decreases.

Quantitative easing also impacted rates, but that is over.  Once that stopped AND inflation increased rates went up.

Inflation outlook.  Too may $ chasing too few good.  90% of extra dollars is on credit, so the fed slow that down with rate hikes.  This slows demand.

Savings are increasing, inventories of goods are increasing, at high level than before.  This will mean sales to come.  Too much inventory will help lower inflation.

The CPI or consumer price index has two measures, the core rate and the consumer rate.  The core rate is 6% year over year.  Made up of 12 months of readings. The new lower readings replace the older readings from 12 months ago.  The expectation is that the lower readings in the next few months will keep inflation coming down.  39% of the core rate is housing. Shelter is a lagging indicator, but the lower housing figures will play out in the late winter and early spring.

Short term and mod term the trend for rates is lower.

Importance of the 10 year treasury note.

The high spike was a bet on them coming down fast and hard.  The spread increased betting on refis.  Fascinating.

Prediction is that around the corner in the 1st half the 10 year treasury will get nearer to 3% and the premium of the spread will vanish and rates will hit 5%.  Then the flood gates will open on the pent up demand.

Take risks more than you think you should

Confront others less then you think you should

Stand up for your self as in advocate

Listen to all feedback and consider what others are telling you. positive/negative or otherwise

if/when you listen you will be told and be among the few.

my best life has come from my family.
 
Manners are powerful.

I don't think there is an exclusivity to a spiritual experience. and that leads me to think that all spiritual experiences are intertwined.

After a certain age every man is responsible for his face. Albert Camus   nice balance of personal responsibility and capability

By Aditi Sangal, Adrienne Vogt, Maureen Chowdhury and Elise Hammond, CNN

Updated 10:06 p.m. ET, January 5, 2023

• The House has adjourned until noon Friday after Rep. Kevin McCarthy suffered a stinging 11th defeat in the race for House speaker. 
• After three days of voting, this is now the longest speaker contest in 164 years. 
• McCarthy has continued to negotiate with a group of hardline Republicans who've derailed his bid, proposing key concessions in his push to get more votes.
• About this process: A nominee needs 218 votes, but the number required could change if members withhold their votes. The House can't kick off the new Congress or swear in new members until a speaker is elected.

Opposition: Twenty Republican lawmakers, despite continued talks and concessions, have so far declined to support McCarthy. Republicans again nominated Rep. Byron Donalds for four of five of Thursday’s voting rounds. After getting a few votes on the eighth ballot, Rep. Kevin Hern was also officially nominated for the ninth, 10th and 11th rounds of voting. Notably, Rep. Matt Gaetz voted for former President Donald Trump during the seventh and eighth ballots, and he nominated the former president for speaker in the 11th ballot. Trump only received one vote in that round.

·  “Motion to vacate”: In a series of new concessions first reported by CNN Wednesday night, McCarthy agreed to propose a rules change that would allow just one member to call for a vote to oust a sitting speaker, sources say. McCarthy had initially proposed a five-member threshold, down from current conference rules that require half of the GOP to call for such a vote. 

·  Other concessions: McCarthy also agreed to allow for more members of the Freedom Caucus to serve on the powerful House Rules Committee. While McCarthy’s allies are willing to swallow most of the deals, they are drawing a line in the sand over one issue: committee gavels for the holdouts. Later, in a meeting with moderates, McCarthy downplayed the concessions he’s made so far.

A historic floor fight: This is the longest speakership bid in more than 160 years. It took nine ballots for Rep. Frederick Gillett of Massachusetts to be elected speaker in 1923. And in 1849, the House had been in session so long without being able to elect a speaker – 19 days – that members voted to elect their speaker with a plurality rather than a majority. Members ultimately confirmed the plurality election with a majority vote.

NYT  Jan. 5, 2023Updated 11:09 p.m. ET

Kevin McCarthy’s speakership bid failed for an 11th time, after his latest concessions failed to win over enough Republican hard-liners. The chamber has been deadlocked for three days and cannot move on to any other business until a speaker is chosen. Lawmakers will return at noon Friday.

11th Speaker Vote Tally »

 |   | Total | Dem. | Rep. |  |   |   |   |   | Needed to win
 |   |   |   |   | 
 |   |   |   |   | 
 |   |   |   |   |
 |   |   |   |   | 
 |   |   |   |   |  

Note: To win, a member must receive the majority of votes cast for a person, not counting “present” votes. The Constitution specifies that House members choose the speaker, but the speaker does not have to be a current or even a former representative.

After a humiliating three-day stretch of 11 consecutive defeats in an election that is now the most protracted such contest since 1859, Mr. McCarthy dispatched his emissaries to hammer out a deal with the ultraconservative rebels, including agreeing to conditions he had previously refused to countenance in a last-ditch effort to sway a critical mass of defectors.

