Mooney on Irish Politics

Though much of the political process speculation will focus on whether the election will be held in February 2025 or November 2024, I think it should instead look at why so many centrist and MoTR voters look at SF, FG and FF and say... none of the above.

This is my 7th annual Summer political reading list. Most of the books on this year’s list have been published within the past 12-18 months. All cover broadly political topics, or are (imho) of interest to those with an interest in politics, be it Irish, European, American or global. The choices are mine. I have read some, not all, but all are of interest to me.

I look my elections checklist and see how the results stack up against it. I see the predictions I got right (a few) and the ones I got wrong... and why. I also comment on the current petulant row over newspaper polling.

There will be another podcast soon, looking at the Fianna Fáil Local and European results in more detail.

In this (short) episode I offer my checklist of what to watch out for as the ballot boxes are opened this week-end:

1. Watch the Limerick Mayoral Result

2. Compare party results with GE2020, not LE2019

3. The SF vote total is important, but don't allow FF or FG to use that to deflect from their results

4. See who emerges as the biggest party or faction in local govt - how far will FF slide?

5. Don't see this an inflection point... but it may give hints as to how close we are to one?

There are no election predictions in this podcast as many voters have yet to decide - instead I focus on what to watch out for as we enter the last week of campaigning. I look at how party leaders will try to manage expectations, especially around seat losses and failed gains... but above all I stress that this is NOT a mid term election - the next general election is 9 months away, at most, and could be called within 4 or 5 months.

In this episode I return to a topic I have discussed many times - Irish Defence. Though there are some signs that things may be about to improve, the pace is no where near fast enough as the Minister responsible is more pre-occupied with positioning and messaging, than on tackling the real problems. There is also an article to accompany this podcast.

In this episode I analyze and examine the recent Árd Fheis speeches of Tánaiste Micheál Martin TD and [now] Taoiseach Simon Harris TD... and am not overly impressed by either, as pieces of political communications.

There is a text version to accompany this podcast

In this episode I ask why does the nation's business have to go on hold for another 12 days while Fine Gael struggles with who/what it stand for? I also comment briefly on the circumstances of the resignation of Sir Jeffrey Donaldson as DUP leader. Read the column on which this podcast is largely based.

Leo Varadkar's resignation as Taoiseach and Fine Gael leader has thrown Irish politics into turmoil... things will not just continue as they were... and the other government coalition parties need to grasp this reality... fast. This podcast is based on this recent column