Moody’s Talks - Global Economy Unwrapped

Surging government bond yields continue to raise alarm across the global economy. Gaurav, Andrew and Kamil unpack the latest sell-off in global bond markets and assess the relative importance of inflation fears, fiscal concerns and changing expectations for short-term interest rates. They explore the ongoing fallout from the Iran conflict, the prospect of further rate hikes by the ECB and Bank of England, and why investors increasingly seem to believe rates could settle at a higher level than before. Despite the volatility, the team concludes that bond markets may be sending a surprisingly reassuring message about both central bank credibility and the resilience of the global economy.

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In this episode of The Global Economy Unwrapped, Stefan and Denise join Gaurav to unpack two big stories. First, they examine the much-anticipated Trump-Xi summit, concluding that while the optics were carefully choreographed, the outcome was largely a continuation of the existing US-China stalemate on trade, technology, Taiwan and AI. The discussion explores why stability may be the best either side can hope for.
The conversation then turns to the Middle East, where higher oil prices, disrupted shipping routes and continuing regional tensions are creating growing challenges for the world economy. The team discusses energy security, inflation risks, China's changing role in global oil demand, and the resilience of Gulf economies despite ongoing instability. Along the way, there is also time for pandas, shark-infested beaches, and a healthy dose of "panda-monium".

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With the U.K. continuing to confound expectations, Gaurav is joined by David and Andrew to assess a run of surprisingly resilient growth data and ask whether the economy is finally breaking out of its recent pattern of strong starts to the year followed by weak finishes. Consumer spending and business investment have both held up well, but rising energy prices, a soft labour market and slowing real wage growth still pose threats. The team debates the inflation outlook, whether markets have become too hawkish on Bank of England rate hikes, and whether another round of tax hikes is looming in October’s budget.

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The European economy refuses to cooperate with the pessimists. Despite conflict in the Middle East, high energy prices and persistent uncertainty, euro zone growth has remained surprisingly solid with consumers proving resilient despite another blow to their purchasing power. Gaurav, Barbara, Andrew and Kamil discuss if the good news is sustainable, what is driving the recovery in sentiment, and whether weakness in investment remains a concern. After another debate over Ireland’s outsized influence on the euro zone GDP figures, and how the U.K. fits into the picture, the conversation turns to inflation, rising interest rates and whether Europe risks being left behind as the AI boom gathers pace elsewhere.

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Gaurav, Stefan and Denise take the temperature of the Asia-Pacific economy, where the AI boom keeps powering ahead and Taiwan's exports have overtaken Japan's for the first time. The team digs into what's driving the region's K-shaped split, with chip-heavy economies like Taiwan, Singapore and Malaysia posting growth north of 5% even as wages stay soft, consumers hold back, and other sectors languish. They ask whether the boom is genuinely productive or just papers over the cracks, drawing uneasy parallels with Dutch disease and tulip mania as fears of an AI bubble grow. From weak currencies, to the 'RAMpocalypse' memory shortage that makes everyday electronics pricier, to a jump in inflation, a fresh wave of rate hikes and the rising threat from climate shocks, they weigh whether Asia's growth is on solid ground or simply hides the strain beneath.

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In this episode of Global Economy Unwrapped, the GEU team tours the world, looking at risks. The global economy continues to hold up despite a number of large shocks and potential problems, so have markets become inured to geopolitical risk? The team discusses the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, persistent trade tensions, cracks in the AI boom, rising yields, and the potential for monetary policy missteps. They conclude that the global economy looks surprisingly good, but the risks are far from trivial.

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Europeans may be gloomy about the economy, but they're still packing their bags. In this episode of Meet the Experts, Gaurav Ganguly and Barbara Teixeira Araujo are joined by Olia Kuranova and Jessica Demel to unpack the surprising resilience of European tourism. Why are holidays proving "non-negotiable" despite weak consumer confidence, inflation and geopolitical tensions? And how are heatwaves, wildfires and climate change beginning to reshape where, when and how Europeans travel? From revenge tourism to overtourism, and from beach holidays to climate adaptation, this episode explores the forces driving European tourism and the challenges that could redefine it.

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How resilient is commercial real estate in a world of geopolitical shocks, shifting work patterns, and rapid advances in AI? Dominic Brown, Head of International Research at Cushman & Wakefield joins GEU for a wide-ranging discussion on the forces reshaping global property markets. From booming office demand in India and ultra-tight vacancy rates in Tokyo to the divergent fortunes of cities, sectors, and countries, the conversation explores why real estate has become more local, more granular, and more varied than ever. The episode also tackles AI's impact on office space, the race to build data centres, and whether automation will shrink workplaces or transform them. Along the way, Dominic explains how investors identify opportunities across global markets and why macroeconomics still matters, even in an increasingly fragmented world.

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Gaurav, Kamil and Andrew take stock of the recent macroeconomic data for the euro zone. They talk about growth coming slightly above expectations, and why the data haven't really shown any impact from the Iran conflict. They conclude that while the exact number was a slight upside surprise relative to the forecast, it was in line with the broader macroeconomic narrative. They then turn to inflation, where data mostly came in line with expectations, but weather and energy markets are providing new headwinds. They conclude with a discussion of expectations for the European Central Bank and Bank of England for the rest of this year.

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A new prime minister in Downing Street, renewed conflict between the US and Iran, volatile oil markets and another round of US tariffs: it has been an eventful few weeks for the global economy. Andrew Hunter, Denise Cheok and Suren Vardanyan join Gaurav to assess whether Andy Burnham’s plans for devolution, investment and tax reform can lift the UK’s weak growth prospects. The discussion then turns to the Strait of Hormuz, the fragile flow of Gulf oil and a controversial proposal for voluntary transit payments to Iran. Finally, the team examines the latest US trade measures and the risk of further tariff escalation. The world looks marginally riskier—but economies, particularly in Europe, continue to show a resistance to recession.

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.

To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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