They included allowing a single lawmaker to force a snap vote at any time to oust the speaker, a rule that would effectively codify a standing threat that Mr. McCarthy would be at the mercy of the right wing at all times, and could be removed instantly if he crossed them.

As he left the House floor on Thursday night, Mr. McCarthy said that the negotiations had yielded “a little movement” and denied that the concessions he had offered would undermine his speakership.

“Has it undercut the power of all the other speakers?” he replied, after a reporter asked whether allowing for a snap vote for his removal would weaken him. “So why would it cut mine? It’d only be a weaker speaker if I was afraid of it.”

In fact, the specter of such a vote allowed right-wing lawmakers to push out John A. Boehner, the Ohio Republican, from the speakership in 2015, and the threat hung heavily over his successor, Paul D. Ryan, during his tenure.

The Republican leader had also committed to allowing the right-wing faction to pick a third of the party’s members on the powerful Rules Committee, which controls what legislation reaches the floor and in what form, according to a person who has been involved in the talks, who described them on condition of anonymity. Mr. McCarthy also said he would open government spending bills to a freewheeling debate in which any lawmaker could force votes on proposed changes, including those designed to scuttle or sink the measure.

The rebels have agitated for that change in an effort to give greater power over the federal purse strings to rank-and-file lawmakers, rather than the senior leaders who normally have carte blanche over such legislation. It could make it all but impossible to pass a spending bill in the House, leading to a government shutdown.

by The Hill staff - 01/05/23 8:09 PM ET

Lawmakers are still in negotiations but are touting progress.

The result will bring the House Speakership fight to a 12th ballot, tying it for the fifth-longest in history. The House will reconvene at noon on Friday.

Conservative holdouts mum on p...

Learn your options
Reels Instagram and FB, Tiktok, Stories, Youtube Shorts, 

GOAL-make you relevant and contemporary by using the 'coin of the realm' in a way that is not threatening to your sensibilities. 

Make a goal   minimum of 1 per month, increase to 1 every week or 10 days

Do not appear or speak in these videos (you can but you do not have to)

Learn the platforms and the value of the sound track option, use various templates
Free Audio tracks are very powerful

Keep in mind you are telling a very quick story, think 20-30 seconds 

7 content Ideas

1-Where I am that is interesting

2-What I see that is interesting

3-My listing-----

4-Fun day/interesting day in real estate

5-Pet Antics

6-A local business

7-A local event

8-Tap a trend and ride the wave.  Bonus.

It's been the drum beat for years. Get started on video. It's not too late. If you do not start soon, you will miss the boat. 

I know this causes anxiety in agents who struggle with not starting video. I talk to them and they beat them selves up for not being involved in video.

 So I have this click bate podcast title... (I added the ? to be more realistic) Don't use video in your RE. I have to qualify that. The benefits of video are pretty clear: It can separate you from your competition Help your prospects know you before they work with you. Help your prospects make initial decisions about working with you before you have met them. It can help market your property It can be fun and free and far more effective than other expensive marketing. 

But I know a lot of agents who do not use video or even social. And they do just fine, better than fine. And the reason I say, don't do video is that you only have so much time and energy. If video is not working for you, then you need to put energy into what does work for you. Identify the campaigns you can get behind since they resonate with your prospects. If you can harvest the resonance then you are off to the races. 

Imagine if you spent time beating the video horse and it lead to no business for you? Meanwhile you had other campaigns which were effective and you were sidetracked trying to get comfortable with your video work. I am going to finish out the way I started but first let me say there are ways to do simple videos that do not need your face and voice to be the center piece. 

Sometimes I think it boils down agents thinking VIDEO only means them talking about a subject. But video has blown up into a million different options. However, the point is, do not do video if you have other things working or if you can try some other strong marketing ideas. I do not want agents causing unneeded anxiety in their lives over this topic. Just agree that video is not for you and move on and get the job done other ways.

Use of Google calendar:  18 ways to streamline & be much more productive. Work Smarter, not harder. #missionforge
1. Calendar can be shared with others via permissions-save time, polite,professional
2. Events can be emailed to others to act as invitation or confirmation,polite, professional, eliminates error
3. Calendar can be printed or saved to PDF-saves time and effort when documentingfor taxes or other purpose.
4. Can be used to document mileage to business events-avoid redundancy, ease ofuse, ease of access
5. Using address of the event you can link straight to directions for the trip-safety,convenience, documentation
6. Entry of a contact phone number will let you dial straight from calendar-safety,convenience, documentation, ease of access.
7. Entry of a contact email will let you compose email straight from calendar- safety,convenience, documentation, ease of access.
8. Make notes directly after or during an event for later reference-ultraconvenient and more accurate.  Copy andpaste later.
9. Import other calendars to be a part of yours-big time saver for adding otherevents to your calendar..see conflicts right away.
10. Sync with desktop/tablet versions for uniformity…super important—a must.
11. Reminders and alarms for events or calls/dial backs-critical step for timeblockers and also to keep small and large task on target for delivery.
12. Easy to repeat events or reschedule events and appointments-
13. Add tasks
14. SEARCHABILITY--when did I meet with Joseph? 
15. Streamlining-no more appointment cards, bulky calendars, post it notes,paper scraps.

