Gaurav and the EMEA team are back for a surprisingly upbeat roundup of all things Europe. Barbara and Kamil discuss the better-than-expected fourth-quarter GDP figures, with even Germany finally showing signs of a revival. With the business surveys improving and Germany’s huge fiscal package set to feed through, is the euro zone economy set for more robust growth in 2026 than previously thought? Meanwhile, the immediate crisis over Greenland appears to have faded with President Trump dropping his tariff threats, but Andrew questions whether this was driven more by domestic U.S. politics rather than Europe’s response. Finally, the team debate whether the EU-India trade deal could mark a turning point in Europe’s push to reduce its dependence on the U.S.

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Gaurav, Denise, and Stefan get together to discuss what drove Asia-Pacific in 2025 and what lies ahead in 2026. Exports surprised on the upside, with China posting a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus despite higher U.S. tariffs. Denise points to rerouting and shifting supply chains, while Gaurav argues that Chinese competitiveness does much of the work. The outlook for 2026 looks far less comfortable. Geopolitics and tariffs dominate the risks, with U.S.-China relations facing a key test ahead of the planned Trump-Xi meeting in April. Tensions closer at home are another concern, as Beijing ramps up its diplomatic feud with Japan through new export restrictions and tighter rare earth screening. This hasn’t hurt the popularity of Japan’s Prime Minister Takaichi, who has called a snap election that will likely see her party gain seats. But volatile bond markets and an oversold yen complicate the year ahead and leave Stefan fielding calls from “everyone and their dog” about JGBs.

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Gaurav is joined by Barbara, Andrew and Kamil for a deep dive discussion on the European outlook. Will 2026 be the year that euro zone growth finally picks up momentum? The team offer a number of reasons for optimism, including the fading impact from last year’s U.S. tariffs, lower interest rates, an apparent upturn in the global industrial cycle and the huge fiscal boost set to feed through in Germany. But as the rapidly-evolving crisis over Greenland illustrates, there are still plenty of ways this cautiously optimistic outlook could be derailed.

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Gaurav and the GEU team unpack the key risks facing the global economy in 2026, but it soon becomes clear that economic forces risk being sidelined by geopolitics. How will the extraordinary U.S. actions in Venezuela affect oil markets and could it embolden Russia or China to make similar moves? Will the U.S. really seek to annex Greenland? And will 2026 bring more tariff pain, or is territorial expansion by the major powers now a bigger threat? With AI and a frothy looking U.S. stock market adding to the uncertainty, the team warn that 2026 is shaping up to be another turbulent year for the global economy.

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Andrew, Barbara, Denise, and Stefan join Gaurav for a festive deep dive into global manufacturing. They explore how China became the world’s workshop, climbing the value chain and reshaping the development model pioneered by Japan and South Korea. The conversation tackles China’s dominance in green tech, its implications for global investment, and whether emerging markets like Brazil and Vietnam can carve out their own niches. The team also asks if globalisation has gone too far, and what that means for the future of trade.

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Professor Kazuto Suzuki of the University of Tokyo, and Director of the Institute of Geoeconomics joins GEU to discuss the future of globalisation. A wide-ranging discussion ensues which looks back over 2025 and looks ahead over the next few years. Globalisation remains an unstoppable force, despite fears that policy will be increasingly used as a weapon by countries to protect their geopolitical and economic interests. For the Global South in particular, the future continues to look bright. 

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Gaurav and the EMEA team return to unpack a busy few weeks of economic and geopolitical news. The latest data suggest the euro zone economy is showing signs of life, but the continued reluctance of consumers to spend remains a concern. The discussion turns to the U.S. and Russia’s bombshell 28-point peace plan for Ukraine and the whirlwind of negotiations that have ensued. While a lasting resolution to the conflict still looks further away than ever, the team outline the troubling implications for European security of the U.S. administration’s growing interest in investment deals with Russia.

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Gaurav is joined by Andrew and David to unpack the economic implications of the U.K. budget. After weeks of speculation and rumours of painful tax hikes, the government’s latest fiscal plans imply a less severe tightening than many had feared. But the team struggle to identify anything in the budget likely to move the needle on the U.K.’s longer-term growth prospects. And although Chancellor Rachel Reeves looks to have survived her latest test by the bond markets, there are still plenty of reasons for concern over the U.K.’s public finances.

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Gaurav, Denise and Stefan unpack U.S. President Trump’s late-October swing through Asia and what it means for who makes what—and who buys it. The centrepiece was the Trump-Xi meeting, which produced a brief ceasefire in the tariff fight and set the stage for another round of talks in early 2026. In Southeast Asia, Trump signed four market-access and procurement deals that overwhelmingly favoured the U.S., while his stops in Japan and Korea delivered more photo-ops than breakthroughs. The team asks whether any of this can really shift the structural imbalance between the world’s producer, China, and the world’s buyer, the U.S. They also wrestle with the practicalities of countries committing to buy planes Boeing can’t build, and whether those U.S.-bound investment promises deserve a seat at the G20 table.

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LatAm team members Juan Pablo Fuentes and Jesse Rogers join Gaurav to take stock of the 2025-2026 electoral cycle. Gaurav and Juan Pablo discuss the economic landscape in Argentina following Javier Milei’s midterm victory. The conversation then turns to Lula, tariffs, and the economic outlook for Brazil. Jesse falls for Lula’s recent charm offensive. The discussion concludes with a discussion of Latin America’s medium-term prospects, and potential silver linings of upcoming elections in Brazil, Colombia, and Peru.

Click here for a link to the latest LatAm webinar

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