16. There is no risk of loss.

17. add files to events

18. add specific calendars, listing , buyers,prospecting, pop by, sphere, etc.

10 FAST and LOW COST things to do between now and 1/1/23 to start the hear on the right foot~START NOW!

$30 Send 20 notecards to 20 past clients (or prospects)—message, it’s been a while, how have you been.  Wishing you the best new year.  No biz card, no mention of RE.

$75 5 Pop-bys A level $15 each

$25 5 pop-ys B level $5 each

$5 5 pop-bys C level $1 each, such as 7-11 gift card or Starbucks Giftcard

$12 Take your two favorite vendors for coffee, discuss your mutual goals

FREE Identify 15 RE/MAX referral partners across the country on Social Media and start a campaign.  They should be productive and active on Social Media.

$20 Hand out 200 business cards (10 a day) between now and the Kick Of Office meeting.

FREE  Wear your nametag EVERYDAY.

$10 personalize your license plate to Real Estate.

FREE-identify and listen to positive business podcasts.   Suggestions, Brian Buffini, Zero to Diamond, Turn the Dial, Darren Daily, etc.

$60 BONUS # 11 subscribe to photofy App or Canva App for great Digitial Content Creation. RE/MAX special.....enter your RE/MAX ($60 annually is increasing to $99 on 1/15/23).  Photofy will allow you to get a solid foothold in Social with excellent tools and fantastic Graphics.  Digital exposure is going to be critical and will give you far more exposure than any print advertising.  Sign up via MaxCenter and you will need your RE/MAX number from your profile.

Total  $237

10 FAST and FREE  things to do between now and 1/1/23 to start the hear on the right foot~START NOW!

Review all profiles to ensure they are up to date with current content, best recent picture, most recent bio. 

Comb CRM for deletions, additions, updates.  Make a point to add more than you think you can.

Look at all of your social platforms and make sure they reflect your personal brand image (business pages) and also are current with a recent post.  

Make an appointment with your broker to map out your 2023 business plan.

Unsubscribe to 20 annoying emails.

On paper, list your 3 most important/essential/vital business activities.

On paper, list your 3 biggest distractions from those activities.

Scan your text messages back as far as they go and look for dropped conversations that can be rekindled, old friends who need to hear from you, past clients or prospects who you need to say HI to.

Start gathering closing CDs and HUDs from 2022 to send to clients in January (in advance of tax season)

Map your 2023 by adding important dates to your calendar now, ie. Tax deadlines, important meetings (such as RE/MAX Capital office meeting 1/5 at 1030am), training sessions, travel plans, personal events.

#11  Bonus.  Decide what you want to achieve in 2023. Break down your needs and build up your income thoughts.  Develop a mantra you can repeat throughout the day.  IT IS UNNACCEPTABLE FOR ME TO CLOSE FEWER THAN ____ TRANSACTIONS.   Or  IT IS UNACCEPTABLE FOR MY BUSINESS TO EARN LESS THAN $________. 

Ties of this story to Real estate have peaked my interest.  

#1 was the notice of bond being tied to his parents home on the Stanford campus

#2 was the use of the word commingling of funds, which is also a big no-no word in Real Estate

#3 was alleged use of those funds to by real estate in other countries such as the Bahamas.

Bankman-Fried [SBF] will be back at the home he grew up in, a house in the middle of Stanford’s campus, according to federal political filings that disclose the address. He will remain under house arrest, but can leave for substance use treatment, exercise and mental health purposes. 

US District Judge Gabriel Gorenstein signed off on the deal Thursday, allowing the disgraced FTX founder and ex-CEO — who is staring down a slew of charges which carry a sentence of up to 115 years — to leave New York for his home state.

In granting him pretrial release, Gorenstein said Bankman-Fried had "achieved sufficient notoriety that it would be impossible" for him to engage in further financial schemes or to hide without being recognized.

Nicolas Roos, a prosecutor, told Gorenstein that the bail package would require Bankman-Fried to surrender his passport and remain in home confinement at his parents' home in Palo Alto, California. He would also be required to undergo regular mental health treatment and evaluation.

Cohen [SBF Atty] said he agreed with prosecutors' proposed bail conditions. He noted that Bankman-Fried's parents - both Stanford Law School professors - would co-sign the bond and post the equity in their home as assurance for his return to court. Both appeared at the hearing.

The record-breaking bond would be partially secured by Bankman-Fried’s parents’ interest in their five-bedroom, three-bathroom home — which Zillow estimates to be worth north of $4 million — and that equity would have to be paid within three weeks, Gorenstein said.

"My client remained where he was, he made no effort to flee," Cohen [SBF Atty]  said.

The bond is meant to ensure that if Bankman-Fried flees, the government could confiscate the family's assets - including their Palo Alto home - up to $250 million. Reuters could not determine the family's total net worth.

Bankman-Fried said at a New York Times conference on Nov. 30, following the exchange's collapse, that he had $100,000 in his bank account.

Roos [prosecutor] said that evidence at trial would consist of testimony from "multiple cooperating witnesses," [Ellison and Wang] as well as thousands of pages of written communications.

Just hours after Bankman-Fried's plane from the Bahamas took off, Damian Williams, the top federal prosecutor in Manhattan, announced that two of Bankman-Fried's closest associates - former Alameda CEO Caroline Ellison and FTX co-founder Gary Wang - had pleaded guilty and were cooperating with prosecutors.

The alleged crypto grifter will be able to leave his parents’ house for exercise, mental health and substance abuse treatment. He will also be allowed to shop online, but is banned from making any non-sanctioned payments above $1,000 that aren’t legal fees, prosecutors said. 

Assistant US Attorney [the PROSECUTOR!!!] Nick Roos argued in favor of the house arrest, saying the fact that Bankman-Fried “voluntarily consented to extradition” from the Bahamas “should be given weight.”

His $250 million bond is 25 times larger than the collateral that officials demanded from disgraced Ponzi scheme financier Bernie Madoff in 2009 [Judge Gabriel Gorenstein same judge giving bail to SBF].

Damian Williams [lead prosecutor with Roos], the United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York, and Michael J. Driscoll, the Assistant Director in Charge of the New York Field Office of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (“FBI”), announced the extradition of SAMUEL BANKMAN-FRIED, a/k/a “SBF,” yesterday from the Bahamas.[1] 

Also unsealed are the guilty pleas of CAROLINE ELLISON, former CEO of Alameda Research, and GARY WANG, co-founder and former Chief Technology Officer of FTX.  ELLISON and WANG pled guilty before U.S. District Judge Ronnie Abrams on December 19, 2022, to charges arising from their participation in schemes to defraud FTX’s customers and investors, and related crimes, and are cooperating with the Government.

Mr. Williams praised the investigative work of the FBI and thanked the FBI for its partnership in the extradition of Mr. Bankman-Fried and its investigation of wrongdoing associated with Alameda Research and FTX.  Mr. Williams also thanked the Bahamas’ government as well as the United States Embassy in the Bahamas for their extraordinary efforts in the arrest and return of the defendant to the United States to face these charges.  He also expressed appreciation for the assistance of the Justice Department’s Office of International Affairs.

This case is being handled by the Office’s Securities and Commodities Fraud Task Force. Assistant U.S. Attorneys Nicolas Roos and Danielle Sassoon are in charge of the prosecution.  The Money Laundering and Transnational Criminal Enterprises Unit and Assistant U.S. Attorneys Samuel Raymond and Thane Rehn also contributed to the investigation.

The allegations in the Indictment against BANKMAN-FRIED are merely accusations, and the defendant is presumed innocent unless and until proven guilty.

The [OLD CASE] prosecutor [Marc Litt] who put Bernie Madoff in federal prison for running a Ponzi scheme that defrauded investors of billions of dollars said Friday it’s “highly unusual” for Sam Bankman-Fried to be speaking publicly about the November collapse of his crypto platform FTX amid widespread allegations of fraud.

“It’s highly unusual for a subject of a high-profile criminal investigation to be conducting media interviews and public appearances during which he discusses the conduct being investigated,” Marc Litt, who prosecuted Madoff for the Southern District of New York in 2009, told The Hill. 

“No criminal defense attorney [Cohen in this case] I know would recommend doing that, and no matter how careful Mr. Bankman-Fried thinks he can be, it’s almost inevitable that something he says will come back to haunt him if charges are ever brought,” he said.

[from 2008] NEW YORK, Dec 17 (Reuters) - Bail conditions for Bernard Madoff, the financier accused of one of the biggest frauds in Wall Street history, have been modified to include electronic monitoring, according to court documents released on Wednesday.

U.S. District Court Magistrate Judge Gabriel Gorenstein [same judge giving bail to SBF] said Madoff’s wife Ruth was required to surrender her pas...